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The rains are here; what farmers should do
What you need to know:
Different climate conditions will have an influence on the rainy season, expected to last for the next two to three months. Below is a forecast by the Department of Meteorology, Ministry of Water and Environment. There is also an advisory for what farmers should do.
March to May constitutes the first major rainfall season and there are major physical conditions, which are likely to influence the weather in Uganda during this period. These include current conditions over tropical Pacific Ocean and the influence of the emerging cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures over much of the western Indian Ocean.
Based on the analysis of these as well as the physical features of the different regions of the country, Department of Meteorology has made the following forecast for the country and different areas.
Overall, there is an increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall (more rain than usual) over most parts of Uganda. The breakdown of the forecast for each region is given as follows:
Eastern Region
Eastern Lake Victoria and South Eastern: (Jinja, Kamuli, Iganga, Bugiri, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, Busia and Tororo)
The region experienced on-and-off dry spells, which continued to the end of February. Thereafter, irregular rains set in and are likely to continue up to around mid-March, when the onset of steady rains is expected. The peak is expected around early April through early May and expected to cease around early June. There is a high chance of receiving near-normal rains.
Eastern Central: (Pallisa, Budaka, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Bududa, Kapchorwa, Kumi, Soroti, Serere, Amolatar, Butaleja, Bulambuli, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea, and Ngora)
There have been irregular rains since January 2013 but the steady rains are expected to intensify through March with the peak occurring around mid-April to early May. Thereafter, the rains are expected to reduce sharply by late May. Overall, near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected.
North Eastern region: (Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Abim, Eastern Otuke, Napak, Amudat, Amuria, and Kaabong)
The region has been experiencing occasional light showers and thunderstorms since January. The onset of steady rains is expected in early April which will taper off towards end of May. Overall, near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected.
Northern Region
Eastern northern Parts: (Lira, Kitgum, Agago, Western Otuke, Kole, Dokolo and Kaberamaido)
There have been occasional outbreaks of light rain showers. From around late March to early April, there will be steady rains with the peak rains expected around mid-May to late May. Near-normal rainfall is expected during this season.
Central Northern Parts: (Gulu, Apac, Western Pader, Lamwo, Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam and Kiryandongo)
The onset of seasonal rains is expected around late March to early April. The steady rains are expected to increase with the peak being experienced around late April to mid-May. This will be followed by a moderate relaxation during the month of June. Near-normal rainfall is expected to prevail during this season.
North Western: (Moyo, Yumbe, Adjumani, Arua, Terego, Zombo, Nebbi, Koboko)
It has been mainly dry with occasional outbreaks of light rain showers. The onset of seasonal rains is expected between mid to late March to early April. These rains are expected to increase around first week of April and relax around mid-June. There is a high chance of near-normal rainfall during this season.
Western Region
Western Central: (Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima and Kibaale)
There have been on-and-off light rains since January. Seasonal rains are getting established in this region and the peak is expected around early April to mid-April, which will reduce in late May and stop in early June. Overall, the region is expected to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall.
South Western: (Kisoro, Kabale, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Isingiro, Ibanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi and Kasese)
The onset of steady seasonal rains is being established in this region and the peak expected early to mid-April, which will last to between early to late May. It is expected to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall during this season.
Lake Victoria Basin and Central Areas
Central and Western Lake Victoria Basin: (Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Eastern Masaka, Lwengo, South Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba, and Mityana)
This region is experiencing on and off outbreaks of light showers, thunderstorms and lightning marking the onset of seasonal rains. The rains are expected to intensify with the peak rains occurring in the first week of April and go on to late May to early June. There are high chances of near-normal rainfall.
Western Parts of Central: (Nakasongola, Luwero, Kyankwanzi, Nakaseke Kiboga, Mubende, Sembabule, Western Masaka, Lyantonde, and Rakai)
There are on and off dry spells with the seasonal rains expected in mid-March, which are expected to intensify to peak levels around mid-April. These will go on to around late May to early June. There are high chances of near normal rainfall over several parts of this region.
Eastern parts of Central: (Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, Buvuma)
This region is currently experiencing occasional outbreaks of light showers and thunderstorms signifying the onset of steady seasonal rains. The steady rains are expected to intensify reaching peak level in mid-April. Thereafter, steady decline in the rains is expected until early June. Near-normal rainfall is expected over this region.
Expected impacts
In general, the occurrence of the good rainfall performance is likely to have some implications on various socio-economic activities.
The positive potential impacts include good crop performance and improved food production in cropping areas and in pastoral areas increased pasture and water for animals.
However, it should be noted there was normal to above-normal rains in many parts of the country during the last rainy season (September to December 2012), which had a positive effect on food production in several places.
In conclusion, the predicted rains require action in sufficient time and in an appropriate manner so as to take advantage of the anticipated rains. This should be used for improvement of economic welfare and livelihoods for all communities.
