Why Mbabazi might stay in the queue a little longer

It is probable having been in the Front for National Salvation (Fronasa) and later working behind enemy lines; recruiting and smuggling National Resistance Army fighters and equipment, the former Security minister assumed then that he was more senior and in pole position to succeed Mr Museveni than the President’s former personal doctor. Mr Mbabazi’s one-liner seemed calculated to cast Besigye as impatient and disruptive but is also perhaps exposed Mbabazi’s own ambitions: A thirst to lead the country on a pre-arranged game plan.

Bush war comrades quietly speak of an understanding during the five-year NRA guerilla fighting that Museveni would serve as President for some time, and later surrender the country’s leadership to another compatriot. Because of this, former deputy premier Eriya Kategaya, owing to his historical role in the war, was considered de facto number two in NRM.

Kategaya, a childhood friend and confidante of the President, fell out with him over the lifting of presidential term limits, and was fired from Cabinet. He later returned to serve the NRM regime and died in March, this year. The writing has since been on the wall that loyalty to the ruling party or Museveni was not enough for one to succeed him. He reneged on a written promise in his 2001 election manifesto that he was offering himself for the “last time”.

In 2005, a constitutional amendment rushed through Parliament after ruling party MPs received a Shs5 million sweetener, scrapped the two five-year terms for any person to stand as president. This meant Museveni could now stand for president as many times as he wished. With the next scheduled general elections about 30 months away, NRM honchos are sure Mr Museveni is running again. “I have no doubt in my mind that Museveni is standing again in 2016 and is NRM’s strongest candidate,” said Mr David Mafabi, the president’s principal private secretary.

“President Museveni is best suited to complete the ongoing socio-economic transformation because he is very clear on what needs to be done; he is totally committed to the cause and understands how this is to be carried out together with accelerating and deepening regional integration.”

With MPs recently nudging Speaker Rebecca Kadaga to jump into the race for presidency, will Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi throw his hat into what is becoming a crowded political ring? Those close to the premier say he is a “smooth operator”, keeps his cards close to his chest and his calculations are hard to discern.

Like Mr Museveni, Mr Mbabazi hails from western Uganda. Therefore, his candidature might, through tribal lenses, reflect an extension of the dominance of government by people from the geographical region. Others are likely to entertain it as an option less disruptive. However, the premier’s electoral fortunes are more likely to be tethered to how he becomes a candidate. Multiple sources this newspaper spoke to, most of them persons close to the power centre, declined to be identified in this article to avoid straining their relations with either Mbabazi or Museveni.

One official said it would be “unwise” for the prime minister to attempt to mount a challenge to the President - his “political father, mentor and protector”. According to another, Mr Mbabazi would have a chance only if Museveni opted out, and if both the president and NRM endorsed him as the party’s official flag bearer.

Why? That way, the State machinery and the president’s individual political capital would be deployed in his favour unlike if he were to go it alone, building own structures and mobilising resources necessary to mount a bid in Uganda’s heavily-monetised politics.

Mbabazi has not publicly declared interest to be president, and NRM party spokesperson and Gender minister Karooro Okurut told the Daily Monitor that a conversation on the matter would be “speculative”. “When it comes to campaign time, the NRM party will pick its candidate through a democratic process,” she said, “Whoever carries the day becomes our presidential flag bearer.”

The intrigue and bickering that accompanied NRM primaries during the last elections – much of it blamed on Mr Mbabazi as the secretary general - left the party naked and its officials disgraced. It also provided evidence that a level playing field was improbable in internal processes to choose NRM candidates in much the same way as the national ballot.

Simultaneously holding the powerful positions of NRM secretary-general and prime minister gives Mr Mbabazi an edge over rivals. Yet it is the concurrent holding of these jobs that have shown firsthand that his loyalty to NRM and the President have a ceiling.

The NRM delegates’ conference in 2010 resolved that the party’s secretary-general becomes a full-time job and whoever is elected to the post should not hold another demanding government job so that they can have a free hand to build the party and mobilise members.

