Mr Nicholas Sengoba
President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni made 80 on September 15. This is the day he chose as his birthday, because he does not know the exact day and year he was born. It is no mean feat for a man who has been in the business of war and subterfuge for a bigger part of his life.
He credits his relative longevity to three things. Looking after his health and not squandering it by taking alcohol, avoiding smoking and ‘umalaya’(skirt chasing.) Out of these 80 years, Museveni has spent 38 uninterrupted years as president of Uganda; a country that is 62 years old since independence in 1962.
This is monumental, considering that the seven presidents before Museveni; between 1962 to 1986, ruled Uganda for a combined total of 24 years. It is not an accident.When Museveni landed in Kampala in 1986 it was assumed that he was a Marxist who had come to impose the State on the economy. Ironically, while the political educators at the cadre training centre in Kyankwanzi were waxing lyrical against imperialism, bourgeoisie comprador and spewing all the Marxist jargon, Museveni had moved on.
He opened up to capitalism and was deeply ensconced with what former Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere sarcastically called the International Ministry of Finance (IMF) and the World Bank. The economy was liberalised, there were currency reforms, privatisation, structural adjustments and cost-sharing of social services. This is very significant and unlike the past leaders like Milton Obote and Idi Amin who had a Uganda for Ugandans populist economic policy. The Nakivubo Declaration, the Common Man’s Charter plus the move to the left for the former, and the Economic War of 1972 for the latter, all had components of nationalisation and ‘communism.’
These did not please the viceroys of global capitalism and brought pressure to bear on Uganda. The governments were greatly undermined politically and economically and eventually overthrown. Museveni’s move endeared him to the vital Western constituency as part of the ‘New breed’ of African leaders who were lavished with foreign aid and market access. This, especially in the 10 years between 1986 and 1996, boosted the economy and his standing, especially with Ugandans in the south who were emerging from decades of turmoil. Museveni became their blue-eyed boy and influential point man in the volatile Great Lakes region. Uganda occasionally provides military assistance to cool down hot spots which secures the investment of international capital in the debt-ridden region.
The ‘generous refugee policy’ which accommodates those fleeing wars in the DR Congo helps free rich mineral provinces and those illicitly benefiting from blood minerals. Thanks to Uganda they may operate in peace without the Congolese regrouping and fighting ‘disruptive’ wars against investors, like the Nigerian Ogoni people did under Ken Sarowiwa against Shell Oil. Museveni’s shortcomings including suppressing the Opposition, human rights abuses, and rampant corruption, were brushed aside as ‘the challenges expected of a country rising from the ashes.’
This gave him a blank cheque to entrench and strengthen himself and his movement system while co-opting and undermining the Opposition. The Opposition has never recovered. This has left Museveni and his acolytes who are staffed in most civil positions in pole position, politically, socially and economically to dominate Uganda to date. The economic policies would later put foreign capital and investors at the heart of the economy; pushing the locals to the periphery in terms of ownership and profiting from the economy. Corruption created a moneyed ruling and middle class. It is in their interest to keep Museveni in power to maintain the status quo. Corruption sucked the state plus the social safety net to the bone. Having to pay for school tuition and hospital bills plus foot the garage bills caused by bad roads has stressed and weakened the citizens further.
It has put them at the mercy of the NRM leadership which has replaced the state. One has to either lie low or be subservient to NRM to access most of their rights to the Museveni run and dominated state. That power relation is very significant for humiliating and controlling especially the poor. In any polity, parties are as strong as the members they represent. Local opposition which financed Museveni in Luweero is no more.
Any Opposition currently is incapable of funding any meaningful contest against Museveni and NRM which is backed by the national treasury, donor funds, and the sponsorship of investors.Museveni and company can determine how and who will oppose them. They buy off the Opposition and split them using money and the privilege of well-paying government positions. Most political Opposition parties are in turmoil fighting for their own existence amidst accusations of harbouring moles and money from Museveni.
The contest for power is further simplified for Museveni by having a firmer grip on the instruments of coercion. The command and control of the army which was historically in the hands of ethnic groups in Northern Uganda has moved ‘closer home’ to Western Uganda with the CDF Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba being the son of the president. Political contests are conveniently converted into military challenges.
That is how groups like the Peoples Redemption Army (PRA) came up and hundreds of supporters of former presidential candidate Kizza Besigye were charged and remanded for long periods for treason and terrorism. His brother, Joseph Musazizi Kifefe, died allegedly as a consequence of this detention.The Military Court Marshal is now the recourse for stubborn members of the Opposition NUP party of Mr Robert Kyagulanyi, a.k.a. Bobi Wine, for their political defiance. Many, as was the case with PRA, are supposedly released after ‘confessing’ and promising to reform.
Elsewhere Museveni has patronised religious leaders who are crucial in swaying opinion of a sizable constituency. Museveni personally finances their personal and institutional pastoral activities and many have preached to the flock that he is the God-chosen one. In the past Idi Amin fell out with the Church of Uganda Archbishop, Janani Luwum, leading to his death. Same applied to Emmanual Cardinal Nsubuga of the Roman Catholic Church and Milton Obote.Museveni may celebrate more birthdays at the helm because corruption has brought the State almost to a halt. It is now State affiliated individuals with money that call most of the shots.
As Museveni grows older and his energy is diminished by nature, there will be an increase in many of them forming cliques, undermining and focusing on fighting each other in a bid to position themselves ostensibly to replace him. That will only weaken them further giving Museveni a new lease of life to continue ruling the roost. This will be the most ironic happening for a man who has been in power for 4 decades and run out of promises and times to reinvent himself.
Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political and social issues.
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