We might be in for the long haul

It is a moving target, hard to isolate and too elusive to be pinned down. It has been more than six months since it first showed up in China, but even the best of the minds in epidemiology and infectious diseases are yet to have a firm grasp of the virus. We keep getting new and utterly shocking trends.

The latest major finding is that the virus is more than just a respiratory infection that attacks the respiratory system. It has now emerged that the virus can easily affect other sensitive internal body organs and trigger potential multiple organ failure. This is deeply scary.

Caveat: I have zero knowledge of medical science, so, dear reader, do not take anything I say here as expert knowledge. Like much of my writing, it is at best informed opinion, based on partial and tentative information. At any rate, I like to clarify that I do not consider myself an expert on anything, not even in my ostensible field and profession.
But there are a few things about Covid-19 that a non-specialist and a street commentator like your columnist cannot help but mull over. For one, the virus is quite hideous. Compared to other devastating health conditions, this one has a low death rate but is highly contagious.

And unlike HIV/Aids, whose primary mode of spread is fairly well-known and can be avoided, we just do not yet know the different ways one can catch Covid-19, or the assured way of avoiding it short of staying in isolation. What we have are a litany of suggestions and guidelines for mitigation but which are not a sure guarantee.

This virus is fully exposing the limits of human ingenuity. We live in an era of advanced medical science and technological sophistication, so we would ordinarily have a quick fix. Not quite.

Take the United States, considered the world’s most powerful nation, with vast intellectual, financial and technological resources. It also happens to be the country hit hardest by the pandemic. It has the world’s topmost research universities and unmatched concentration of research resources, both human and financial.

New York City, arguably the world’s most powerful financial capital, has been the number one epicentre.
Now, one can argue that America is a country of contradictions and ironies. It houses the richest along with the wretched, the powerful and the powerless, prosperity and poverty.

To be sure, this virus is not in any way uniquely affecting the US. At one point, Italy made the most headlines before matters rapidly switched to the US. We just do not know who might be hit hard the next.

Suggestions that the African continent, always treated generically and addressed in singular terms as though there is one Africa country, will be the next frontier, seem not be forthcoming.

Now there are calls to return to ‘normal’ life, embrace the menacing thing and learn to live with it or work to keep it at bay. This is understandable given that human beings simply cannot exist without being productive and mobile. We cannot live in perpetual lockdown.

But it is a big catch-22. Returning to normal economic activity might mean opening up to the virus’s jaws. Staying with the current worldwide economic inactivity or limited productivity means placing livelihoods in prolonged jeopardy. Either way, things do not look good.

We are talking here about a pandemic that remains mysterious, its full health implications unknown yet there is no way of stopping it via a vaccine or treatment. It is unlikely that a vaccine will be available anytime this year.

That is not the worst news though. Experts now say even if we had one, there is no guarantee it will be effective. The overall situation remains uncertain. As I have argued here before, no one knows for sure what lies ahead.

Khisa is assistant professor at North Carolina State University (USA).
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