Stories expected to define 2024

Gen Muhoozi’s movements across the country, however, ran into the ground after Mr Male Mabirizi instituted criminal charges against him and his lieutenants. The maverick lawyer contended that it was criminal for Muhoozi, a serving military officer, to participate in political activity.
Before Muhoozi and his minions had made it clear that President Museveni’s advisor on special operations was destined to be on the ballot for the 2026 presidential elections. This followed a tweet from the First Son to that effect in March.

The tone, however, started to change with Mr Andrew Mwenda, the MK Movement publicist, at one point conceding that “assuming we don’t run for Presidency, we would want to influence policy within the NRM.”

In December  perhaps in another indication that he has toned down his political activities, Gen Muhoozi was given a chance to address what looked like a mini-rally in the southwestern district of Kisoro when Tesi Uwebambe, the daughter of former Inspector General of Police (IGP)  Kale Kayihura introduced Edwin Gasana, the son of former Rwandan IGP  Brig Emmanuel Gasana. There was an air of resignation.
“This time we have come for our function but next time we shall come to meet the people. I know we have a lot of support in Kisoro,” the First Son told the crowd.

NRM in 2024
In 2024, all eyes will yet again be fixed on Muhoozi and if at all he will go out “to meet the people,”   more so with the 2026 general elections nearing and all indications are that his father isn’t about to quit power.   
“What we have signed today is already supported by 70 percent of Uganda’s population and therefore we other segments now, elders, women will just come to reinforce for us to achieve success in 2026. We shall table that matter before HE the president and before CEC so that there is uniformity and there is also an agreed position,”  Vice President Jessica  Alupo said in October at a function in western Uganda.
The function was used by National Resistance Movement (NRM) leaders to sign a letter of support for Museveni’s re-election bid in 2026.

Opposition in 2024 
As the NRM realigns its troops, so too is the opposition. Already, alliances are being form with one half of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) led by opposition doyen Dr Kiiza Besigye and Kampala Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago warming up to Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu’s National Unity Platform ( NUP) party.

The Katonga faction, which splintered from the mother body at Najjanankumbi headlined by  Mr Patrick Oboi Amuriat, the FDC president, and his secretary general, Mr Nathan Nandala Mafabi, appears to have now coalesced around Mr Kyagulanyi. Observers believe that it is highly probable that the new ‘front’ will stage joint activities in 2024.

After the state apparatus was surprisingly not used to stop Mr Kyagulanyi’s political activities in 2023, it remains to be seen what the response will be like in 2024 with Dr Besigye joining the fray. What is also unclear is how long the alliance between the two political heavyweights will last since there is divergence on how Museveni should be booted from power.  

Whilst Kyagulanyi is preparing to have another shot at the presidency in the 2026 elections, Dr Besigye has time and again said that elections organised under the current circumstances can only lead to one result—Museveni retaining power. 
 
“If you are planning to look for a sole candidate to go to the 2026 elections,  I’m not with you. I will not be a party to be considered for those kinds of things. I don’t think 2026 in itself organised under what we have been discussing will ever cause Ugandans to be free. And the sooner we unite over that, the better for this country,” Besigye said. 

New Sheriff in town
The New Year will also, barring a disaster of epic proportions, bring with it a new Leader of Opposition in Parliament after NUP green-lit the replacement of Mr Mathias Mpuuga (Nyendo-Mukungwe) with the Mr Joel Ssenyonyi (Nakawa West).

READ: Inside Ssenyonyi’s 7-point programme as LoP

Ssenyonyi’s appointment which was seen as a long time in coming has created intense debate if at all he will be up to the task since Mpuuga had fallen out with the NUP core base. This was over allegations that Mpuuga was hobnobbing with parliament leadership that’s led by NRM stalwarts and that he had also dumped activism for tokenism.  On the other hand, Mpuuga’s supporters within NUP are not happy that their man hasn’t been given a chance to complete a full term, and with murmurs that the job will be big for Ssenyonyi who made his debut in parliament in 2021.   
How Ssenyonyi works around a sea of competing voices in 2024 will determine NUP’s fate going into the  2026 general elections.

Anti-gay legislation
Legally,  as 2024 starts the pressure is on the Constitutional Court judges led by Deputy Chief Justice Richard Buteera, Geoffrey Kiryabwire, Muzamiru Kibedi, Monica Mugenyi, and Christopher Gashirabake to either strike down the Anti-Homosexuality Act or uphold it.  They also have an option of taking out some of the sections that the West has found extreme.  
The passage of the Act into law has seen Uganda’s relationship with the West deteriorate with sanctions such as the World Bank not sanctioning new loans and also the US getting Uganda off the list of beneficiaries of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). 
President Museveni has at least publicly insisted the sanctions won’t make him cave in.  

“I need to advise you not to be over-concerned by the recent actions by the American Government in discouraging their companies from investing in Uganda and on removing Uganda from the AGOA list,” Museveni revealed in a statement, adding, “Some of these actors in the Western world overestimate themselves and underestimate the freedom fighters of Africa. On account of some of the freedom fighters making mistakes of philosophy, ideology, and strategy, some of the foreign actors erroneously think that African countries cannot move forward without their support.”  

With the Western donors funding a catalogue of the judiciary’s activities, it will be interesting to see how the Constitutional Court strikes a delicate balance in its judgment.   

ADF headache
Whilst Museveni has been having a rough time with the West, his other problem that will spill over into 2024 is the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). In 2021, the UPDF was allowed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo authorities to flush out the ADF terror groups from the eastern part of their country. Yet so far this seems not to have worked because the rebels have continued to carry out attacks inside Uganda.  
Museveni insists that the rebels have already been defeated and the latest attacks are the proverbial last kicks of a dying horse.  

“On account of these repeated atrocities by these infiltrators from Congo, I have directed the UPDF to reactivate the force of the LDUs in the areas surrounding Queen Elizabeth National Parks, Kibaale Forests, the forests in Kyenjojo and Kagadi, Semuliki National Park and Bwindi National Park.  Since the terrorists cowardly attack soft targets in the form of unarmed civilians, we are reactivating our old method of transforming the village soft targets into lethal local hard points.  We are not short of manpower.  It only means deploying more resources to support the manpower,”  Museveni said in December.  

‘No buying it’
With Museveni doubling down on the military approach experts who have researched about the rebel movement don’t buy it.  
“The military solution is useless in the face of political problems. The ADF is only a manifestation of the problem that has been producing rebellions and violence throughout Uganda’s history. President Museveni himself came to power through violence. Since then, he has been fighting rebellion after rebellion. Dozens of rebel groups have attempted to overthrow his government. Even if the military defeats the ADF, similar groups will emerge until the problem that produces rebellions and violence is addressed,” said Dr Yahya Sseremba, a research fellow at Makerere Institute of Social Research (MSIR), adding, “Uganda was founded on ethnic and religious polarisation. Much of the violence in Uganda’s history has been unleashed in the name of marginalised ethnic or religious constituencies. This is a political problem that no military is equipped to solve. I cannot prescribe a simple solution to such a complex political problem. But this is a useful point to start to think about the way forward.”