SONA: What Ugandans expect to hear from the President

The President will need to deal with endemic corruption perpetrated by crony capitalism, bribery, and complicit public servants who receive bribes to sustain their lifestyles. He will also need to deal with expanding the narrow tax base marked with trader protests, a majority of whom are against the newly-introduced Electronic Fiscal Receipting and Invoicing Solution (EFRIS), a tax collection method; a bloated public sector, a groundswell of resentment caused by the income inequalities through the practice of paying few high-ranking public servants and politicians, high incomes, several perks and gratuity at the expense of millions of unemployed youth, and the spike in violent crimes, as well as white-collar crime.

Corruption

The major focus of the address, which the President revealed will focus on corruption, during his June 3 remarks at the Catholic Church Martyrs Shrine, Namugongo, is timely.

Barely a week after the erstwhile ally, the United States joined the United Kingdom to impose unilateral sanctions against senior government officials, the President may seek to draw a line in the sand in regard to the question of sovereignty by crafting a message that unilateral sanctions disregard the independence of states and  are a futile attempt meant to usurp the powers of domestic courts to try suspects.

 The sanctions targeted the Speaker of Parliament, Anita Among, Junior Finance minister Amos Lugoolobi, and two former Karamoja Affairs ministers; Mary Goretti Kitutu and her junior Agness Nandutu alongside their spouses over ‘significant corruption.’

With overtones raging that the sanctions are a neo-colonial lash against the Speaker and Parliament, which enacted the anti-homosexuality law, viewed as draconian in the West, Mr Museveni may specifically question why the US and the UK rushed to impose sanctions at the time of an ongoing domestic trial of Mr Lugoloobi, Dr Kitutu and Ms Nandutu in the Anti-Corruption Court, which goes against the presumption of innocence—the golden thread of the criminal justice system. 

Unilateral sanctions naturally clash with the foundational principles that regulate and govern international relations as stated in the Charter of the United Nations and the 1970 Declaration of Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States.

In singling out why Uganda remains in the crosshairs of the West, the President may adroitly collate the subject of sovereignty and the emerging global contest between the hegemonic America, which continues to project its influence through a unipolar world, the emergency of China in the far-east under a bipolar system and multipolarity, which has emerged from the ashes of the cold war.

He could portray Uganda, which is currently the chair of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), as the lightning rod of this backlash at the time the middle powers seek to contain the military and economic influence of the US.  This also comes at the time there is a re-alignment of the geo-political and geo-strategic terrain in East Africa.

On May 25, Kenya’s President William Ruto returned from the US after clinching a deal, which gave the neighbouring state a special status as the most influential ally of Western powers in Africa. In the early 2000s, the West rolled out the red carpet for Mr Museveni, especially after he became a key proxy in the fight against terror in the Horn of Africa enclave.

However, the President may seek to pursue a middle-of-the-road position as the West, specifically the US, continues to give the Ugandan government nearly $1 billion in aid annually. Western institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) through its Poverty Reduction and Growth Support provide interest-free loans, including the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID), as well as the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, among others, remain a source of affordable lending through concessional loans compared to the stringent lending terms by Chinese banks and high-interest rates of the Eurobond, a fixed-income debt interest.

However, the proponents of unilateral sanctions proffer that they are designed to disempower governments, organisations, and persons for such reasons as state sponsorship of terrorism; regionally destabilising uses of armed force; usurpation of democracy; widespread and systematic human rights violations, and corruption.

This is in tandem with the views of Political Science lecturers Prof Philip Kasaija, and Dr Moses Khisa, and human rights lawyer Nicholas Opiyo, who argue that the sanctions are “a sword directed at government for the collective failure and complicity by Uganda’s investigating agencies to probe high-profile officials implicated in corruption and human rights abuses.”

According to the 2023 Transparency International corruption index survey conducted in 180 countries, Uganda, which has several watchdog agencies, policies, and laws to fight graft, is dismally ranked at position 141.

During his 2021 Sona, the President defined the anatomy of corruption.

“It starts in Finance, where projects are designed with supernumerary elements (extras); these bloated projects go to ministries, then to committees of Parliament, and then to the Auditor-General, where there is collusion all the way,” the President revealed in his speech.

He added: “What the corrupt fraternity did not factor in their kibaro [calculation] of corruption and criminality, was the large number of the young people the NRM has trained over the years, many of them coming from the middle-class, where they do not have the pressure of home poverty. I have been discussing with my children, who are now senior adults, the timeliness of creating the DRA (the Descendants’ Resistance Army I) to take forward the work of the original NRA of their parents.”

The President singled out then Uganda Communications Commission Executive Director Irene Kaggwa, “who is doing a commendable and clean job.”

Today, the vultures continue to circle the skies after Ms Kaggwa unceremoniously exited in November 2023. She was replaced by former ICT junior minister Nyombi Thembo.

 Analysts opine that the President, whose character was formed in the crucible at the frontline of the garrison town of Luweero, during the five-year Bush War, captured power in 1986 and a semblance of stability and economic growth, needs to change tact to take on high-profile targets and those perceived as untouchables, if he is to win the war against corruption.

“For President Museveni to say he will make the fight against corruption his priority, a departure from his tendency to focus on investment and infrastructure, is a signal of the behind-the-scenes pressure he is under from the major Western donor countries. The West itself is feeling growing pressure on its borders and resources by migrants from badly-run countries and one of the solutions is to press for better governance of these countries,” argues Timothy Kalyegira, a researcher and journalist.

“Museveni, however, will fail because his rule, as his past guerrilla activity, depends on working with small circles of trusted supporters and relatives. Most of the biggest corruption scandals are by this inner-circle, which he cannot clamp down on without undermining his power.”

