US elections and Africa’s fate: Here is what lies ahead

As the United States goes to the polls on November 5, the biggest question on Africans’ minds could be whether there will be a major shift in policies on Africa irrespective of who occupies the White House after Joe Biden.

US, regardless of who is in power, has been a key cog in African countries’ policies regarding trade, climate financing, public health funding, and peacemaking, especially in the Horn of Africa, the Great Lakes and the Sahel regions. New issues have also emerged including immigration, climate change financing and specific rights issues related to the LGBTQ+ community.

Trade experts say Africa is not generally high up the priority list for the US foreign policy priorities and hence there might be little shift irrespective of who wins. Donald Trump who is attempting for second term after he was defeated by Biden in 2020 never visited Africa. Biden is visiting Angola in December, long after the world would have known the winner of the elections next week.

Historically, two-term presidents have waited until their second term to establish their legacies on the continent, and many one-term presidents have neglected it altogether. Biden has said he will come to discuss trade, infrastructure and democracy. But he will not make any commitments over that.

Regardless of who wins, analysts believe the battle against China for critical minerals in Africa will be the primary driver of both parties’ policies toward Africa.

“The US is very focused on this election and I can tell you it is basically a week from today. So in Kenya on Wednesday morning, we will have an idea of what has happened,” said Meg Whitman, US ambassador to Kenya.

This year’s polls have renewed interest in Africa as bitter rivalry between Vice-President Kamala Harris (Democratic Party) and former President Donald Trump (Republican Party) threatens to spill over globally.

Trade, climate change, insecurity, food security, terrorism threats, health, and conflict in the Horn of Africa, are key concerns on the continent.

Ms Whitman says the policies on the continent as well as in Kenya will not change much irrespective of who takes over after Biden.

“As you know it is a very close election. What I will say, and I have been asked this question a lot of times, will it change the relationship with (Kenya) whoever wins? And the answer to that, I believe, is NO,” said Whitman.

“We have had many presidents in the 60 years of our relationship and this is the strongest relationship that America has on the continent and maybe even in the world. So I can assure you that whoever is elected will continue to work with Kenya much as we have.”

Washington is expected to remain focused on balancing economic interests and security concerns, as both Democrats and Republicans acknowledge Africa's strategic importance in the shifting geopolitical landscape.

However, the parties’ differing approaches may influence how US policy is perceived by African and European partners.

Olabisi D. Akinkugbe, an expert in international trade and investment Law, and associate Professor of the Schulich School of Law at Dalhousie University, Canada, observes that the future of the US trade with Africa will depend on who wins.

“Assuming its Vice President Kamala Harris one would say it would be a continuation of ‘Biden-economics”, the approach to international trade negotiations of the bilateral agreements as well as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) in particular will not change significantly from what we have seen of her,” Prof Olabisi told The EastAfrican.

“There is every reason to be skeptical about the second administration of Trump. The one list of the things he wished he did in his first term that could not be achieved could as well come back. Trump has not been unclear about the fact that what he wants to do is to globalize American interests.”

Prof Olabisi, also the Purdy Crawford Chair in Business Law, observes that there is every reason to be skeptical about the second administration of Trump.

“That means that in the context of the African state, Agoa and overall African-US relationships, leaders would have to be very strong at the state level, regional and international levels about protecting the social-economic and sustainable environmental interests in those negotiations,” said Prof Olabisi.

Trump had begun some trade negotiation with Kenya, seeking to use it as an example for the continent to entice it for bilateral trade agreements. Biden stalled that and began his own. The talks over that haven’t concluded and are unlikely to end before a new administration comes in. If Trump, the talks could be stalled and he restarts his.

Climate factor

Trump also withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement, a climate deal which set targets for mitigating global warming and its impact. Biden rejoined it.

In March, the Biden administration announced more than $7 billion in private sector finance for climate impact and clean energy projects across Africa, while Trump has previously disparaged clean energy.

It’s expected that Harris would continue the Biden policy, supporting clean energy producers in parts of Africa such as Kenya and the wider region.

Under the Trump administration, American right-wing activists who have stepped up campaigns across African nations promoting anti-abortion and anti-LGBTQ ideologies are likely to pardon countries like Uganda who were suspended from Agoa over their internal laws on LGBTQ.

If his first term in 2016 is to go by, it was observed that Trump made it clear what trade deals he wanted. Another term, Trump is likely to implement his policies which are unlikely to take care of African interests.

First implemented in 2000, Agoa provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the US market for over 1,800 products, in addition to the more than 5,000 products that are eligible for duty-free access under the Generalised System of Preferences program.

President Joe Biden’s administration has expressed support for renewing AGOA before it expires, and bipartisan legislation has been under consideration in Congress that would extend the act.

It is widely expected that a Harris win would signal the continuation of Biden’s plans to have Agoa renewed.

"For more than two decades, the bipartisan Agoa has formed the bedrock of America's economic partnership with African nations," said Biden in a statement before the 21st Agoa Forum, held July 24-26 in Washington, DC.

"I call on Congress to quickly reauthorize and modernise this landmark Act."

US President Joe Biden’s canceled trip to Angola this month would have marked his first visit to Africa while in office.

Biden has said that he will visit Angola in December, during his final months as president.

However, Vice President Kamala Harris—the Democratic nominee—has visited the continent, and she chose democracies.

She visited Ghana, Zambia, and Tanzania.

Harris is expected to largely continue Biden’s African policy as defined in the US Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa, launched in 2022.

In December 2022, the US government signed a memorandum of understanding to support the African Continental Free Trade Area, and in March,2023, Washington launched an initiative to support Africa’s creative industry amid a global surge in popularity for contemporary African pop music.

Harris and Trump would continue Washington’s policies that seek to compete with Beijing on trade in Africa but face an uphill battle in wrangling lost influence back from the Middle East, Turkey, and China.