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Will they be Uganda’s most influential in 2017?
Left to right: FDC leader Kizza Besigye, Kabaka Ronald Muwenda Mutebi and President Museveni. FILE PHOTOS
What you need to know:
2017 outlook. To arrive at the point of this article, we must first understand if it is power we are discussing or influence. A head of state, army commander, Inspector General of Police, Chief Justice and other such high-ranking officials will command much power. But power is not always the same thing as influence. Musicians, actors, newspaper writers, TV and radio presenters and vocal persons on social media often are among the most influential in society, writes Timothy Kalyegira.
Last week, Sunday Monitor published a news forecast of 2017, examining the possible trends and developments.
This week, we look at the persons likely to influence Ugandan society this year.
In the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s, there was no way to get a sense of what the broad swathe of the population was thinking. Opinion polls were unheard of in the 1970s and 1980s.
In the early 2000s, various newspapers would conduct surveys asking their readers to nominate the people who made the outgoing year.
Inevitably, some newspapers affiliated with the State would have President Museveni voted as the man of the year and the First Lady Janet Museveni as the woman of the year.
Others on the list would include vocal women politicians or women’s rights activists like Miria Matembe, Rebecca Kadaga or Winnie Byanyima.
Once again, it was a top-down establishment view.
Today, fortunately, we have something called social media to give us a much broader and much more detailed view of what the country thinks, likes and concerns itself with.
On the largest platform of them all, Facebook, one does not have to wait for the end of year to conduct a poll.
Throughout the year, on a daily basis, in the sharing of photos, links, posts, videos, the writing of comments and other interaction, a traffic pattern was forming that can be studied.
So who will be the likely influencers of 2017 in Uganda?
To arrive at the point of this article, we must first understand if it is power we are discussing or influence.
A head of state, army commander, Inspector General of Police, Chief Justice and other such high-ranking officials will command much power.
But power is not always the same thing as influence; in fact in developing countries, power is rarely the same as influence.
Musicians, actors, newspaper columnists and writers, TV and radio presenters, comedians, vocal persons on social media, society celebrities often are among the most influential people in society.
They do not coerce anyone to follow, like or believe in them. The public of its own accord chooses to like them and quite often admires them.
A distinction also has to be drawn between popularity and influence although admittedly popularity usually translates into influence.
President Yoweri Museveni, for various obvious reasons, will remain the most powerful person in Uganda. His decisions, appointments, promotions, directives and positions will shape much of what goes on in Uganda in 2017.
But here we are talking of power, not influence.
In 2015 and 2016, on the other hand, we saw the Opposition leader Dr Kizza Besigye start to receive small cash donations from his supporters during his campaign stopovers across Uganda.
For years before this, it was the other way around: Crowds turned up at political rallies in the hope of receiving money, T-shirts, sugar or soap from the candidates and their agents.
The political analyst Charles Rwomushana, speaking on a local radio station at the end of 2016, questions about the authenticity of the “spontaneous” crowd-funding of Besigye’s campaigns.
Rwomushana, a former intelligence officer, asked how Besigye could go about taking food, money and various objects from strangers handing them to him without bearing in mind that some of these items could be dangerous to him and deliberately intended to harm him.
That, to Rwomushana, suggested that these spontaneous donations might be staged.
We have no way of verifying Rwomushana’s claim. What is clear is that Besigye was legitimately one of the most influential people in Uganda.
The genuine belief in him among the common man cannot be denied.
During his 40-day house arrest following last year’s general election, delegations of religious leaders, university students, youth groups, Western diplomats and grassroots party activists flocked to his home. That was influence.
The Kabaka of Buganda, Ronald Muwenda Mutebi, is always going to be influential, given the structure of Buganda cultural institutions and the collective consciousness of the Baganda.
He is much-believed in and what he says is taken as truth and inspiration, from his calling on his people to plant trees, educate their children and try to start small businesses.
Certain activist and vocal MPs are also influential, particularly those who double as panellists on radio talk shows such as Betty Nambooze, Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda, Matthias Mpuuga, Muwanga Kivumbi and others.
Dr Abed Bwanika, the three-time former presidential candidate, also has influence gained from his regular appearance on local radio.
In general, the single-largest blocs of influence in Ugandan society are the media and the music industry. If we are to seek signs of who will influence the country in 2017, at least two-thirds of them will come from the media and among the musicians.
