Zimbabwe ruling party entices Mnangagwa with term extension

Zimbabwe’s ruling party, Zanu-PF, has passed a controversial resolution seeking to amend the country’s constitution. This could see President Emmerson Mnangagwa extend his term by two years.

The resolution at the party’s annual congress came after months of campaigns by Zanu-PF to remove the two five-year presidential term limits.

It came even as President Mnangagwa, on three occasions this year, stated that he would retire when his term ends in 2028. The maneuvers by his loyalists pushing for the term extension suggest they have his blessings.

The party says it resolved that “(President Mnangagwa’s term of office as president of the Republic of Zimbabwe and first secretary of Zanu-PF be extended beyond 2028 to 2030.”

“The party and government should, therefore, set in motion the necessary amendments to the national constitution to give effect to this resolution.”

Amending the constitution to remove the presidential term limits will be a daunting task for the aging leader, who will need to win a referendum before the next elections scheduled for 2028.

The party’s decision is not endorsed by everyone associated with the government, however. Sources told The East African that the military, which catapulted him into power after a coup that toppled long-time ruler Robert Mugabe in 2017, is against him running for a third term.

His deputy Constantino Chiwenga, who led the coup as the then army commander, is one of the few top ruling party leaders who have not publicly backed the campaign for President Mnangagwa to stay in office beyond 2028.

Former Finance minister Tendai Biti said the 82-year-old ruler was determined to hang on to power despite public posturing.

“The third term agenda is alive and kicking,” said Mr Biti, who was involved in the crafting of the 2023 constitution that introduced the presidential term limits.

“It is gross naivety to think Zanu PF will not pursue this project to the end,” he added.

This means that Zimbabwe faces its biggest existential threat since the 1980s massacres in southern parts of the country.

Mr Biti, a veteran opposition politician and constitutional law expert, said the Zanu-PF resolution was a “disastrous polemic.”

“We have consistently argued that the third term agenda is a retrograde ambition that will push Zimbabwe to the brink of conflict,” he said. “The overwhelming majority of Zimbabweans are decisively opposed to this.

“Term limits offer protection against autocratic hegemony and those who lived 38 year-long years of abuse under (Mr) Mugabe must surely understand the importance of term limits.”

Power shift

Mr Mugabe became Zimbabwe’s first post-independence leader in 1980 and ruled with an iron fist until he was toppled by the military.

President Mnangagwa, who was his confidante since the country’s 1970s war of liberation, masterminded the coup.

He promised a “new and unfolding democracy”, but he is now accused of being a worse autocrat than his predecessor.

In his seven years in power, he has jailed hundreds of opposition activists and introduced draconian laws that critics say are a way of entrenching his power.

Walter Mzembi, who was Mr Mugabe’s last Foreign Affairs minister, said the Zanu PF resolution was choreographed.

“So eventually the reluctant (President) Mnangagwa will be nudged and persuaded to accept the people’s will,” said Mr Mzembi, who has been living in exile since the coup.

“The scenario papers were produced way back and are ready to be actualised on the back of this much awaited conference resolution.

“They include a 2030 two-year extension, a 2024 third term scenario and a 2038 scenario including a 10-year moratorium on elections to allow recovery and consolidation of the economy as an excuse.”

Legality issue

Lovemore Madhuku, a constitutional law expert, said amending the constitution to remove the presidential term limits could prove a daunting task for Zanu-PF politically and legally.

“From a legal point of view, I don’t think they even know what is required,” Professor Madhuku said.

“They are likely to be making one blunder after another as they cannot succeed legally.

“In other words, they do not have the capacity to understand what the constitution requires for them to remove the two term limit.

“That is the first problem they face. I’m sure I don’t want to be sad. Zanu-PF does not have sufficient legal acumen within their circles to be able to tackle that.”

He said the party also did not have enough political support to win a referendum on the term limits.

Critics say President Mnangagwa has largely failed to deliver on his promises to turn around Zimbabwe’s economy after two decades of turmoil.

The country continues to suffer from an unstable currency, acute power and food shortages.

Drought and food insecurity

Over seven million Zimbabweans will this year rely on food handouts after one of the worst droughts in decades and unemployment remains very high as businesses continue to shut down due to the poor economic situation, making the push of President Mnangagwa to extend his term a tough sell.

Eldred Masunungure, a Harare-based political analyst, said the military was likely to have the final say in President Mnangagwa’s third-term debate.

“It is more likely that the matter will be settled through negotiations among the major gladiators in the party and, critically, the military,” Mr Masunungure said.

“This is not just a party matter, the military has a strong vested interest in how the issue is settled and will be at the negotiating table when the matter is discussed to its finality.”

General Chiwenga’s intent to take over President Mnangagwa has also faced resistance from the president’s loyalists.

President Mnangagwa last year won a controversial re-election in polls that observer missions, including those from Africa, said did not meet regional standards as his opponents were prevented from campaigning.

One of those observer missions was the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) which termed the polls as unfair. It led to a diplomatic spat between Zambia and Zimbabwe because Zambia was then chair of SADC.

The opposition also disputed the 2018 polls, which came a year after the coup, and gave him the first full term in office. The military responded to the ensuing protests by shooting dead six people on the streets of Harare.

Zimbabwe has a history of disputed elections that stretches back to the early years of the country’s independence in 1980.