Will Gen Muntu’s Alliance party be a factor in the 2021 elections?

I have argued elsewhere that a two-party system offers the best opportunity for the Opposition to beat the incumbent. This two-party system does not have to be de jure (legal and constitutional), but de facto (conditioned).
It could just be a situation where two political parties (or two grand coalitions on both sides of the divide) effectively control more than 80 per cent of parliamentary seats or votes.

Cases of de facto two-party system where Opposition coalition won elections are Niger in March 1993; Burundi in June 1993; Senegal in March 2000 and Kenya in December 2002. In an almost de jure two-party system, Opposition candidates have won twice in both Cape Verde (1991 and 2001) and Ghana (2000 and 2008) and once in Sierra Leone (2007).
Although this may not guarantee an automatic electoral victory for the Opposition, it is a necessary weapon given the political dynamics obtaining in Uganda.
What does this mean? It means the actors and factors should create or render the existence of a situation where all pro-change forces coalesce into some kind of understanding or coalition.

Given the naming of political parties, it is clear there exists a recognition for the need to rally, co-operate and unite all pro-change political forces. Words like ‘forum’ and ‘alliance’ are prescriptive descriptions of platforms for rallying diverse political attitudes.
Unfortunately, instead of consolidating the forum (as in FDC), we are now hosted and treated to another platform called an alliance (as in ANT). What does this mean? That pro-change actors are still far from creating an ideal de facto two-party system (or grand coalitions) or at least a situation that would condition political actors to foleni (fall in).
The failure by the pro-change forces to enact a grand coalition means that most of their efforts are likely to be focused on winning parliamentary seats in 2021. This leaves Dr Kizza Besigye as the only political leader (on both sides of the divide) passionate (or obsessed?) with the idea of regime change (or Museveni-Must-Go).

Make no mistake…; with a man like Dr Besigye covering the presidential front, FDC politicians would be more concerned with winning parliamentary seats than seeking the removal of Mr Museveni.
To what extent then will Gen Muntu and his ANT be a factor in the 2021 elections? The highest achievable objective for ANT is winning parliamentary seats. They are also likely to scoop a seat or two in the East African Legislative Assembly. So, if one wants to assess ANT’s impact in the 2021 elections, the only quantifiable parameter would be the number of parliamentary seats held by ANT members.
As a long game player, Muntu’s biggest asset is time. With some MPs and Eala members, ANT’s big game will be in 2026.

Mr Bisiika is the executive editor of
East African Flagpost.
[email protected]

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Moses Khisa > majority report

I did not think it was the right move to quit Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), let alone form a new political party. But maybe it was. The situation had become untenable and the breakup was unavoidable. It is one thing to form a political party, arguably the easier bit, quite another to forge a formidable force that shakes up the political landscape. There is enormous yearning for change and a dire need to urgently end a decrepit, corrupt patronage-driven regime.
We are a socially fragile country in desperate need of healing, genuine reconciliation, inclusive economic policies and sensitivity to our diversity as a nation. Public spiritedness has been subordinated to shameless, selfish personal profiteering while the public sector is atrociously inefficient, largely bereft of meritocracy. There is a deep feeling of social injustice and ethno-regional imbalance in access to opportunities. In all, the problems are endemic and the task is herculean. In comes the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), the newest political party. Mugisha Muntu is its leader.

Muntu is no stranger to our chequered political history. He participated in the war that brought the current rulers to power in 1986, served as Army Commander (1989-1998) and led the main Opposition party, FDC (2012-2017). He led the army during the fiercest armed challenge against the Museveni regime: Rebel groups in east, northeast, north, northwest and west. He led FDC during its most turbulent time, a case-study in mismanaged leadership transition. What is likely to be ANT’s fate? Time will tell. There is a political vacuum, partly the reason the musician cum politician Robert Kyagulanyi instantly became a rallying point.

The FDC might remain the main Opposition party, but perhaps not for too long; it is contingent on a tomorrow we don’t know.
Jimmy Akena has practically sold off to the supreme ruler what was left of UPC. Norbert Mao is a brilliant fellow, but DP appears to be in a comfortable trance. NRM as an autonomous political organisation does not exist. It parasitically feeds off the State and fully dependent on its sole owner, the perennial sole candidate. It is unlikely to survive without him. Muntu has the chance to walk the talk. The same conditions that birthed FDC are more pronounced today – clamour for a serious vehicle for change. But to make a difference and gain traction, ANT will have to do things differently, take a tack that fundamentally departs from his tenure as FDC president.

First, political success needs careful planning and detailed strategy. But politics is seldom exclusively a matter of boardroom hard-thinking and brilliant ideas. It is largely a matter of public perception and action. Public presence matters. Public performance counts. This is not about being confrontational versus diplomatic, rather systematic activity and sustained public engagement that creates momentum. If Muntu cannot embrace this basic tenet of political activity, especially during elections, ANT will be inconsequential.

Second, a successful national party must have substantial nationwide presence. The talk about party structures tends to be rather abstract. The point is that a political organisation must marshal a network of countrywide apparatchiks, cadres, offices and systems of coordinated activities. The NRM does this by relying on the State. It is an overly expensive business in a tough terrain. But it is the sine qua non to identifying candidates for electoral positions particularly at the local levels.
Most important, it is the basis for building the infrastructure for managing elections, especially ensuring polling day presence to mitigate possible rigging. This has been FDC’s biggest undoing, occasioned by an inhospitable environment of State repression, but also internal organisational inefficiencies. Muntu and the ANT can learn from FDC’s weaknesses. Better resource mobilisation (forget big-money external donors, solicit small monies from Ugandans), methodical recruitment from especially among professionals, above all building a robust bureaucratic apparatus.

Last, ANT can only fly if it is marketed aggressively. And the chief marketing officer is its head. A political party is not an invisible corporation – it must be publicly embraced and widely recognised. What sections of society and regions of the country will constitute the core social bases for ANT? Key question for the promoters to wrestle with.
Dr Khisa is assistant professor at North Carolina State University (USA).
[email protected]