Combined, musicians and the media account for about 75 per cent of the top 100 Ugandan Facebook pages in terms of the size of followers and the actual engagement on those pages.
On Facebook, personalities like Stella Nyanzi, Tom Voltaire Okwalinga, Frank Gashumba, Charles Rwomushana, the journalist Bashir Kazibwe command large followings for their political commentary.
Also on Facebook, Faridah Nakazibwe, Flavia Tumusiime and Josephine Karungi, the three NTV news anchors (especially Nakazibwe) also are widely influential not because of the news they anchor but their personal reflections online about life or their posts about their lives.
Among younger urban Ugandans, Sheilah Gashumba like her father Frank Gashumba is quite an influence although hers is less from any vocal statements and more to do with her fashion sense and TV appearances.
The journalist Andrew Mwenda, who has a large following on Twitter, is also another of the social influencers of note.
From the data this writer has been able to track through much of 2016 and the early days of 2017, we can expect the singer Sheebah Karungi to rank among the most influential Ugandans of 2016.
It could be argued that Karungi was the female singer of 2017 in terms of public visibility and output of music.
The socialite Zari Hassan, every time she posts a photo update on her life in surroundings of glittery glamour, always attracts a large response and by raw social media numbers, is the leading Ugandan socialite on both Facebook and Instagram.
What is not clear is if this is just the general response by the public to images of the lives of socialites or Zari has started becoming an influence on the minds of her followers.
Rema Namakula, the singer, also has a large Facebook following even though her musical output in 2016 was not much.
It’s hard to tell if Rema is followed for her music, for being the spouse of the singer Eddy Kenzo or there is legitimate influence behind that.
Because of the rapidly growing Pentecostal movement in Uganda, two evangelists, Robert Kayanja and Elvis Mbonye, attracted a large following in their churches, outreach crusades and on Facebook.
Pastors like Samuel Kakande, Joseph Sserwadda, David Kiganda and others are not as visible on social media as Mbonye and Kayanja, but are very influential within their communities and among their flock.
The motivational speaker Hilda Bahati also had a significant Facebook following, increasing it when she launched her book Desperately Selfish in 2016.
We can expect their influence to increase in 2017.
Since the Uganda Cranes have finally qualified for the Africa Cup of Nations tournament, for at least a month in January 2017, the nation will have its eyes, hopes and fears fixed on the national football team.
If it does well and advances past the group stages or even gets to the quarter-finals, at least a handful of players such as the goalkeeper Dennis Onyango will become even more household names.
Whether or not that will evolve into long-term influence such as used to be enjoyed by the early 1980s Uganda Cranes captain Jimmy Kirunda, remains to be seen.
The most influential and best-known sports figure of the last decade, widely known even outside sporting circles, was the kick boxer Golola Moses, mainly for his hyperbole and memorable quotes.
It’s unlikely that any member of the Uganda Cranes will become a household name like Golola Moses.
Even if the Cranes do well in Gabon, most of the team will enjoy more the low-key glory of the 2012 Olympic champion Stephen Kiprotich than the loud visibility of Golola.
A personality such as Abbey Mukiibi, co-presenter of the CBS FM “Kalisoliso” morning sports show is likely to remain more influential than the actual sportsmen who score the goals or win the titles.
In the upcountry towns, because of the limited economy, social life and other factors, there are not many people of influence enough to rank on a national list.
The collective tends to be the influencer. Local radio stations in most of these towns are the most influential force, with one or two presenters also standing out in their own right.
In those towns, the area Anglican or Catholic bishop or leading Pentecostal pastor will be the most influential and, often, the area MPs.
Big on social media
On Facebook, personalities like Stella Nyanzi, Tom Voltaire Okwalinga, Frank Gashumba, Charles Rwomushana, the journalist Bashir Kazibwe command large followings for their political commentary.
Also on Facebook, Faridah Nakazibwe, Flavia Tumusiime and Josephine Karungi, the three NTV news anchors (especially Nakazibwe) also are widely influential not because of the news they anchor but their personal reflections online about life or their posts about their lives.
Among younger urban Ugandans, Sheilah Gashumba like her father Frank Gashumba is quite an influence although hers is less from any vocal statements and more to do with her fashion sense and TV appearances.
The journalist Andrew Mwenda, who has a large following on Twitter, is also another of the social influencers of note.
