Can Bobi replicate Senegal’s triumph when Muhoozi is eyeing his dad’s job?

The election that brought Mr Faye to power followed deadly protests in Senegal, where Macky Sall, the outgoing president, tried but failed to extend his rule beyond the constitutional two five-year terms. Mr Faye and his ally, Ousmane Sonko, had been jailed over “corrupting the youth” and were freed 10 days before the vote.

They say the charges against them were politically motivated, something that Opposition politicians in places such as Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe know only too well. Mr Sall had also tried to delay the election for 10 months, a move he said was backed by parliament — but the Constitutional Council overruled his decision.

The news from Senegal is heartening for Bobi Wine. It gives him hope. Last Tuesday, he posted on Facebook congratulating Mr Faye upon his victory. But Bobi Wine’s chances of replicating Senegal’s presidential triumph are still slim.

Uganda and Senegal are different. Senegal has never had a coup and has had three peaceful transfers of power. Uganda has had zero. There is no evidence in Senegal to suggest that the army is as deeply involved in politics as the UPDF. The outgoing president did not have as much control over the country’s political space as Mr Museveni seems to have.

And Mr Museveni would surely love to see someone close to him become Uganda’s next president. Last Tuesday, Daily Monitor, quoting the Forum for Democratic Change, reported that the Muhoozi presidency was getting closer following recent changes in the army and the Cabinet.

The President appointed his son, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, head of the UPDF and two individuals — Balaam Barugahara and Lillian Aber — who are key figures in the General’s Patriotic League of Uganda Cabinet ministers. Gen Muhoozi has been traversing the country introducing himself to Ugandans as a potential leader.

No serving top UPDF commander has ever done what Gen Muhoozi is doing, and it is all too easy to see that he is motivated by political ambitions — something he has made known on social media.

Gen Muhoozi has the constitutional right to run for president. But if Bobi Wine is going to compete with him, he will find it hard to win. Not that the General is hugely popular. Far from it. It is just that the system his father has built and capitalised on to rule Uganda for nearly 40 years favours him.

In a free and fair election — where the Electoral Commission is independent, where security forces do not interfere with voting, where there is a cap on spending during campaigns, where voters/supporters are not persecuted, where electoral laws are fair — Gen Muhoozi would need a miracle to beat Bobi Wine.

The real problem for Bobi Wine is that he cannot win and get declared winner while current leaders are sitting back and relaxing as he embarks on the job of leading Uganda. It is inconceivable. Imagine the Special Forces Command going about its business unbothered when Bobi Wine is in the State House!

We have held many elections and claim to be a democracy. But the truth is: We are not.

Mr Musaazi Namiti is a journalist and former
Al Jazeera digital editor in charge of the Africa desk
[email protected]    @kazbuk