Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
Egypt is rallying Somalia and Eritrea to a new loose security alliance that could further exacerbate tensions in the Horn of Africa.
On Thursday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi landed in Asmara, Eritrea where Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud had travelled to on Wednesday. The Egyptian leader is expected to hold trilateral talks that will also include the host leader Isaias Afwerki.
A dispatch from the Egyptian Presidency said the trip would focus on “bilateral ties and stability of the Horn of Africa and Red Sea”. It added that they would hold a tripartite summit.
Earlier on Wednesday, Mohamud and Afwerki held bilateral talks that focused on regional and international issues of “common interest”. Some of the details suggested an intensified bid to protect each other’s territories, a subtle jab at Ethiopia.
“The two leaders underscored the imperative of further bolstering the bilateral cooperation of the two sisterly countries in the heavy tasks of the maintenance of the sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence, and unity of Somalia,” the Eritrean Ministry of Information said.
“In this context, the two leaders noted that building a strong and developed nation is invariably predicated on robust and sovereign institutions, including a viable defence and security architecture.”
Eritrea has been training some of the Somali National Army troops for the past three years. But it is the entry of the Egyptians that has stirred the waters in the Horn of Africa. Egypt earlier signed a defence cooperation agreement with Somalia, offered to train and equip Somali troops and pledged to send troops as part of a new African Union mission meant to replace the African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (Atmis) whose mandate ends this December.
But Somalia did so while trying to exclude Ethiopia from the next security arrangements, accusing Addis Ababa of trying to carve up Somali territory. The spark was lit in January, when Ethiopia signed a controversial memorandum of understanding with the region of Somaliland, offering access to the sea for a naval base in exchange for Ethiopia's recognition of Somaliland as independent from Somalia.
Mogadishu has protested against Ethiopia at every international forum, accusing Addis Ababa of illegally sending arms into Somali territory. Ethiopian troops are part of Atmis and also serve in Somalia under a separate bilateral agreement. Somalia has said it will end the arrangement.
But Ethiopia has protested that Cairo is sending arms to a country with poor inventory management for arms, warning that the weapons could end up in the hands of al-Shabaab militants.
In Asmara, a tripartite alliance between Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea could mean different things to the three. For Somalia, it could provide a greater sense of security support against Ethiopia, now declared a public enemy. For Egypt, it could provide security assurances in the Red Sea and isolation of Ethiopia, which is seen in Cairo as an enemy because of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile, which Ethiopia built and unilaterally filled despite Egyptian protests. For Asmara, the deal could be a way of getting back at Ethiopia, with whom it fought the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) but fell out after a ceasefire was signed in November 2022. Eritrea has since suspended direct flights between Asmara and Addis Ababa.
Turkey had tried to mediate between Somalia and Ethiopia over the Somaliland MoU. The alliance may also reduce the possibility of those talks continuing.
Ahead of the Egyptian trip to Asmara, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met with African ambassadors accredited to Egypt on Wednesday to explain Egypt's moves in the Horn.
“He outlined Egypt's position on African and regional issues and their impact on the security and stability of the African continent,” a dispatch said.
Egypt relies on Red Sea traffic to use the Suez Canal, one of its main sources of revenue over the years. The sea has already become unsafe, with the Houthis attacking some ships there. But Egypt may be even more alarmed by Ethiopian plans to build a naval force off the coast of Somaliland.
In the past, Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea had tried to form a Horn of Africa alliance. But the new format now means that Addis Ababa is out of the picture.
