Mr Nicholas Sengoba
In the last offering here, it was argued that there seemed to be a dark cloud of uncertainty in the air, that was forcing some in the higher echelons of power to vote with their feet.
A relatively young reader asked me with unmistakable glee whether the NRM government of President Museveni was ‘finally’collapsing. It is worrying that perhaps out of frustration, especially after the last election, many young people born after 1986 wish for an abrupt and violent ending of the current regime-code named the struggle. they assume such an occurrence would be an isolated matter that would happen in a vacuum leaving them unscathed. it is not usually the case. many who have wished for this route in the past did not live to see its fruits. yet those they wished hell fire, fled or turned their coats and witnessed many more sunrises.
That aside, for now, one can safely argue that Uganda is apparently not yet in that very worrying realm that gives everyone sleepless days and nights on end; preoccupied with anxiety and trepidation about violent change. but there are a few things that give one a sense of déjà vu.
The older folks who endured through the regimes of presidents; Ssekabaka Edward Muteesa ii (1962-66,) Milton Obote (1966- 71 and 198085,) idi amin dada (1971-79,) Yusuf Lule (April 13– June 20. 1979), Godfrey Lukongwa Binaisa (1979 -1980,) and gen Tito Okello Lutwa (1985 – 1986) have painfully witnessed governments crumbling in this town usually it is not obvious and many times the fall of what seems like a robust government catches many by surprise but there are often tell-tale signs.
Besides the one where people either send part of their families to safe havens or flee themselves, there is the conduct of the head of state. they feel threatened and vulnerable. They become more vocal about their capabilities and invincibility; citing previous victories. their visibility even at obscure events like birthday parties and thanksgiving ceremonies where their ego are nursed by all manner of self-seekers who assure them that they are still sturdy and capable.
They hold state of the nation addresses more often where the media is compelled to put other programming on halt. In that way they keep themselves in the faces of the people whom they suspect are tired of them after many years in power. The head of State increasingly becomes intolerant and jittery especially in the face of dissent, which is met with viciousness and high handedness. They grumble endlessly about ‘foreign interests’ undermining their governments by funding local misguided elements.
They become very suspicious of everybody and retreat into the family or a narrow, trusted ethnic space. There are endless reshuffles using punishment and reward for loyalty as opposed to competence, to try and get the right mix.
Vital positions of State are put in the hands of family members or relatives. They create informal offices that run parallel to and end up undermining reorganised State institutions. They become the State. These are stuffed with sycophants and other hands for rent for the cause of perpetuating the government in power.
Without certainty in structures of governance they end up fighting. The squabbling and jostling for favours, power and positions further weakens the State and the government. These often untouchable characters with a misguided sense of entitlement in the sea of impunity, fuel endemic corruption and abuse of office.
There is grand theft of public resources and national assets. The scale of the theft is like they know they are nearing the final whistle. While individuals associated with the rulers grow exponentially rich, the government runs out of money to pay for basic responsibilities like utility bills and salaries of its workers and almost everything regarding service delivery comes to a halt.
The economy collapses despite the rosy figures which are spewed out more often creating an impression of spectacular growth and job availability. There is massive unemployment leading to young people fleeing the country for blue collar work or engaging in criminality to survive. Idleness and bitterness lead to rumour mongering about the impending fall of the government. The latter increasingly borrows immensely for things as mundane as wages of public servants swelling national debt. This leads to increased taxation while debt repayment decreases social service provision.
A general failing in leadership follows as regimes concentrate on strengthening their position and perpetuating themselves in power. They lose focus and attention to detail. Systems, social services and infrastructure deteriorate. That is how you end up with disasters like Kiteezi, flooding and endless road and water accidents. Religious, traditional, sports and other institutions that provide social leadership and cohesion suffer similarly with government meddling.
There is a worsening insecurity. Thieves and other criminals take over the streets and suburbs. The police and law enforcement are suspected to be complicit and are incapable of solving the problem of crime, leaving people to their own vices. The military leaves the barracks and moves into public spaces. They noticeably run government projects and engage in policing, guard and escort duties plus a plethora of civil matters.
Here they are in close contact with the money economy and benefit from corruption. Every attempt is made to shield them from scrutiny as a way of appeasing them. Being preoccupied with money making banishes temptations of subterfuge.
That is why there is opposition in subjecting them to wealth declaration and lifestyle audits.
On the foreign front, countries perhaps smelling blood and also for their selfish, opportunistic reasons start endlessly warning their citizens about the ‘dire’ security situation of the country because of governance failures. They issue travel advisories
and the like. Some diplomats and foreign service officers noticing the weakness of the country will go rogue. Uganda has a history of ambassadors selling embassy property and running into exile when they notice weakness in the government at home.
They may also engage in shady business deals and other activities that are incompatible with their status as foreign envoys. It happens when they smell that the governments are preoccupied with survival and have weakened to supervise them. Notably there is an increase in enactment of laws to legalise all that the government desires to strengthen itself in power and weaken its opponents. Some laws are intended to appease populist sentiments for patronage.
Meanwhile the opposition becomes extremely jittery. Many individuals are bought off or given juicy jobs that some become the leading critics of Opposition politics.
There is an increase in formation and realignment among those who oppose the government.
Like it happened in 1979 during the Moshi Conference in Tanzania as the war that toppled Idi Amin progressed, many position themselves to get a share of the spoils in case the government collapses like they think it is inevitable.
Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political and social issues. x:@nsengoba
