Machar ‘ouster’ signals fissures in South Sudan nascent govt of national unity

Experts on South Sudan, however, argue that the generals may have profited from enduring suspicions in the government of national unity to engineer a coup in the party.

“The ouster will just be regarded as a peace spoiler by Igad (Intergovernmental Authority on Development),” Dr James Okuk, a South Sudanese academic and political analyst, told The EastAfrican.

The regional bloc helped midwife a peace agreement in 2018. That agreement, officially known as the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan [R-ARCSS], was signed by the government of President Salva Kiir, Dr Machar’s group and other political groups.

“He cannot be sacked,” Dr Okuk said. “The 2018 R-ARCSS was written in favour of Dr Riek Machar.”

After the “sacking,” announcement by the generals — former SPLM-IO chief of general staff Gen Simon Gatwech Dual, former Sector 1 Commander Gen Johnson Olony Thubo, and former Sector 3 commander Thomas Mabor Dhoal — the SPLM-IO’s topmost organ, the political bureau, rejected the declaration, terming them peace spoilers.

“The bureau condemns in the strongest terms the ill-fated Kit-Gwang declaration. The three generals who met in Magnils don’t constitute SPLA-IO leadership of the Military Command,” it said in a statement, referring to a meeting near the border with Sudan.

The SPLM-IO Military Command, according to the Political Bureau, is composed of the commander-in-chief Riek Machar, chief of general staff and his deputies, commanders of nine sectors, and commander of general headquarters.

In fact, the bureau said the “new” commander-in-chief, Gen Dual, had already been fired from the duty.

“The declaration was engineered by peace spoilers who previously sponsored attacks on Turu cantonment site in Unity State, Liengkijji in Upper Nile State, Morta training centre in Central Equatoria State, and attacks in Western Bahr-el-Ghazal States,” the Bureau said.

No confirmation

The EastAfrican could not immediately verify the allegations, and the army generals did not respond to the accusations.

Dr Machar’s attempted ouster has been easier to beat back because of the way the revitalised agreement was framed, naming him in particular as the person from the SPLM-IO to take the seat of first vice-president as long as the transitional government exists.

Signed in September 2018, it says, at Article 1.7.2 that “the Chairman of the SPLM/IO Dr Riek Machar Teny shall assume the position of the First Vice President of the Republic of South Sudan for the duration of the transitional period.”

The agreement was only implemented from last year February, after Machar’s return from “wilderness” since 2016.

He seems to have learnt from the past, however. In 2016, then as Chairman of SPLM-IO, he fled Juba after his forces clashed with President Kiir’s. The president would replace Machar as vice-president with a friendlier Taban Deng Gai, who had created a splinter group in SPLM-IO. Mr Gai remained vice president until the unity government was formed, but he still gained a stake in the new administration, remaining one of the five vice-presidents as a representative of the splinter group.

SPLM-IO allies of Machar feel that the party coup attempt was another effort by other parties to the unity government to split the group, weaken its position in the government and give President Kiir an advantage.

“It could trigger fighting in Upper Nile region,” warned James Oryema, a senior official in the SPLM-IO and ally of Machar. “But it will have no effect on the structure of the Government of National Unity.”

The Political Bureau said the situation was calm and “we assure the people of South Sudan that the condition is under control.”

But the alleged ouster exposed fissures that could hurt the country’s reform agenda, including an imminent elections after the end of the 30 months for the unity government [which could be extended on an agreement].

One, united army

One area it could hurt is the targeted merger of militias into a professional army. According to the 2018 peace accord, all opposition and government forces are supposed to be trained and unified under one professional national army. This is yet to be done, meaning the country still hosts various “commanders-in-chief.”

On Wednesday, the anti-Machar generals said he no longer represented the interests of the wider population in South Sudan because he had forgotten the “vision” of the party. Through Brig-Gen William Gatjiath Deng, they accused him of nepotism and dictatorship.

The EastAfrican has learnt that with the Political Bureau dismissing the generals’ action, the next thing will be a purge of the peace spoilers.

Yet, the writing has been on the wall. When Dr Machar took up the First Vice-President’s role last year, he asked his army chief Gatwech Dual to report to Juba, a call that the general kept turning down, saying there was no need for him to be in the capital.

After several exchanges between the two senior army and political divisions, Machar’s office in late June dismissed Gen Dual as chief of general staff , an action the general trashed.

Gen Dual was appointed as chief of general staff of the SPLA-IO on December 21, 2014 and remains in that position. He returned to Juba after the August 2015 peace agreement between President Kiir and Dr Machar, but fled when the 2016 war broke out.

*Written by Garang Malaka and Aggrey Mutambo