Confidence will win our future

The American writer and humourist Mark Twain once said all one needs to succeed in this world is ignorance and confidence. His words were forerunners to running commentaries to come. Twain died in 1910, but the Dunning–Kruger effect was a phenomenon first described in 1999. It basically agreed with Twain. 

To be sure, the Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias which occurs when a person’s lack of knowledge and skill in a certain area causes them to overestimate their competence. By contrast, a person who has vast knowledge and skill in a certain area underestimates their own competence. In Uganda, our politics are being governed by this effect. That is why those who are intelligent enough to contribute meaningfully to our politics are full of doubts.

 And those who have cavities where their thinking caps should belong are “in charge”, as they like to boast. Make no mistake; confidence and self-belief are valuable political resources. They are the characteristics which shape political activity, guiding our participation in civic life. Our activity, in turn, shapes our self-confidence in the way it impacts our sense of service and duty. 

It is a virtuous cycle, which pedals a vicious reshaping of itself when the most competent citizens underestimate their abilities to the extent that they disembarrass themselves from their civic duties. This elitist detachment is on account of civic life being dumbed down by overconfident dolts. Regrettably, when confidence in our politics is left to incompetents; bigotry flourishes. Such political confidence then leads to hostilities between those who hold opposing political views. This affective polarisation (or the extent to which the electorate "dislikes" or "distrusts" those from other parties) leads to cosmetic disagreement instead of substantial contestation. Furthermore, as the elite members of society disengage in politics, they feel disempowered and, thanks to their disengagement, are inevitably disenfranchised. Since they did not vote, their votes are not counted and so their vote does not count. 

Subsequently, they express negative sentiments about the political dispensation. Feeling excluded by the political process holding sway, they attempt to delegitimise it by their eschewal of it. However, they delegitimise change instead. That’s because those political agents canvassing for change are equally objects of their elitist mistrust. Left in the arena, we have a section of citizens confident in their politics. But this confidence is circumscribed by ignorance and its base glamorisation. This is partly because those knowledgeable enough to call them out are left brooding on the sidelines. 

This self-confidence, among anti-intellectual types, contributes to adversarial politics and partisan bigotry. Intolerance to those who do not share their partisan loyalties then grows. It then mutates, repeatedly, into a shifty regionalism which promotes identity politics over a less dislocated polity. All told, confidence or the lack thereof is what adversely affects our politics. For us to change this reality, we must think of how the confidence of the elite can be restored. 

This will not be enabled by the government, which has a stake in a less questioning populace. After all, those who question are likely the ones to interrogate slogans for any signs of policy and refuse to be led blindly by our one-eyed political kings. So the elite must take the first step. They must be the change they want to see in our politics. 

Not by their indifference, but their willingness to actively confront the inadequacies in our politics and politicians. Mark Twain might have been right, but only for the wrong. We must have either ignorance or progress and never the twain shall meet, as the phrase goes.

Mr Matogo is a professional copywriter
[email protected]