How rise of independents threatens political parties

As the country prepares to go to the polls next month, the political landscape appears to have undergone an earthquake as the number of independent candidates in the all the key elective contests – from presidential to parliamentary and local government elections – has rocked multiparty politics.
This has also rekindled debate about the legacy of the ‘individual merit’ concept introduced under President Museveni’s “all inclusive” Movement system of government.

At least four of the eight presidential candidates are independents. And in the Parliament and district LC5 race, there are 1,102 independents competing against 1,022 flag bearers for the various political parties, a new development that has put independents as a third force in the limelight ahead of the general election.
However, the emerging power shift, particularly in the 10th Parliament, can be explained by last year’s ruling National Resistance Movement’s (NRM) chaotic primaries.

Sunday Monitor’s analysis of the Electoral Commission’s list of 1,747 nominated candidates for parliamentary race reveals that there are 909 aspirants running as independents in the directly elected constituencies across the country and of the 405 parliamentary district women aspirants, 200 are independents.
At the district local council race, 193 independents are contesting against 183 LC5 contestants carrying the various party flags.

The 10th Parliament will be composed of 458 seats. However, the fact that independents have the majority (909 aspirants) in the parliamentary race, some analysts have predicted a “complex situation” where independents dominate all political parties in the House, even as most of the senior legislators and lawyers explain that in the constitutional framework, even with a majority, independents remain independent of one another.
But in the event that the voters decide to send majority independents to the 10th Parliament, analysts say, this development will be a confirmation that most of the voters are nervous and sceptical of all the political party alternatives on offer, and might compel those in authority to propose the relevant constitutional amendments to save the multiparty politics from the third voice in the House.

Illuminating on the likelihood of having majority independents in the 10th Parliament, Prof Juma Waswa Balunywa, the principal of Makerere University Business School, says the presence of independents in Parliament reinforces the argument that most of our politicians are not driven and guided by ideology.

“Ideology is a unifying factor. Independents may have disagreements, but since they have common interests they will stay together,” Prof Balunywa says, adding that “Because they are not ideologically motivated, they think they can stand on their own. This means they just represent themselves. They have only their interest to uphold.”
Former Parliamentary Rules Committee chairperson, Mr Fox Odoi (independent, West Budama North) explains that “majority” means the party of the President elected by majority, even if his or her party may be a minority in Parliament.
Therefore, Mr Odoi and other lawyers are of the view that the question of having a “hung Parliament” where no political party has the majority to make government won’t arise since Uganda is running a proportional representation system.

But in the event that any of four independent presidential candidates wins the February 18 general election, there will be a possibility of a coalition government for Parliament to work.
Explaining the rise of independents, NRM Caucus spokesperson Denis Hamson Obua (Ajuri), one of the victims of the October 2015 NRM primaries, attributes “the political earthquake” to “individual merit hangover” he says is still alive and kicking.

“For now we have gone multiparty but one of our political legs has remained in the individual merit or Movement system era [and this has in a way confused things],” Mr Obua says. “We need to go full blast multiparty…. either through proportional representation by political parties or candidates being sponsored or proposed by political parties just like in many multiparty jurisdictions.”

After the 1996 presidential elections, Mr Museveni’s government introduced a political arrangement where every deserving Ugandan would contest for elective political office without necessarily being inhibited by the ‘excess baggage’ that came along with party affiliation.

But with the restoration of multiparty politics after the 2005 referendum, dominant political parties in some ways viewed independents as “political weevils” in a multiparty political system.
However, because the Constitution protects the right of every Ugandan who would wish to participate in the politics of the country, since the 8th Parliament (2006-2011), the number of independents has risen from 29 to 43 in the 9th Parliament, an indication that the country is still nursing individual merit hangover.

In agreement with Article 38 of the 1995 Constitution which states that: “Every Ugandan citizen has the right to participate in the affairs of government, individually or through his or her representatives in accordance with the law”, therefore, any attempts to block independents would “violate the inherent rights of all the people who would wish to participate in the politics of this country, because anybody is free to contest any political office without any kind of hindrance”.