Mr Nicholas Sengoba, a political analyst told the Monitor: “I find it rather redundant to talk about what I would like President Museveni to include in his State-of-the-Nation-Address today, except his announcing when he intends to leave power, which is unlikely. For 38 years and counting, he has already said everything that I would wish him to say. Sadly, he has done nothing positive about what he says.”

Economy

At the domestic level, the President will need to deal with reviving an economy, which is yet to rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic and ensure that household incomes improve and the soaring cost of living declines.

He will need to ensure that beyond the debate about Uganda’s march towards the lofty lower middle-income status, whose threshold is $1,036 (Shs3.9m), per capita income, is not cosmetic and translates into the overall wellbeing of the citizenry. The World Bank estimates that Uganda’s current per capita income is $997 (Shs3.7m) but the President has repeatedly said Uganda’s per capita income is now at $1,046 (Shs4m). There are fears that in its attempt to finance its astronomical Shs75 trillion National Budget in the next financial year, the regressive taxes on items such as fuel and cement, which the government intends to roll out, could send more Ugandans into abject poverty, which will scuttle the country’s ability to reach the lower-middle income status.

Poverty

The other compelling issue is the state of the poverty alleviation programmes rolled out by the government, including the Parish Development Model, where by the end of the financial year, the government will have spent nearly Shs2 trillion; the Operation Wealth Creation; Emyooga loans; the four-acre model and the subject of value-addition to halt the export of raw materials, which in the President’s words is, “a new form of slavery.” Will they turn into an economic miracle or mirage?

During his address, the President is expected to offer hope that the government, which has hedged its growth trajectory on oil production, will soon attract nearly $15b of Foreign Direct Investment, which can inject growth into the economy.

He will also need to show that the maligned $10b East African Crude Oil Pipeline (Eacop)—the longest heated pipeline, which meanders across a 900-mile expanse across the bio-diverse Albertine until the coastal town of Tanga in Tanzania, will remain a priority for funding by the global lending sector.

Crime

The President is expected to deal with the question of a spike in violent crimes and aggravated robberies across urban centres and the ability of investigating agencies to conduct covert intelligence to nip criminality in the bud. It comes a month after the President appointed the FBI-trained Abbas Byakagaba as the Inspector General of Police after the predecessor, Martins Okoth-Ochola, retired. 

Mr Byakagaba will need to restore public confidence that the police, which has been seen as being under military capture and has been accused by the Opposition of spending vast resources halting their constitutional right to assemble and hold rallies, will return to its noble duty.

The President is also expected to address the transnational threat of the Allied Democratic Front, a Ugandan rebel group holed up in the DRC jungles, and the Uganda People’s Defence Forces’ ability to build a cordon sanitaire to halt incursions from the neighbouring state and protect the lives and territorial integrity of the country.

National Debt

The government is also facing the threat of soaring debt, which now stands at Shs96.1 trillion and the risks associated with complacency are defined as the public debt safety trap, as well as growing government domestic borrowing, which crowds out the private sector.

This is primarily fuelled by the “pseudo” safety due to more fiscal headroom to borrow, especially for countries overly relying on Debt Sustainability Analysis results to assess debt policy sustainability and make borrowing decisions. Last month, the global credit rating agency, Moody, revised Uganda’s long-term creditworthiness from B2 to B3 because of fiscal challenges, external vulnerabilities, and economic concerns. This implies that the government will face challenges in accessing global credit markets and could borrow at high interest rates from lenders who want to mitigate the risk.

The address comes as the government continues to make pronouncements on austerity measures, including limiting travel abroad and workshops.  But the pronouncements are devoid of action as scores of government officials flood conferences abroad alongside a coterie of staff in a scheme to earn huge allowances.

What they expect the President to talk about...

Dr Maggie Kigozi, Crown Beverages board chair

Peace and security are absolutely essential for success of any business. Taxation should be fair such that everybody pays their taxes... we need to create jobs for the youth and improve education.

Rajesh Kumar, Chairman, Indian Business Forum.

We still have problems with the UNBS pre-inspection system. It is difficult to secure 500 different pre-inspection reports for a container with 500 different goods. We also have issues with URA domestic and customs taxes.

Florence NKata, Business woman.

He should be talking about creating climate-resilient agriculture, which should be properly budgeted for. Otherwise, climate change is real. We are seeing new pests destroying crops, wetlands have disappeared.

Remmie Male, Business Women.

He should talk about the investment opportunities available for women and the funding for businesses for women in the grassroots, who have no access to the money because of the paperwork required.

Japeth Kawanguzi, CEO, Innovations Village.

We see a lot of emphasis on skilling entrepreneurs, who are now equipped with the necessary knowledge but suffer underfunding. Government should create structures that support more production and value-addition.

Margaret Zziwa, former EALA MP.

The focus should be on sectors that build the economy, including manufacturing and industry. The youth should be skilled to run small and medium enterprises. Let’s create public-private partnerships to support sectors like education.

Manish Seyani, Contractor.

As a country, how are we managing our debt situation so that we are also able to allow the economy to grow? We need to build new infrastructure and create new opportunities to make us grow without relying on foreign aid.

Wilbroad Owor, ED UBA.

We were downgraded recently from a credit rating. We need to address the concerns that led to the downgrading because it will impact interest rate payments, meaning we should start prioritizing expenditure.

Richard Kemboi, Businessman.

He should emphasize free African continental trade. It is also high time that salaries of workers are discussed because people are working but instead becoming poorer. 

Tom Okelloto, Businessman.

We should pay attention to the quality of education our children are getting. He should also address the issue of corruption becaunow when people talk about corruption, others begin claiming that they are being persecuted.

Compiled by Stephen Otage