Voters fault MPs on age limit removal

The army invaded Parliament and got involved in a confrontation with dissenting MPs who were trying to filibuster the debate on the removal of the provision, leaving two of them requiring treatment abroad.

The process was challenged in the Constitutional Court through separate petitions by a group of MPs, the Uganda Law Society and an individual, Mr Male Mabirizi, which petitions were consolidated during the hearing.

The Constitutional Court maintained the amendment by a majority decision of 4-1, and the Supreme Court, on appeal, also maintained it, albeit with a much closer majority decision of 4-3.
The courts ruled that consultations of voters was sufficient, even when some voters attacked pro-age limit MPs or forced others to flee from chaotic meetings.

Afterwards, many of the pro-age limit lawmakers sought special protection from the State, claiming their lives were in danger. President Museveni proposed a lead car with army snipers, but the arrangement was shelved over costs and logistical overheads.

Before the ‘age limit’, as it came to be known, was removed from the Constitution, a poll commissioned by civil society organisations by Citizens Coalition on Electoral Democracy (CEEDU) and Uganda Governance Monitoring Platform (UGMP) showed that 85 per cent of Ugandans opposed the move.
The study titled; “Citizens’ Perceptions on the Proposed Amendment of Article 102(b) of the Constitution”, sampled 50,429 citizens in 80 constituencies across the country. It covered 22,926 females and 27,503 male respondents.

In the new poll for which interviews, RWI says, were done between April 12 and April 25, over a year after Parliament voted to remove the age limit by 317 voting in favour and 97 against, 65 per cent of the respondents said they did not agree with the decision.
Twenty-eight per cent said it was a good decision. Four per cent said they did not know whether it was a good or bad decision, while three per cent said they had no comment on the issue.

To generate these responses, the following question was put to the respondents: “Some people think that presidential age limit was important and, therefore, removing it was bad, while other people supported the idea of removing the presidential age limit so that anybody can contest as much as he wishes. What are your views?”
The question was put to all 2,042 respondents who participated in the poll who, according to RWI researchers, were selected scientifically from across the country, taking into account demographic proportions according to age and region provided by official statistics.

Daily Monitor neither commissioned nor funded the poll and was not able to independently verify the statistics because a confidentiality clause prevents RWI from sharing contacts of the quoted Respondents.

Regional distribution
The opposition to the removal of the age limit, the poll results show, cuts across all regions. Central region (74 per cent) is most opposed to the move, followed by Kampala with 70 per cent. In the central region, 586 people were interviewed, while in Kampala the poll reached 155.

Twenty per cent of the respondents in central region supported the removal of the age limit, while the corresponding figure for Kampala is 24 per cent.
Sixty seven per cent of the 452 respondents in the eastern region opposed the move, while 25 per cent of them supported the amendment.

The numbers that opposed and supported the move in northern and western regions almost tied, with 57 per cent of the 387 respondents in the northern region opposed to scrapping of the age limit just like 56 per cent of the 462 respondents in western region did. The two regions also have the highest approval ratings for the removal of age limits, with 38 and 5 per cent in northern and western, respectively.

The respondents’ feelings about the removal of age limits are somehow mirrored in their approval ratings for President Museveni, who is seen as the main beneficiary from the move.
The poll shows that Mr Museveni’s ratings are lowest in central region and Kampala, standing at 19 per cent and 22 per cent, respectively.
These are the regions that are also most opposed to the removal of age limits.

On the other hand, Mr Museveni’s approval ratings were highest in the regions with the highest approval ratings for the removal of age limits – northern (39 per cent) and western (47 per cent).
His approval rating in the eastern stands at 32 per cent. The President’s approval ratings, the poll shows, have dipped to their lowest of any opinion poll ever done during his presidency (32 per cent).

The opposition to the age limit removal is spread across rural and urban areas, standing at 65 per cent and 67 per cent, respectively.
Those who back the move in rural areas are 28 per cent, with the corresponding figure in urban areas being 25 per cent. Women (62 per cent) and men (67 per cent) almost equally oppose the move.

Popular within NRM
The only group of respondents that had a majority saying the move was good is that which identified as NRM supporters.
Of the 731 respondents who identified themselves as such, 52 per cent said removing age limit was a good decision while 43 per cent thought to the contrary. Three per cent said they did not know, while two per cent declined to comment.
Among the category of respondents that identified themselves as “Independent”, who were 780, the removal of age limits was unpopular, with 74 per cent of them opposing it while 17 per cent said it was a good decision.

Six per cent of these respondents said they did not know whether it was good or bad, while three per cent declined to comment.
For those respondents who said they subscribe to opposition political parties, 88 per cent said removing age limit was bad, with 10 per cent saying it was good. One per cent a piece either said they didn’t know whether it was good or bad or declined to comment.

Opposition age-blind
The opposition to the removal of the age limit is age blind, with all age groups having a majority, saying it was a bad decision.
The respondents aged 30-39 were most opposed (69 per cent) to the decision, followed by those aged 18-29 (66 per cent).
Uganda being a young population, the two age groups accounted for the biggest number of respondents, contributing a combined total of 1,252 out of 2,042 respondents, or 61 per cent of the respondents.
The respondents in age group 40-49, who were 388 in number, had 62 per cent of them saying removing age limit was a bad decision, with 31 per cent of them saying it was good.

Four per cent of them said they did not know whether it was good or bad, while two per cent declined to comment on the question.
Fifty-nine per cent of respondents aged 50-59 and 55 per cent of those aged 60 and above said it was a bad decision, while those in these age groups who thought it was a good decision tied at 34 per cent.

Reactions

Mr Richard Todwong, deputy secretary general NRM: “This report is shallow, not well researched and very unprofessional. As NRM, we do not accept it because it is illegitimate. We refuse in the strongest terms.”

Mr Jimmy Akena, UPC president: “I have not had time to sit and internalise the details of this report so I would be the wrong person to comment about it. Even if they have found that, I would get only two per cent, which is not enough for me to go commenting on their findings, they have reasons why they gave me that.”

Mr Asuman Basalirwa, Jeema president: “I don’t think this report is representing the minds of the people. They have said Jeema can only manage 0.10 per cent; this cannot be true because we have far a lot of support in this country than what they have quoted in their report. We dismiss it because we find it a joke.”

Mr Norbert Mao, DP president: “I am happy with the findings in the report because they point to some of the things the DP bloc has been fronting, coming together as opposition parties. Opinion polls keep changing; in fact, they will be surprised to find out totally different figures. As people working to oust [President] Museveni, we should use this time to take advantage of the loopholes established in the research so that we can become better.”
Compiled by Derrick Wandera

Methodology
• 2,042 respondents aged 18 and above were interviewed across 60 of 127 districts in Uganda
•The country was stratified into 4 broad regions – Central, Eastern, Northern, and Western
•Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) data was used to identify the proportions of the samples / population within each region and according to age
• Counties, sub-counties and parishes were randomly selected from each district. 204 Sub-counties were sampled
•Within each parish, a village was randomly selected and 10 interviews conducted. 204 Parishes were sampled
• Margin of error: +/-5% with 95 per cent level of confidence
•Research World International says that they took GPS (global positioning system) coordinates of all interviewers to ensure that they indeed went wherever they said they
went
• Gender split – Female: 51%; Male:49%

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