Reform or lose relevance
But Mr Wilfred Niwagaba (Ndorwa West), one of the independent candidates in the race, says the rise of the third force in the country’s politics will help political parties to reform and practice internal democracy if they are to remain relevant and attract membership.

“If they (independents) form the majority in the House, depending on the character, credentials and integrity of the members and bearing in mind that each independent member is independent of the other, should they decide to cooperate they will be a force to reckon with and will influence decisions without party leaders influence which will most likely serve better public interest,” Mr Niwagaba says.
Although there is a general feeling among the analysts and MPs that the individual merit continues to influence the political economy of Uganda and that there is an enduring hangover with a lot of focus on individuals, some political analysts like Prof Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a political historian at Makerere University, told Sunday Monitor in December last year that the rise of independents after the acrimonious NRM primaries had nothing to do with individual merit hangover.

“It is political opportunism in a political dispensation that is principally anarchical, not based on ideals but individual survival and regime survival,” he said.
Prof Ndebesa says in situations where independents in a multiparty system are more than flag bearers, you end up with political anarchy and a political system that needs creativity to define.
“Having independents supported by parties, is bastardising politics,” he says, adding that such a political situation is a recipe for disaster.

Mr Emmanuel Dombo (Bunyole West), one of the senior legislators who opted out of the parliamentary race after he lost the NRM flag, says there are many independents as a protest to the internal processes in their mother parties.
Contrary to the argument that independents would breathe new life in Parliament, Mr Dombo however, says there is no independent candidate who has any ideological differences with the mother parties.
“In Parliament, I anticipate the independents to associate with and toe the line of their mother parties in order to partake of the benefits of conformity and loyalty like Executive appointment, chairing committee and foreign trips,” Mr Dombo says.

In a view shared by most of the analysts, people Sunday Monitor interviewed held the opinion that in the corridors of Parliament, most of the “unprincipled” independents will be reduced to “dealers” since they are part of a growing no party movement that has jumbled the country’s multiparty politics.
For instance, analysts say independents are capable of making Parliament more vibrant since they will have no collective responsibility bogging them.

In other democracies, independents hold the balance of power in the sense that they have a decisive vote in any contested division between the opposition parties and the government.
The fact that the government has to negotiate with these groups to secure passage of its legislation suggests the immense power held by independents in a multiparty parliament.

Since in Uganda, independents normally have partisan leanings and exhibit high levels of partisan loyalty, Mr Mathias Mpuuga (Masaka Municipality), another independent candidate, says those who were defeated in the NRM internal polls are likely to be preoccupied with alliances that are beneficial to their survival.
“Having many independents in the House can only serve the purpose of augmenting either side of the House, depending on the issues obtaining and they will be crucial in the way business runs given that it’s highly likely that the next government will be transitory in nature with many constitutional amendments coming up,” Mr Mpuuga says.
Mr Mpuuga, however, foresees “a complex situation” since the rules do not envisage majority independent, they (rules of procedure) talk about majority party, and Opposition.

“Independents do not represent any collective party, so they can’t form Opposition as per the Constitution, and the rules,” Mr Mpuuga says, adding that, “They are sought to be independent of each other. The independents caucus is an improvisation of the House under the prerogatives of the Speaker to create harmony.”
But Mr Odoi explains that the sitting arrangement in Parliament will not be a problem because according to the current Rules of Procedure, individually every independent member has to indicate to the Speaker where they want to sit and this provision was not amended.

But in situations where independents choose to be independents “in real sense”, analysts have predicted a vibrant Parliament “with no holds barred”.
The former chairperson of the House Rules Committee insists that the increase in the numbers of independent MPs will be beneficial to Uganda.

“The independence and sanctity of the legislative arm of government will be reinforced. The future stability of Uganda lies in constantly building independent and functional institutions. Parliament needs legislators, not choir members and if independents are those legislators, so be it,” Mr Odoi says.

