Prime
Forget about East African federation for now
Prof George W. Kanyeihamba
What you need to know:
Tension. Recent reports show that Uganda and Rwanda, which have in the past behaved as one state, are now bitterly divided and their conflicts have adversely affected the rest of East Africa.
One of the reasons President Museveni advances for staying in power beyond what he despised and condemned before as a betrayal of the people of Africa is to steer the East African Community into a political federation.
At one time, East Africa appeared homogeneous with a common philosophy, beliefs and aspirations. Kenya and Tanzania delayed their own independence to enable Uganda get its own, more or less at the same time.
When Idi Amin brutally governed Uganda, the Tanzanians and Kenyans hosted thousands of Ugandans as brothers and sisters and assisted them in the overthrow of the Amin regime.
The three countries, not to mention the latest new additional members of the East African Community, share a lot in common, including ethnicity, marriages and culture.
If these were the only issues to take into account, the East African region would be one unitary state with one government. Unfortunately, that is not how modern politics unites or devises countries. If it were, Somalia, Arab countries and England would each be one bonded nation. The only catalyst which divides one people and nations is politics.
Recent reports show that Uganda and Rwanda, which have in the past behaved as one state, are now bitterly divided and their conflicts have adversely affected the rest of East Africa.
At first, Rwanda blocked vital imports necessary for its sustenance and survival, with Uganda accusing Rwanda of blocking East Africa’s goods and damaging the region’s economy.
Not for the first time, Rwanda counter accused Uganda of assisting subversive and dissent Rwandans to destabilise and attack Rwandan territory and integrity. It is, therefore, obvious that currently, there is no love lost between these two ethnically related countries.
For decades now, Tanzania has proudly held herself out as the only people’s popular socialist state in the region. Kenya is beloved and praised as a capitalist state and a friend of the Western capitalist world which now embraces the Rwanda government as a fellow traveller which eventually willingly joined the British Commonwealth in preference to its founding ruler and imposed culture France and French.
As if all this was not enough, the historical East African region readily welcomed Rwanda and Burundi together with the newly independent but troubled state of South Sudan, oblivious to the reality that many of South Sudanese hate one another and would prefer Sudan from which they initially thought they were running away to found their own independent sovereign state.
Consequently, to use one of the many misunderstood clinches of Idi Amin, “The situation is under panic, therefore, there is no need to control” which equally applies to the federation of East Africa.
President Museveni has been so busy that he does not pause to reflect and internalise what East Africans, including his own compatriots, say about his prospects of ever participating in the unification of the region, let alone ever having opportunity to lead it as one country.
Very few East Africans bet on his chances of ever doing so despite public utterances to the contrary. East Africans believe that if ever an East Africa federation evolved their own leaders would be the one to lead it because they are the oldest and preferred country by most of the world.
The Tanzanians believe that as the most stable and socialist country their leaders would be preferred by the people of East Africa. The majority in Africa believe that there will never be one state called East Africa.
Unfortunately, even if the NRM refuses to accept this fact, today President Museveni would be rejected as president of East Africa because of his long rule over Uganda.
Voters would see it as an extension of his 30 or more years with which he has dominated the politics of Uganda. The only certainty about East Africa is chaotic confusion and uncertainty.
Prof Kanyeihamba is a retired Supreme Court judge.
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