Bobi Wine tour: A chance for Opposition to resurrect

He told a Kampala radio station on Wednesday, August 23, that he has been involved in the production of a documentary on President Museveni intended to highlight to international audiences what he said is the brutal human rights track record of the NRM government.

NUP has also been quiet in parliamentary debate, showing that it is better as a protest movement than as a conventional parliamentary political party.

A meet-the-people tour suits Kyagulanyi better than discussions of government fiscal spending and parliamentary legislation.

In the meantime, another leading Opposition party, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) has been imploding from a clash between two factions.

A faction in another party, the Democratic Party (DP) led by Norbert Mao completed its absorption into the ruling NRM party.

A Kyagulanyi tour around the country will, therefore, fill in the vacuum in the Opposition’s visibility.

The first and most obvious outcome of Kyagulanyi’s tour will be for comparisons to be drawn with Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s current tour.

Since many people believe Muhoozi’s rallies are attended by crowds that have been paid or transported to do so, NUP and other Opposition supporters will want to prove a point that their attendance of Kyagulanyi’s rallies is genuine and voluntary.

In effect, these rallies by Kyagulanyi and Muhoozi will be viewed as informal polls or tests of public opinion and the public mood.

Thus, we can expect large crowds wherever Kyagulanyi visits.

Tactical point of view
From a tactical point of view, it would be wise for the NRM government to let Kyagulanyi tour the country unhindered, if only to diffuse the growing resentment within the army and other security forces at the way Muhoozi is being allowed to openly engage in political self-promotion, which if done by any other military officer would lead to their being court-martialled.

If the government anticipates the double standards and permits Kyagulanyi to go ahead with his rallies, then those rallies will become a rallying point for the pent-up frustration with the state of the economy, clampdown on the Opposition, and against Muhoozi’s own campaigns.

Will the government see the wisdom in letting Kyagulanyi’s tour go ahead?
If the track record of the last 20 years is anything to go by, it probably will not and will instead move to block the rallies citing all sorts of unconvincing reasons.

Many officials in the NRM state, from district police commanders to court magistrates, have sensed for many years that taking a hardline stance toward the Opposition puts them in Museveni’s favour.

They will want to be seen to be acting uncompromisingly against any NUP rallies.
Other officials, mindful of the recent World Bank funding cut and the sanctions on some army generals over their human rights record, might wish to act moderately lest they find themselves on European Union or United States travel bans.

Given the previous intervention by the police to stop Opposition leaders such as Kizza Besigye, Mugisha Muntu, Norbert Mao and Kyagulanyi from holding campaign rallies in different upcountry towns, the public will be watching to see what the police does.

If Kyagulanyi’s rallies are disrupted, the double standards in as far as Muhoozi is concerned will be glaring and elicit a resentful response from the public.

Will the FDC also use Kyagulanyi’s national tour to deflect attention from the factional fighting and re-focus public attention and the attention of FDC supporters on what the Opposition regards as Uganda’s biggest problem, the NRM government?

This is what the FDC should do; the question is whether or not the intra-party divisions are now too deep to permit the party to think and act as one and join hands with Kyagulanyi in a show of solidarity.

Since the Katonga Road wing of the FDC led by Besigye is, in spirit, much like the NUP, a logical move by FDC-Katonga would be to endorse Kyagulanyi’s tour and use this to rally the more militant FDC members toward FDC-Katonga and away from the secretariat FDC led by Patrick Amuriat and Nandala Mafabi.

If the FDC’s activist wing fails to take advantage of the Kyagulanyi tour and remains bogged down in the wrangles with FDC Najjanankumbi, then NUP will cement its standing as the main Opposition party.

Whatever the moves and calculations by the NRM government, Kyagulanyi, the Muhoozi camp, and the Katonga wing of the FDC, Daily Monitor as the country’s chief politically-oriented news outlet can expect a bumper few weeks in print sales and online readership.