‘A Kadaga bid for President is a path littered with ‘rocks’

She had just been elected chairperson of the Commonwealth Women Parliamentarians International body and, there on the elevator with her aides, and me, she was headed for a series of meetings that would stretch late into the night.

“People back home are asking that you stand for President,” I said to her as we rolled down.

“Is that what they are saying? Is that what they are asking for? No. Tell them we should first concentrate on serving women,” Ms Kadaga said in between bouts of laughter.

A more direct question on whether she would run received a not-so-clear response.

“Let’s concentrate on this one first,” she said, before laughing loudly again.

Ms Kadaga, who joined active politics in 1989, has risen from the backbench in Parliament, holding several ministerial dockets before rising to a deputy and later full Speaker of Parliament.

She has gradually and steadily built a reputation for being a straightforward, relatively candid and people-centric politician.

Civil society organisations and political pundits place her among the few remaining voices of democracy and good governance. That assumed commitment is being tested, especially now with the constitutional dispute surrounding the four legislators expelled from the NRM party, a decision she says is difficult to effect under the current laws.

While campaigning to be speaker two years ago, Ms Kadaga promised to bring an end to bad leadership, be impartial, fight corruption and stand tall in defending Parliament.

Her backers say she has been firm, impatient with parliamentary lawlessness and has resisted attempts by the Executive to ram through anti-people positions.

Whereas those who root for her say the Executive has been forced to sneak in contentious issues for discussion when she is out of Parliament, her critics question the timing of her absence whenever a matter deemed politically explosive comes to the floor for debate.

Anti-corruption crusader Cissy Kagaba says although the Speaker’s performance is laudable, she has not enforced discipline in the House—a trait critical for anyone aspiring for even higher office.

“The attendance of plenary has been very poor and yet the Speaker has failed to act or punish anyone even when the MPs keep claiming taxpayers’ money,” Ms Kagaba says. Ms Kagaba says this lack of action could define a Kadaga presidency if it materialises.

“She will not be concerned about those that use public funds yet they don’t deliver,” says the activist.

However, the Speaker recently worked with the Executive to bar legislators from flying abroad until the 2013/14 budget was passed. She also announced that she would bar MPs who miss more than three sittings from contributing to debate.

But what does her “inner circle” say about a possible Kadaga candidacy for presidency come 2016?

“She could be a real spanner in the works for Museveni and NRM,” says Mr Abdu Katuntu, the shadow Attorney General, a close confidant of the Speaker. “She would lead to a lot of political re-alignment. She can cause the sort of Kenyan political architecture of who goes with who in what alliance and for what.”

An “outsider”, however, warns that with so much talk about Kadaga’s ambitions in the public domain, she might be “cut to size” if she does not take the plunge.

“Her political clock is waning,” said the source, a senior leader in the NRM, who asked for anonymity in order to discuss freely. “The NRM is going to isolate her because of the positions she has taken against the party.”

“If she doesn’t decide her political path, Museveni will decide it for her. He will ditch her as speaker and either send her to the Judiciary or to an international posting like the UN,” the politician adds.

That Ms Kadaga enjoys support across the political divide in Parliament is not in doubt. The plaudits were visible when Parliament recently decided to pay tribute to her after she won the Commonwealth slot. A couple of MPs directly asked her to vie for the top seat.

Mr Katuntu says that is the goldmine Ms Kadaga is sitting on. The argument is that perhaps rather than use the current political parties, she should start a third force—that unites people of different political shade—to run for presidency.

“She enjoys the support of most of the Ugandans no matter their political inclination and that is a huge constituency on top of the women and professionals,” Mr Katuntu says.

Another Kadaga confidante, Ms Betty Amongi, the Oyam South MP, says the Speaker’s “natural strong-headedness” can help her weather the inevitable resultant storms if she decides to contest.

“When she is being coerced into doing something she doesn’t believe in, she will never do it. She always stands her ground,” Ms Amongi, an opposition MP, says.

If Ms Kadaga heeds the advice to vie for the NRM presidential ticket, she can expect a bruising fight from current chair President Museveni, former vice president Gilbert Bukenya and Mr Amama Mbabazi, the secretary general, if he also jumps into the fray.