But the party has no resources of its own to count, meaning its officials are deemed to depend on State benefaction.
Mr Mbabazi beat former VP Gilbert Bukenya and Justice Minister Kahinda Otafiire for the SG job at Namboole in an election which the losers claimed had been fixed by Mbabazi and his cronies by manipulating the party register.
Still, Mr Museveni appointed him prime minister and promised a subsequent NRM Caucus sitting at State House Entebbe that he would relinquish the SG job.

But when the time for him to abdicate the portfolio came last year, President Museveni is reported to have been taken aback when Mr Mbabazi shifted goalposts, with majority of the delegates supporting him. Other delegates openly questioned why Museveni himself occupies the position of party chairman and President without anyone asking him to leave either.

A surprised Museveni quickly referred the matter to the national delegates’ conference earlier planned for this year, but one which, according to insiders, has been delayed due to lack of finances and reports of clandestine mobilisation in the countryside to oust the President as party chairman.

Giving up SG position
Mr Mbabazi had reportedly told confidantes he was initially willing but later changed his mind not to give up the SG job because he realised he was not being pushed out genuinely over performance concerns which some detractors he believed, employed as a ruse to settle personal scores.

This newspaper understands that there was an oversight and the NRM party constitution was not amended to accommodate the delegates’ 2010 resolution creating SG as a full-time position, rendering compliance with the resolution a moral rather than legal imperative.

Some party idealogues are now toying with amendments to the NRM constitution which would enable either the chairman or central executive committee to appoint a technocrat as SG to avoid a clash of egos and rivalry as has become apparent under the present arrangement where both derive power from voters.

A senior State House official told this newspaper that Mr Mbabazi has no chance to become president, unless he manoeuvres through means other than election. First, age is increasingly not on his side. The premier will be 67 when Ugandans are expected to go to the polls in early 2016. The country’s Constitution, unless amended, provides 75 years as the maximum age for a presidential contender. If Mr Mbabazi were to hold onto the 2021 ballot timetable to vie, he would be 72 years-old, and perhaps unappealing to a predominantly youthful voting population.

Things are further complicated by the talk that the Commander of the Special Forces, Brig Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the President’s son, may be inserted into the proverbial queue. Individuals within and outside government who favour a Mbabazi presidency observe that he is a workaholic, an NRM loyalist – a point he underlined during his campaign for the SG post – a teetotaler. “Amama has been in the kitchen cooking for NRM; he may not serve or present the food but knows what has been cooked,” an official who has worked with Mr Mbabazi in several capacities, said.

Mr Mbabazi has served in the crucial ministries of Defence, Foreign Affairs, Security and now Prime Minister. The experience and contacts gained therefrom cannot be overlooked. He is the President’s points-man on Buganda issues, has drafted both NRM election manifestos and some of Mr Museveni’s speeches. He also enjoys the rare privilege of riding in the presidential jet on sensitive diplomatic, regional and international security assignments.

Mr Mbabazi led talks when judges protested the military assault on the High Court in Kampala, he flew to sweet-talk Khartoum officials when LRA peace talks got underway in Juba, he was at hand in Kinshasa and across the region as UPDF launched military strikes in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, he chaired the special cabinet sub-committee on Kenya’s post-election violence, and, quite recently, led the ministerial team that drafted Uganda’s response rebutting UN allegation of the country’s support to M23 rebels.

In return, the President has shielded him whenever in trouble. Whether it was the disputed Temangalo land sale, inflated costs of the Chogm security gadgets or the alleged Shs50 billion suspected cash theft by OPM staff, the President has defended the PM as a clean man and being targeted for political reasons.

Many wonder what chemistry binds the two.
A decorated NRA war hero told the Daily Monitor on condition of anonymity that even in the Bush, when Mbabazi’s performance in the external wing was suspect, Mr Museveni defended him. According to this war hero, it is because of this cover that Mr Mbabazi has become the President’s “errand boy”. But Mr Mafabi holds: “I think the thing that binds Amama Mbabazi and President Museveni is ideology; they have shared vision for Uganda and Africa.” Not all has been flawless between the two. Several local media reports have pointed to a fall-out between these principals.

