NRM 2016: What to make of the Mbabazi political mystery

At the National Leadership Institute, Kyankwanzi, where it all started in February, the former prime minister was booed, heckled and taunted during meetings. During breaks, he was isolated and made to feel out of place.

His detractors in the party, who spoke to Sunday Monitor for this article on condition of anonymity, privately agree that Mr Mbabazi did not commit any crime by harbouring thoughts of drinking from the cup reserved for the party’s top boss.

They however accuse him of, due to selfish interests, of allegedly betraying the trust the chairman had placed in him and attempting to use it to scheme for and grab the party leadership from President Museveni.

When it came to running NRM, which role was most times infused with the running of the State, Mr Mbabazi thought he had a blank cheque handed to him directly from the President.

The type of blank cheque Cardinal Richelieu issued to Athos on December 3, 1627, in Alexandre Duma’s The Three Musketeers: “It is by order and for the good of the state (read party) that the bearer of this has done what he has done.”

As he used that carte blanche in running the party, he, according to those opposing him, instead begun laying strategies to propel himself to power – an action which they say is tantamount to treachery.

The case of the NRM is this; it’s a military-political movement that has been in power since 1986 and Museveni has run it and maintained power by exiling his rivals, and those who differ from his political thinking, from the party and the government.

It happened to his oldest comrades- such as the late Eriya Kategaya, and other challengers like Dr Besigye and Mugisha Muntu.

Mbabazi was at the centre of this type of intrigue—saving the State around Museveni, by helping him bundle away perceived threats— and has subsequently been viewed as its most loyal cadre.

Old guard
The present crisis around him could essentially be because he is the only one among the old guard left to pose a challenge to Museveni and so has to suffer the same treatment of being pushed away, no matter the method used.

Because there are not so many old guards with the excitement, the jettisoning has to be done by a younger fringe in the party.

This newer guard full of Museveni’s unquestioning admirers, yes men, and women to prove their allegiance by showing how willing they are to shatter the political career of a man who dared to eye the chairman’s seat.
For that they liken him to Iago, that fictional character in Shakespeare’s play Othello.

In the play, Iago is a Machiavellian schemer and manipulator. A sinister villain; often considered such because of the unique trust that Othello places in him which he instead betrays while maintaining an outward reputation of honesty and dedication by displaying his skill at deceiving other characters so that, not only do they not suspect him, but they go ahead and count on him as the person most likely to be truthful.

“We do not stop any member from showing interests in the chairmanship of the party as long as they come clean and declare so,” said one of the senior members opposed to what he called Mbabazi’s treachery.

He asks: “How can someone treat you as a brother, entrust you with almost everything and you instead try to stab him in the back?”
It is because of that, he says, they want him out of any influential position in the party.

Does it mean the Namboole meet will be the knockout punch for Amama?
“He is finished. He cannot stand for any position because the Central Executive Committee will not endorse his application. They sent him on leave with a one-way ticket not to return. He is gone,” this senior party apparatchik observed.

Some say Mbabazi’s strength and influence hit its nadir after being dropped from the prime minister (PM) position.

The sacking was followed by a choreographed military storming of his home—with media in tow- to withdraw his army guards who were replaced by men in police uniform.

This was followed by speculation that there was an impending arrest on allegations of complicity in money laundering. This forced the former PM’s lawyers to write to the police chief and Director of Public Prosecution asking for full disclosure of any investigations against their client – Mr Mbabazi.

Meanwhile, the party politburo went after him, demanding that he hand over the party register, which, the story goes; he strongly rejected and consequently went on forced leave. With Mbabazi on forced leave, this effectively paved the way for a Museveni-sponsored countrywide anti-Mbabazi mobilisation in all NRM districts not only to attempt to demystify his perceived strength, but also to undermine and undo what he had constructed in his favour.

The latest humiliation, however, came last week in Mbarara when a the district police commander, Dickens Bindeeba, dressed in sandals and jeans walked towards Mr Mbabazi and attempted to shove him off the podium as he addressed a late night media awards gala because the former premier had not informed the officer that he will be coming around. For a man once considered second to the President this was new low in the ‘humiliate Mbabazi’ crusade.
Could there be more humiliation in stock for him in Namboole? Well, the conference organisers are quick to dismiss the Mbabazi factor in Namboole.
“The conference is not about Mbabazi. The party is bigger than him. We are not doing whatever we are doing with Mbabazi in mind,” NRM Parliamentary Caucus spokesperson Evelyn Anite says.

Known to be one of Mbabazi’s leading detractors, she points out that although Mr Mbabazi is the reigning party secretary general, there will be no special seat reserved for him.

“He will come to the conference like any other delegate. There is nothing extra-ordinary or ordinary about him,” she said. “He is coming in as the MP for Kinkiizi West and he will sit with delegates from Kinkiizi.”

Anite, the Northern Uganda Youth representative in Parliament is the one who tabled the proposal during the Kyankwanzi NRM caucus retreat in February to have President Museveni as a sole candidate.
To prove how serious she was with the idea, she knelt down while declaring that no party member has the right to take on from Museveni—at least not now. She set the 2016 political discussion in motion that day.

Minister for Presidency Frank Tumwebaze, another Mbabazi critic, says the former premier is not “even” part of his thinking about the delegates’ conference.

“I don’t expect anything from Amama. I expect something from my party. That out of the conference, we shall be able to find solutions to prepare our party in readiness for group competition in 2016,” Mr Tumwebaze, who leads the publicity committee for the upcoming conference, told this newspaper.