It will be even more interesting if Mr Mbabazi, who is also the Leader of Government Business in Parliament, is involved, seeing that there is no political love lost between him and the Speaker. Mr Mbabazi and Ms Kadaga do not see eye to eye on key issues in both the party and on the floor of Parliament.

A spat between the two very strong-willed characters recently nearly got out of hand after the Observer newspaper reported that Mr Mbabazi had accused the Speaker of being sympathetic to the opposition.

Ms Kadaga responded by issuing a statement on the floor of the House, stinging Mr Mbabazi. Government later clarified that the Primier had not made the statements attributed to him. The President is reportedly handling the re-unification process of the two.

‘Game spoiler’
President Museveni continues to wield a firm control over the NRM party but if the Speaker threw her hat into the ring, she could complicate matters for him. Ms Kadaga is viewed largely as a centrist who leans towards an emerging progressive wing of the party. The President has reportedly alluded to this liberal approach that continues to unsettle the establishment.

In a recent media article, the NRM deputy party spokesperson and head of the government Media Centre, Mr Ofwono Opondo, hinted on the fact that Ms Kadaga must remember that the NRM party sponsored her for election both as MP and Speaker.

Several senior NRM members contacted for comment turned down our requests, most citing the “sensitive” nature of the subject but Government Chief Whip Justine Lumumba, responded, “it is her right” in a text message in reference to Ms Kadaga’s presidential ambitions.

On the downside, some parliamentarians say Ms Kadaga is not reliable and can abandon colleagues in the hour of need.

“She loves the comfort zone. She fears controversy and she has on several occasions left us at the frontline,” said an MP.

“She treats her deputy (Jacob Oulanyah) with an arm’s length approach and as an item to be used. That is bad coming from a politician meant to have a nationalist touch.” Also compared to Mr Mbabazi, her critics say she lacks the composure, intellect and charm that the man from Kanungu exudes.

Mr Katuntu also says Ms Kadaga “easily gets irritated by stupid arguments. She rarely has patience for shallow, silly arguments” as he compares the Speaker to former UK Iron Lady Margaret Thatcher.

Gender minister Karooro Okurut says discussing a Kadaga candidacy now is premature, saying the matter of who will be NRM candidate come 2016 will be decided by the National Executive Committee.

Opposition and female activist Ingrid Turinawe, however, says Ms Kadaga should not think of running on an NRM ticket.

“She can make an impact if she chooses to run as an independent ...If she comes with that NRM mentality of no change, I will not support her.”

Can Kadaga capture the women vote?
Since independence, Uganda has never had a peaceful transfer of power. Having captured power through armed insurrection, President Museveni has ruled for close to three decades now. His backers cite achievements in security and economy as reason for his re-elections while critics point to use of the military and money to win polls.

President Museveni has also been a favourite of the women voters, who credit him for giving them a ‘voice’ through a plethora of affirmative policies.

Whereas women like Miria Obote and Beti Kamya have taken a shot at the presidency, it has been a feeble one. So, would Kadaga pose the real possibility of a woman ascending the highest political throne in Uganda?

“When people debate Kadaga, they don’t debate her womanhood but issues. Even those who disagree with her. She has shown that women can make it,” says Oyam MP Betty Amongi says.

Western Youth Gerald Karuhanga says: “Women identify with her as someone who appreciates their problems and her candidature would signify that the women’s time has come.”

Referring to Ms Obote and Ms Kamya’s attempts, Bugweri Couty MP Abdu Katuntu said: “Those could not be described as serious candidates. They contested well knowing that they couldn’t have the swing vote because they never had a particular following and they lacked the national appeal.”

The rural women, says Ms Amongi, could give Ms Kadaga the vote because of her personality while the elite women would appreciate her track record.

“You think if Kadaga came for president I will be UPC? I will focus on being a woman first,” Ms Amongi says, an opposition MP. “She listens to leaders from across the political divide.”

Statistics places the women population at 16.7 million out of 34.1 million Ugandans.

Mr Katuntu says Ms Kadaga has the real possibility of capturing this constituency, adding that only women like Winnie Byanyima, the president of Oxfam International, has a CV that matches that of the speaker.

Next Monday: Can Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi finally make a case for leading the queue?

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