During the State-of-the-Nation address in June, President Museveni skipped a hand-shake with Mbabazi and in another televised address, never acknowledged his presence as required by protocol. Yet there is much that unites them. Both were militant Marxists, nationalists, pan-Africanists in their early years. They have now turned capitalists, probably taking the cue from Communist China’s evolution into a modern day capitalist State.

It is instructive that, again, the premier continues to be in the centre of Uganda’s dealings with China.
In a way, Mr Mbabazi and Mr Museveni’s fate seems inextricably linked. With Mr Museveni unlikely to leave power in 2016, Mr Mbabazi, who was not available to be interviewed for this article, may well be fated to stand in the queue a little longer.

Who is Amama Mbabazi?

The Prime Minister’s undoing, according to some associates, is that he has not lived an ordinary life for decades and appears detached from the common man. Opponents have in the past accused him of being arrogant, a master at intrigue and unwilling to work with individuals not loyal to him. But Mbabazi has laughed this off as being motivated by malice.

It is characteristic of him not to receive or return telephone calls and text messages, including from media houses. Only recently did he begin granting interviews to journalists or appearing on talk shows.
In Parliament, the prime minister comes across as dismissive of other people’s opinion whenever contributing as the Leader of Government Business.

There, however, is a lighter side to Mbabazi. He cracks jokes and laughs heartily in conversations with friends. In fact, he even attends baptism parties of close friends. The premier comes out as humane on another front: often seeking to find out the welfare of one’s family whenever he calls instead of ordering subordinates on the phone. And he pays tuition for students, assists or connects the needy for help or scholarship, which is how lawyer Saverino Twinobusingye, whom court recently awarded Shs12.9 billion in a case in defence of Mbabazi and co-accused ministers, was able to study.

Mr Mbabazi’s wife, Jacqueline, is said to be his behind-the-scenes political heart and lever. The premier is the most avid social media user among Museveni’s Cabinet, connecting and engaging with the tech-savvy youth on Twitter.

PARLIAMENT WATCH

New competition awaits incumbents

Deputy Speaker Jacob Oulanyah faces a daunting task if he is to retain his seat in the 10th Parliament. Politically bruised on account of his contentious decisions in the House, Mr Oulanyah (NRM) faces a belligerent rival in Odonga Otto (FDC).

Mr Otto represents Aruu County in the 9th Parliament but has announced that in 2016, he will be crossing to Omoro County to “uproot Mr Oulanyah” whom he has labelled “a disgrace to the Acholi people.” Mr Otto, one of the outspoken legislators, accuses Oulanyah of midwifing over unpopular government policies and chairing Parliament with partisan lenses. Mr Otto cites the drama surrounding the Public Order Management Bill, Oil Bills; supplementary budgets; his role in the disputed approval of State Minister for Lands, Aida Nantaba and Internal Affairs Minister, Aronda Nyakairima.

Jinja Municipality recentlywitnessed a rigorous by-election where current MP, Paul Mwiru (below) of the FDC, trounced NRM’s Igeme Nabeta. The constituency is hotly-contested between NRM and FDC, something which saw the two parties’ heavyweights camping in the area for two months combing for support in the by-elections. In the last election, the contest was too stiff that the winner, Igeme Nabeta got 8,203 votes and Mr Mwiru, who was the first runner-up then, got 7,060 votes. Mwiru petitioned court citing election malpractices and was later voted overwhelmingly. Mr Nabeta has promised to return and to get back “his” constituency. Other expected contestants are: Mufumbiro Waiswa (DP), Majid Batambuze (NRM) and Osinde Oyo (UPC).

Kabale Municipality has always been an NRM stronghold although opposition – particularly FDC - has, since the 2001 elections, made gradual inroads. In the 2011 polls, independent Andrew Aja Baryayanga (below) scooped the seat after garnering 7,868 against former tourism Minister Serapio Rukundo’s 5,222 votes. Makerere’s Prof Augustus Nuwagaba will be the new entrant in the ring come 2016. He seems to have already launched campaigns in earnest, judging from the meetings he has been holding with youth and women groups.
“Now that it is a call from voters, I am ready to serve them if they continue demanding for my service,” Prof Nuwagaba, who will most likely vie on NRM ticket says. Mr Baryayanga says his performance will determine whether he comes back in 2016 or not.

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