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2026: Big winners, losers after Museveni wins poll
Author: Okodan Akwap. PHOTO/FILE.
What you need to know:
- “Another big winner will be corruption. This vice may reach levels never seen before in Uganda.
With President Museveni on the ballot in 2026, chances are good that NRM, the party that has ruled Uganda since 1986, will retain power for another five years. But who will be the real big winners and losers of that victory?
Among the notable big winners will be the army, which some see as an extension of Mr Museveni. It’s highly likely that Ugandans will come to realise that they are closer to the physical presence of Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) soldiers than ever before.
The recent decision by the Uganda Police Force to station officers at the sub-counties may provide a framework for UPDF to deploy soldiers, in the guise of police officers, in every sub-county.
In that case, even the slightest disturbance to peace and security, such as students making noise over unpalatable cooked beans, will likely attract the attention of the army.
Aged over 80, the President may eventually heed the advice of his doctors to slow down a bit. He may even consider taking some time off work, perhaps going out of Uganda.
This means that he could be away for longer periods than he has done before. He will then need people he can trust to mind the shop while he’s away. Forget what the Constitution says; the UPDF will be handier.
Another big winner will be corruption. This vice may reach levels never seen before in Uganda. The other day, Ms Beti Kamya, the Inspector General of Government, cited a report that shows Uganda loses a minimum of Shs9 trillion to overt corruption, which is done or shown openly. Factor in covert corruption (done secretly) and the picture gets scarier.
This is likely to happen if the thieves target the oil, which is expected to be flowing by 2026. This is most likely where the biggest effects of covert corruption will be felt. Apart from raiding oil revenue coffers, organised criminals may, for instance, construct illegal pipelines taking oil to the jungles of DR Congo to be processed in illegal refineries. Uganda may become like Nigeria, which reportedly loses up to $3 billion (about Shs11 trillion) annually to oil thefts.
Sycophants, opportunists, praise singers, hangers-on and Dr Samuel Oledo type of kneelers may also be big winners as patronage politicking commences shortly after results of the 2026 poll are announced.
Cash will be dished out to two-faced people as NRM plots to win the 2031 election that should take it to 2036 when it’s likely to celebrate its golden jubilee in power.
What this means is that institutions that are supposed to be the vehicles for service delivery may be among the big losers after the 2026 poll. Institutional inertia now noticeable in the key sectors of education, health and agriculture may remain largely unaddressed.
Recent public pronouncements suggest that the government is reviewing the education policy framework and talking about plans for modernising agriculture. But these sectors call for heavy financial investment in human capital and technological development. Words alone won’t work.
While there’s hope for relief from the oil and gas sector, there are also deep-seated concerns. For instance, in a December 6 article titled, ‘Govt must strive to build sustainable oil & gas sector,’ Brian Lutaaya and Eric Wamala, who are knowledgeable about these things, warned: “Without transparent, independent and strong institutions, Uganda’s oil and gas sector is doomed to fail.”
Similarly, a 2019 article by Jose Antonio Ocampo and Stephany Griffith-Jones, painted a dim picture about the private sector in developing countries such as Uganda.
Their point is that the private sector in these countries often fails to provide enough financing for small and medium enterprises that are needed to make economies more dynamic, inclusive, and sustainable.
Government must check its appetite for domestic borrowing. If not, private sector players will be among the big losers after the 2026 poll as their access to affordable credit will remain limited.
Lastly, the youth may be the biggest losers after the next election. They may wake up to the sad reality that the illusion of a generational revolution led by Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba is just that – an illusion.
Mr Akwap (PhD) is an associate consultant at Uganda Management Institute.
