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Coronavirus fight back might require going for broke, but is govt ready?
What you need to know:
- Fear of the unknown. Suppose at some point, we have to stay at home as a control measure, for say a month, or two or even three? You might have seen (or heard) that there is a scramble for toilet paper in the West. It didn’t make sense at first, until someone explained how fear of the unknown works.
Assuming you had a medical emergency that required an express payment of Shs15 million. Would you actually raise the money or rest in peace? Whenever I ask this question, it hits hard, how most of us are one act of God away from meeting Him.
As things stand, all Uganda’s neighbours have confirmed cases of Covid-19, so we can assume that for Uganda, it might be a matter of when and not if. The Health ministry is putting up a fight like no other, and all the frontline personnel must be lauded for the leadership and clarity of mission.
For now, the message is to practice social distancing and wash our hands, even as the rest of the world imposes lockdowns and closing off their borders. That we are simply being asked to wash our hands and keep our distance for now, is a good sign. We can only hope that it stays that way or we’ll be in big trouble.
The worry for everyone though should be that our national handwashing average is reported to be an embarrassing 36 per cent. Basically, only four out of every 10 Ugandans are washing their hands. Poor handwashing habits, in a country where household access to piped water is a preserve of only 8 per cent, is where everyone’s focus should be.
Getting that number up – with hand sanitiser and all manner of soap – will be the real miracle, and should be the gospel that every politician is vending. Participate, Becky, and drop that shady spray by a “young man from Busoga, which instantly kills the coronavirus and bacteria.”
For whatever reason, we still don’t have a confirmed case, but that has not insulated the economy. Business leaders in tourism are already reporting unprecedented losses, and considering laying off workers. Global oil prices, imports, manufacturing, trade and travel, are being disrupted. How long before this economic misery is spread around, till the average Joe’s doorstep? Most importantly, how long can we hold out, and what happens if we have to effect a lockdown?
Suppose at some point, we have to stay at home as a control measure, for say a month, or two or even three? You might have seen (or heard) that there is a scramble for toilet paper in the West. It didn’t make sense at first, until someone explained how fear of the unknown works. Think of as a bank run. Basically, customers worry that the bank is folding, and start withdrawing their deposits en masse. The net effect is that the bank runs out of money and actually closes.
That is exactly what happened. One muzungu feared that the Covid-19-enforced lockdown would likely last forever and couldn’t imagine life using newspapers, then leaves, and eventually ‘riding a bike’. So they went on a toilet paper buying spree, forcing everyone else to join in, out of fear.
Wazungus have the advantage and privilege of strong social security safety nets, so they can afford bulk shopping and stock-ups, even for an imaginary apocalypse. Here, where the net is leaking in the places it exists, toilet paper is paraphernalia for party décor.
First, you have thousands of young people who live hand-to-mouth and can’t afford to stock up on food or basic necessities – because the economy just isn’t designed for them like that. They work in the informal sector, in Kikuubo, as boda boda riders and taxi touts, or live off the occasional gig in disguised unemployment, or in the startup ecosystem.
They aren’t paid enough, to even contemplate a month, let alone a week without whatever little income. They have no savings or credit worthiness to fall back on, and yet are also probably the lifeline for a couple of others, – including their own children.
It is these who are likely to be the first casualties of any economic disruption. Mostly, it is they who will likely not observe a quarantine or lockdown, because it portends an existential threat. What then, stay at home and starve? Get thrown out of your house by the landlord? Have your electricity and water supply cut off? And if you are servicing a bank loan?
It’s not far-fetched to think that at some point, government might have to guarantee interest-free loans from banks and telecoms, perhaps an emergency stay on rent and bills. That radical or it might not end well, for the politics too.
Mr Rukwengye is the founder, Boundless Minds. [email protected]
