Raila Odinga makes his remarks during the launch of his bid for the African Union Commission Chairmanship at State House, Nairobi on August 27, 2024.
The divide between Anglophones and Francophones at the African Union could play a key role at next year’s elections of chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC), experts warn.
Kenya unveiled former prime minister Raila Odinga as the country's candidate for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) yesterday at State House, Nairobi, and in doing so, exposed the country to the dynamics between these two groups of states.
Tuesday's launch marked the start of Mr Odinga’s official campaigns ahead of the February 2025 elections to replace outgoing chair Mr Moussa Faki Mahamat.
EAC chairman and South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit, Tanzanian’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni graced the event, signalling strong support for Mr Odinga in the EAC.
Rwanda’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs James Kabarebe and Burundian Prime Minister Gervais Ndirakobuca were also present.
But as Kenya officially launched Odinga’s official campaign, experts warned that Raila’s candidate could be caught in the web that is the AU politics, which is based on the continent's approach to the East or West and to their former colonial states, with Francophones often accused of being too close to France.
Out of the 54 African countries, Anglophone (24) and francophone (28) countries make up two-thirds of the member states of the AU. The other official languages of the AU are Portuguese and Arabic.
It is never admitted publicly, but the divide between Anglophones and Francophones still at times besets the corridors of the AU in Addis Ababa.
According to Dr Kizito Sabala, a lecturer at the University of Nairobi’s Department of Diplomacy and International Studies (DDIS), the Anglophone and the Francophone divide in Africa is definitely going to influence Raila’s candidature.
“This is because since independence, the AU, the first division has always been between the Anglophone and the Francophone. And therefore if the Anglophone are going to rally behind Raila and the Francophone rally behind a French speaking candidate, then that is going to divide the vote on the continent,” said Dr Sabala, who holds a PhD in Diplomacy and International Studies.
“The advantage that Raila may have is that there seems not to be a strong Francophone candidate as we speak now. All along the French divide at the AU has always been a factor, irrespective of the candidate.”
The elections, which are not until February 2025, pits Kenya’s former prime minister against the Djibouti foreign affairs minister Mahamoud Ali Youssou, from Djibouti, on the Horn of Africa, which is a mostly French- and Arabic-speaking country.
Other contestants include former Mauritius Foreign Minister Anil Kumarsingh Gayan and Richard James Randriamandrato, a former Madagascar foreign minister.
However the fact that it is the time for an East African, other factors other than the Anglophone-Francophone divide could also play a major role.
Former AUC deputy chairperson and Kenyan Erastus Mwencha said experience, knowledge of what the job entails and the prevailing political climate of the continent at the time play a major role in determining who sits in Addis Ababa.
“If the Anglophone-Francophone divide was a factor I would never have been elected,” said Mr Mwencha, formerly the Deputy Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC), 2009-12 and 2012-17.
“During my second term I got over 90 percent of the vote. That tells you that the divide did not play out. Instead, it was about the agenda and don’t forget that I was already working in the region. The experience helped me because you come with the knowledge and not coming to learn on the job about integration.”
Before joining the AUC, Mr Mwencha was the secretary-general of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa) from May 1998 to April 2008 where he previously served in various capacities including acting secretary-general, Director of Industry, Energy and Environment and Senior Industrial Expert.
“Out of the 54 heads of state, you can’t tell what will convince each of them to vote. But some may look at the country, some at the candidature, region, the language he speaks, but in totality if you weigh the candidates Raila has an upper hand because the candidate who is there is in many ways is from the Anglophone,” said Mr Mwencha.
“There is also the gentleman's agreement that you can’t have candidates from both the Anglophone and the Francophone.”