Independents in a multiparty system
The coordinator Citizens Coalition for Electoral Democracy, Mr Crispy Kaheru, predicts an ‘independents movement’ that forms a parliamentary voting bloc and explains that having majority independents in the race is neither good nor bad for Parliament; but insisting that appreciating their relevance in a multiparty system will heavily depend on how they conduct themselves.

“It is good in the sense that they will provide a third voice in the House (debates), but it’s also bad in that it continues the confusion about our journey towards a full multiparty dispensation,” Mr Kaheru says.
He explains that their impact will depend on whether they are truly independent or whether they strike deals with any of the political parties like we have seen in this Parliament.

“It is institutional weakness of the parties to enforce party regulations regarding flag bearers; but you can’t also ignore the complaints about lack of internal party democracy,” Mr Kaheru says.

Beyond bringing a totally new dimension to legislative debates, Mr Kaheru and Mr Siraje Nsanja, a don at Kampala University, say the new bloc in the 10th Parliament is likely to weaken the multiparty system of government and facilitate a resurgence of the ‘individual merit’ system.

However, for the ordinary voter, Mr Kaheru says, it doesn’t matter which category of people are the majority in Parliament, but rather how qualitatively they discharge their legislative mandate, prophesying that business in the 10th Parliament could become uniquely competitive and potentially qualitative and bipartisan, especially in a situation where both the ruling party and the Opposition are not assured of ‘numbers’ in the House.

Leaders react

Prof Wasswa Balunywa, MUB boss: “The traditional parties are weak and don’t have any dependable ideology that can keep their members united. Because the interests they serve cannot be spread across different people in the country. Independents, right from the presidential candidates are disgruntled. Having failed to make it in their main stream parties, they decided to it alone with the hope that they will win and go back to the mainstream party. This confuses the spirit of multiparty system.”

Justin Kasule Lumumba, NRM secretary general: “I don’t know about other parties but for us in NRM, we have internal democracy and NRM is going to have the majority in 10th Parliament. But the party rules are very clear. Any decision of the party members to contest as independents contravenes the NRM party constitution and a clear defiance against the party support base. Standing against the party flag bearer means they are plotting to deny the NRM party majority in Parliament. This is unacceptable.”

Kassiano Wadri (FDC, Terego County): “Legally, each independent member is independent of one another. So even if they are the majority in the House, they cannot form government. However, the concern should be about their large number in the race which is a sign of dissatisfaction in the manner in which primary elections were conducted in their parties. You cannot give what you don’t have. If there is no internal democracy in the political parties, then, they cannot expect it at the national level.”

Mr Siraje Nsanja, Kampala University don: “Bills and motions will take long to be passed and important legislations are likely to be killed by filibusters. Some have genuine concerns on account of the widespread rigging in the NRM polls but many independents are selfish and if voted, they will undermine the relevance and viability of political parties in our young democracy. Some are opportunistic after winning they will sign deals with NRM or any other party of their choice. Secondly, many independents will form the third force which might be manipulated easily by any president because it’s easy to deal with isolated individuals than a party.”

Usher Wilson Owere, NOTU chairman: “There is lack of institutional building by all the parties, including the ruling party. People still believe in building themselves than the party and there is lack of internal democracy. Some political parties don’t hold internal election candidates, the flag bearers are just appointed. It appears individual merit is still very strong in the minds of people. Most candidates don’t even have respect for the party, by that it weakens the parties that is not good for the institution building. We are likely to see confusion in Parliament.”

Isaac Ssejoba (NRM, Bukoto Mid-West): “Poorly managed party primaries, internal bickering in the parties, corruption, individual merit syndrome are the reasons we are having many independents in the race. The 10th Parliament is going to be more effective due to independent minds which will help the voters to benefit from their vote. There will be those who will cut deals here and there but independents will certainly invigorate the House debates and Uganda will be proud of independent minds.