Political commentator and social researcher, Fred Golooba Mutebi, warns that with the recent altercations, the party is most likely to break up if the situation is not handled soberly.

“Mbabazi has support. If you go to the country, there are those people who don’t know much about him but are supporting him. They think he has been President Museveni’s man and they are not happy with the way he is being treated,” he said.

A website dedicated to the former premier notes that he is 13th child in their family. His birth came when his mother no longer wished to have kids because she had lost quite a number either at birth or in infancy.

When he was born on January 16, 1949, his mother named him Mbabazi because irrespective of previous deaths of her children, God had showed them mercy and gave them another.

A section headlined ‘My early life’ on the site, describes him as being humble and hardworking. This could explain his indefatigable application to various assignations in national leadership positions, right from when he was a secretary of the Pan-African Students Association of Uganda.

From 1972, this could be the first time Mr Mbabazi finds himself on the fringes of political happenings, his own political family having launched a campaign to curb what members perceive as dangerous and divisive political ambitions.

Ever since the bubble burst, a dignified Mbabazi has maintained that he is neither interested in the party’s leadership, nor the nation’s presidency as long as Mr Museveni is still running for office.
Although those around him have sent messages to the contrary through their actions and words, the man from Kinkiizi has consistently maintained his allegiance to the party. He has also kept his political cards very close to his chest and maybe the wife, save for short statements of, “I will talk politics soon” which he has made whenever asked about his political intentions.

Could this ‘soon’ be December 15? And what could be his game plan given the anti-Mbabazi preparation his seemingly terrified opponents within continue to make?

Those questions are hard to answer, especially since the man himself has chosen to remain silent. Until recently, a few known associates have been publicly defending their man, but they too have gone underground – as if following orders to make a strategic/tactical retreat.
That notwithstanding, political researcher, Dr Frederick Kisekka-Ntale, offers some insight on how Mbabazi could approach the much anticipated delegates gathering.

Aura of a secretary general
Dr Kisekka-Ntale, who formerly worked with Makerere University Institute of Social Research, says the undercurrents in NRM do not favour Mbabazi and that it will be made much worse and more difficult for him if he decides to enter the conference with the aura of a secretary general.

“He should remain calm and enter the conference as any other delegate and continue to posture as a good listener in order to gauge the mood of the party and the propositions being advanced.

“He is the reigning secretary general but he should not enter with the aura of the secretary general that he was but the aura of the secretary general that he currently is- the inconsequential secretary general that he has been reduced to,” Dr Kisekka-Ntale says.

He further argues that what has been done to Mbabazi so far has left him a bruised man, a man of little consequence within the mainstream party scheme of things, and so keeping quiet offers him the possibility to understand the goings in and out at the conference and will reduce the intensity of confrontations from those that disagree with him.

Right now, Dr Kisekka-Ntale says, he may not be able to ascertain how much of his rented support will be reproduced at Namboole but the good politician in him should be able to tell him to be extremely observant and calculative.
“He knows the kind of humiliation he has been subjected to and he should know there’s more in the offing so he should know how much of the humiliation he can absorb and how much he cannot.

“If it is true he has been making inroads, he should then gauge the mood and grab an opportunity to announce his intentions,” the political scientist advises.

Forum for Democratic Change president Mugisha Muntu and senior party member Kizza Besigye prophesied the beginning of an end for NRM come December 15.

Nevertheless, until the D-day, it is only Mr Mbabazi who knows the approach he is going to take. Will he sit and watch? Will he take the bull by the horns? Will he form a splinter group? Will he announce something earth-shaking? Too many uncertainties, questions.

ABOUT DOSSIER THE PRESIDENT GOT ON AMAMA

In February, this newspaper saw a dossier, one of many, according to our sources, that the President received just before the Kyankwanzi retreat, which partly dictated the urgency to deal with the Mbabazi question.

At least three issues stood out of the brief: Mr Mbabazi’s alleged mobilisation efforts, his financial muscle and access to important foreign constituencies referred to as “increased visibility with diplomats, especially from Western European countries”.

The two-page brief referred to a subject named “India”— apparently the codename for Mr Mbabazi – detailing his alleged schemes. “For a while now, may be two years, fairly accurate information has been coming in that India has, instead of organising his family [NRM], is busy erecting structures for a possible 2016 bid,” the brief reads.

The brief went ahead to detail what the author claims is a well-calculated plan by “India” [Mr Mbabazi] to lay a foundation for a presidential bid mainly through NRM women, youth structures, media and an NGO.

Amama Mbabazi through the years in NRM

Over the last 40 years, Amama Mbabazi has served the country in different capacities.
1972-73: Secretary for pan-African Affairs, National Union of Students of Uganda
1972-1979: combatant Front for National Salvation (Fronasa)
1974-79: Fronasa head of internal operations
1977-78: Secretary Law Council
1975-78: State Attorney, Attorney General’s Chambers
1979-80: Director Legal Services, Uganda National Liberation Army
1981-86: Member National Resistance Army (Staff Officer in charge of external operations)
1986-92: Director General. External Security Organisation
1989-96: Member, National Resistance Council
1994-95: Constituent Assembly delegate Kinkizi West
1996 to date: Member of Parliament Kinkizi West County
1992-96: Minister of State for Sefence
1996-98: Minister of State in charge of political affairs (Office of the President)
1998-2001: Minister of state for Foreign Affairs in charge of regional corporation
2001-2006: Minister of Defence
2004- 2005: Attorney General
2005 to date: NRM Secretary General
2006-2011: Minister in charge of security, office of the president
2011- September 2014: Prime Minister

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