Sudan junta runs out of options as tiff with IGAD drags peace bid
Sudanese soldiers and enrolled personnel drive a pickup truck mounted with a machine gun on a street in Gedaref City, Sudan, on January 14, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict in Sudan between the army and paramilitaries.
Sudan’s military junta may have shut own door on ending conflict in Sudan, after launching a feud with regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), diplomats warned this week.
A statement issued by the Sudanese Foreign Ministry accused the African organisation of "violating the sovereignty" of Sudan, after it invited Rapid Support Forces commander Hamdan Dagalo to attend its summit in Uganda.
But diplomatic sources have told the Nation the decision by Khartoum may have been out of internal wrangles and will shut the door on the junta’s capability to maintain legitimacy abroad.
The junta led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan boycotted the meeting then complained that IGAD leaders invited RSF leader Mohamed Daglo Hemedti to the meeting in spite of him not being a head of state or government. The IGAD Summit in Kampala on January 18, in fact, invited representatives of civilian movements as well led by former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.
The official communique from IGAD did not list Sudan actors present but it did reiterate the “call for the parties to the conflict (in Sudan) to commit to dialogue and negotiation; and in this regard, expressed IGAD’s continued readiness to offer its good offices to facilitate an all-inclusive peace process to end the conflict in close collaboration with all Sudanese stakeholders, AU, and regional and international actors.”
It added that “the Republic of the Sudan does not belong to the parties to the conflict only but the Sudanese people” and demanded an immediate and unconditional ceasefire.
This week, sources indicated mediators will still push ahead with the peace bid, by side-chatting other parties to the conflict for a possible coalition, something that could risk isolating the junta in Sudan.
Sudan, already suspended by the African Union since October 27, 2021, for a coup, had remained active in IGAD, first as the rotating Chair until May this year when Djibouti took over, and later by sending representatives to each of the meetings that sought a solution to its war.
This week, one diplomat who has worked on previous peace bids said IGAD has often invited all parties to the conflict to the table, regardless of status.
“IGAD is following a precedent it established years ago. If you look at Sudan’s history, you learn that Omar al-Bashir (then President) and John Garang were often invited. Like Burhan, Bashir initially also refused to sit at a table with Garang in 1994 when talks first began. That was until IGAD plotted to intervene militarily,” explained a diplomat who cannot be named because he is still actively employed at the bloc. He was referring to the conflict in Sudan that led to the secession of South Sudan in 2011, with warring parties having signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005.
“Customs and precedents are often stronger than conventions in conflict resolutions. IGAD’s view has often been for inclusivity,” he explained.
In Sudan, mediators have struggled to have parties meet one-on-one. An arranged meeting in December failed to materialise after Daglo claimed it was inconvenient. He then went on for a victory lap across the continent, angering Burhan more. In Khartoum, however, Burhan hardly speaks it himself, leaving it to his lieutenants. Some observers have suggested this is a way of showing that the idea of dialogue with Daglo is massively rejected within the Sudan Armed Forces ranks.
Yet IGAD has lobbied to rope in other fringe parties. This week, Kenya’s President met with Abdulwahid Al- Nur, the Leader of the Sudan Liberation Movement, one of the stand-alone armed groups in Sudan.
“I underscored the urgency of all actors in Sudan engaging in efforts to stop the war, facilitate humanitarian access, protect civilians and support a pathway towards civilian political governance. “Kenya welcomes Mr Nur’s expressed commitment to support the IGAD regional roadmap for restoration of peace and security in Sudan,” Ruto said.
In the previous Sudan war, Bashir boycotted talks until 1997. But even then, he refused one-on-ones, choosing instead to have proximity dialogue: where representatives of warring parties meet. They would eventually meet in Kenya. IGAD has also used the South Sudan example where both President Salva Kiir and his then nemesis Riek Machar were gathered on Addis Ababa in 2014, having fought from December 2013. Their talks too dragged on but mediators often saw possible peace as long as sides were in contacts.
“These are traditions that are already set and nothing can erase this practice. It is important at this time, in the history of Sudan, the principle of refusing to attend meetings does not negate the history of conflict resolutions by IGAD,” the official explained.
Sudan’s junta, nonetheless, is fighting both at home and abroad. This week, the Foreign Ministry protested as unjust the sanctions imposed by the European Union on Sudanese economic institutions.
"The sanction operation, which is especially directed against (Sudan's) national institutions, will not help achieve peace," it said in a statement.
“The right and duty to defend the country necessitate the SAF to seek to achieve sufficiency in defensive equipment, and all laws guarantee the right to self-defense," the ministry added.
The European Council had on Monday adopted sanctions against six entities affiliated with the SAF and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), including asset freezes and prohibition of the provision of funds or economic resources, directly or indirectly. It said in a statement that the six entities were responsible for "supporting activities that undermine the stability and political transition of Sudan." Sudan has been witnessing deadly clashes between the SAF and the RSF since April 15, 2023.
More than 12,000 people had been killed, and over 7.4 million had been displaced inside and outside Sudan since the fighting broke out, according to earlier estimates by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
The country though has looked stuck in war. Last week, groups calling themselves the ‘Armed People's Resistance’ issued calls to arm citizens in several Sudanese states under the control of the Sudanese military. The calls were welcomed by Burhan, saying: "We will not prevent the Sudanese resistance from bringing any weapons.”
The so-called popular resistance is active in mobilising the people and training them to carry weapons in the areas controlled by the Sudanese army, where thousands joined its ranks in the Nile River and Northern states in northern Sudan, Sennar, Gedaref, Kassala and Port Sudan in the east, and the White Nile in the center of the country.
Sudan has previous experience with arming civilians, especially in the Darfur region where war crimes were committed in the early 2000s, according to an indictment of Omar al-Bashir at the International Criminal Court (ICC).
EU Foreign Policy chief Josep Borrell on Wednesday expressed concern about ethnic violence in Sudan, warning that its spread in the region was a “real danger.”
Following his meeting with the UN Secretary-General's envoy to Sudan, Ramtane Lamamra, Borrell said on platform X that “Sudan has more IDPs than any other country on earth. Ethnic violence is alarming. Regional contagion is a real risk.”
He said, “the worst crisis in Africa cannot be a second-class priority on the agenda of the international community…closing of regional platforms is evidence of the inability of the Sudanese government and the failure of its diplomacy to exploit them for the benefit of the cause.”
