Why African Standby Force might not be deployed anytime soon

“…despite the fact that Africa has the capacity to solve many of its problems, the attack on Libya was against the advice of African leaders. It was a big shame that Africa can be attacked by its former colonial masters.

We passed a resolution that they should leave Libya alone. There was a committee that was constituted to look into the Libyan situation. However, the African leaders were denied permission to get into Libya. When African leaders were on the plane, they were told to go back,” President Museveni was quoted to have said.

In 2013, the African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crisis (ACIRC) was setup on a temporary basis with the view that in the near future a more capable military structure under ASF would be operational. But one of the challenges identified as standing in the way of setting up of the Force was a procedural matter in harmonising transition between the temporary and permanent arrangement.

Due to differences in views, the 33rd AU Summit came to a close without a date being set for a “next steps” discussions. The difference in views and slow response could be blamed on lack of finances and the prevailing poverty in many African states.

In January 2014, the Peace and Security Council of the African Union recognised that unless the issue of significant funding was resolved in 2015, the operationalisation of ASF would be impossible since logistical and technical capacity would be non-existent.
The lack of trust and a cohesively solid working relationship between AU member states may also be further hindering progress.

According to UN secretary general Antonio Guterres, “African Union will have to first overcome internal disputes and insufficient financing for peacekeeping if it wants to become a major player in conflict resolution.”

Unfortunately, the issue of financing also seems to be closely related to poverty. According to a 2019 World Bank report titled ‘Accelerating Poverty Reduction in Africa,’ although Africans living in extreme poverty fell from 54 per cent in 1990 to 41 per cent in 2015, in the same period, due to high population growth, the number of poor people in Africa increased significantly from 278 million to 413 million.

If circumstances remain the same, the poverty rate is expected to decline to 23 per cent only, by 2030 and global poverty will become increasingly African, rising from 55 per cent in 2015 to 90 per cent in 2030. Fragile and conflict-affected states, according to the report, have notably higher poverty rates, and lack of education, health, and skills as well as persistent inequality between men and women make poverty reduction harder.

AU Commission chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat seems to have considered the issue of poverty in African states in relation to security issues, saying terrorism, intercommunal conflict and pre- and post- elections crisis would take more than military action by ASF to solve African problems “since military doesn’t address root causes of African conflicts, namely poverty and social exclusion.”

Although the idea of African solutions to African problems through ASF seems right and fitting, unfortunately, it might not become a reality anytime soon as leaders struggle with different equally pressing priorities.

Ms Victoria Nyeko is a media commentator.
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Twitter:@VictoriaNyeko