Climate shocks bring punishing drought to southern Africa's doorstep
Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema and Malawian President Lazarus Chakwera.
Southern Africa was once a reliable source of food for the continent.
Now, it is almost a basket case, with at least three countries on the brink of devastating famine following a severe drought in the just-ended planting season.
The drought in the continent's traditional breadbasket has been blamed on the El Niño climate phenomenon, described by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) as the worst on record.
Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe have now declared national disasters as a result of the El Nino-induced drought, which has devastated their food production and wiped out most of their staple crops.
This is worrying because some countries, such as Kenya, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo, have relied on Zambia's sugar and maize plantations to stave off their own food shortages.
Kenya and its neighbours in the northeast of the continent are now facing severe flooding, also linked to El Niño climate patterns.
According to scientists, El Niño is associated with a warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and occurs in the context of a climate that is being altered by human activity.
It is associated with increased rainfall, often causing flooding in the Horn of Africa and the southern United States of America, and unusually dry and warm conditions in southeast Asia, Australia and southern Africa.
According to the WMO, the current El Niño event, which developed in June 2023 and resulted in low rainfall and extremely high temperatures in southern Africa, was strongest between November and January.
This period also coincides with the peak agricultural season in the region, leading to widespread crop failures.
Forecasts from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET), a US-funded platform, for February to September 2024 indicate significantly below-average harvests across the region, "which is expected to negatively impact food access, harvest labour and crop sales during the post-harvest period."
El Nino-induced rainfall
"Below-average El Nino-induced rainfall also limited pasture regeneration and affected water availability for livestock in some parts of the region," FEWSNET said.
“February was characterised by record dryness and high temperatures, resulting in severe moisture stress, reduced harvest potential, and crop failure for food and some cash crops, particularly in Zimbabwe, southern and central Mozambique and southern Malawi.
“Typically, drier parts of the region were the most affected, with water and pasture availability likely to decline earlier than normal during the upcoming dry season in the winter months.”
Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa has said his country needs $2 billion to fight hunger after poor rains wiped out about half the maize crop in the just-ended season.
An estimated 2.7 million Zimbabweans are already in desperate need of food aid, and grain prices are expected to soar in a country constantly battling hyperinflation.
An assessment by the Africa South Business Group consultancy found that Zimbabwe was not well prepared for the El Nino-induced drought, despite early warnings issued well before the start of the 2023/24 rainy season.
“Although the country expected this drought, its severity was not anticipated and even with the efforts of the Ministry of Agriculture to promote irrigated plantings and to climate-proof agriculture in the smallholder sector, the effects of this drought are going to be severe,” reads the firm’s advisory note prepared for the government in March 2024, which was seen by The East African this week.
“It is considered that the great majority of dryland plantings are already too far gone to recover.”
The firm estimates that Zimbabwe will need to import 1.3 million tonnes of the staple food maize this year, with most of it coming from neighbouring South Africa to make up the shortfall.
Aid agencies say 4.4 million Malawians are already reeling from the effects of the El Nino-induced drought after the maize crop was hit by below-normal rainfall and high temperatures.
Malawi's President Lazarus Chakwera said the country urgently needed more than $200 million to avert famine caused by the drought.
Zambia was the first to declare the crippling drought a national disaster and emergency, with President Hakainde Hichilema saying it had wiped out about one million hectares of the 2.2 million hectares planted with the staple maize crop.
Look as far as South America
FEWSNET said the region will struggle to import grain from within Africa and may have to look as far as South America for supplies this year.
“The southern Africa region is expected to have a supply gap for staple cereals following the expected below-average harvest,” reads the forecast.
“The combined maize exports from South Africa and Tanzania are unlikely to meet the regional demand, and some countries will likely have to source grain from East Africa (Uganda) and South America to fill supply gaps due to below-average regional grain supply. There are increasing reports that some households with stocks are limiting grain deliveries to markets ahead of the poor harvest to maximise stocks for the upcoming consumption year.”
Matthew Pickard, CARE Southern Africa regional director, described the impact of the El Nino-induced drought across the region as dire with Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe being the largest source of concern for aid agencies.
“The situation is dire and demands urgent and coordinated action to avert a catastrophe,” Mr Pickard told a recent briefing on the unfolding crisis.
“We are particularly concerned by the impact of this emergency on women and girls, who form the backbone of local communities that have had their farms scorched by the intense sun.”
He went on: “At the same time, the cholera outbreak affected Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe leading to hundreds of deaths whilst recovering from four years of intense cyclones. We need to support affected communities already impacted by the drought to avert disaster.”
The three countries, along with Mozambique have been battling cholera outbreaks that began in 2023 and have affected thousands of people.
More than just a climate shock
Chikwe Mbweeda, CARE Zambia country director, said this year’s drought was more than just a climate shock.
“This is not just a climate shock,” Ms Mbweeda told the same briefing. “It is a humanitarian crisis that is demanding immediate action. This crisis has disproportionately affected women and girls. We know that in such situations they will eat the least and the last because this is what happens in the household.”
Tshilidzi Madzivhandila, CEO of the Human Science Research Council, said one of the biggest impacts of climate change was that Africa has become a net importer of food.
“What we all know is that the agriculture sector is under immense threat from the impact of climate change,” Dr Madzivhandila said.
“This has one fundamental challenge; the continent is now a net importer of food. What is the cost of that? At the current rate at which we are importing food, we spend $35 billion. That is the cost of importing food and that is projected to increase to over $100 billion by 2025.”
The poor state of the economy in both Zimbabwe and Malawi is expected to worsen the impact of the drought.
“Food inflation is expected to accelerate resulting in lower than normal household purchasing power,” the FEWSNET report added.
“Poor macroeconomic conditions associated with acceleration in monthly inflation and depreciating exchange rates such as in Malawi and Zimbabwe, may exacerbate the protracted food shortages and limit access to other basic non-food items.”
Zimbabwe introduced a new currency this month after its old unit was ravaged by hyperinflation, while Malawi has been suffering foreign currency shortages and local currency volatility for some time.
