Eala elections have exposed Uganda’s political battle lines

There has been drama (to put it mildly) around the election of political party candidates to be nominated for the nine Ugandan Eala seats. Of the current nine Eala members all the six who went on the NRM ticket have served two terms and are thus barred from seeking another term. The only incumbents eligible to contest are Fred Mukasa Mbidde (DP), Chris Opoka Okumu (UPC) and Susan Nakawuki (Independent). At the time of this writing, all three have presented their nominations and await the MPs who constitute the electoral college to decide their fate.
Earlier in the week, FDC secretary general Nandala Mafabi had written to the Speaker demanding that the FDC be guaranteed two seats in Eala. The letter was relying on the argument of numerical strength which argument the regional court had thrown out in the Mbidde case.
The current controversies, however, have a history. In 2011, the DP being concerned that it was not able to compete for Eala seats decided to petition the East African Court of Justice to block the election of Ugandan representatives to Eala unless the rules were revised to conform to the treaty. Through its then national legal advisor, DP argued that unless the rule on numerical strength in Parliament was changed it would be barred technically from sending a representative to Eala. Through his lawyer Justine Ssemuyaba, Mbidde sought an injunction on the election of Ugandans Eala members, insisting that the rules used in 2006 violated Article 50 of the treaty establishing the EAC. The court agreed with DP and according ordered Uganda to ensure that the rules comply with Article 50 of the treaty.
Before the DP case, Jacob Oulanyah had moved the Constitutional Court in Uganda to make an order that independents should be allowed a slot to compete for in Eala elections. The basis of that order was that apart from parties in Parliament there are other shades of opinion that need to be represented by candidates to compete independently of political parties.
Article 50 states that “The national assembly of each partner state shall elect, not from among its members, nine members of the assembly, who shall represent as much as it is feasible, the various political parties represented in the national assembly, shades of opinion, gender and other special interest groups in that partner state, in accordance with such procedure as the national assembly of each partner state may determine.” It was reported that during the NRM Central Executive Committee meeting, Speaker Kadaga tried to persuade NRM to nominate five candidates to ensure that all parties in parliament get representation. The NRM CEC rejected Kadaga’s pleas insisting that though the NRM is more than 80 per cent of the Parliament it has already accepted to field candidates for 65 per cent of the seats.
Therefore, no one should expect them to be more considerate than that. Kadaga reportedly left disappointed, yet her formula of 5:3:1 would have stemmed the tide of conflict and reduced tension.
Last Thursday, this columnist met the Leader of Opposition and the FDC president in order to develop some common ground. Part of the discussion was the nomination of two candidates by FDC and the demand that they should be guaranteed those seats by right. That would lock out DP and UPC. That would open another battle line reminiscent of the 2012 elections where the Opposition parties having failed to pressure NRM into conceding more seats, instead turned on each other. The FDC leaders also admit that by nominating Ingrid Turinawe, who is the female face of the defiance campaign, the otherwise solid candidature of former MP Florence Ibi Ekwau may suffer. Florence Ibi got the highest number of votes during the FDC candidate selection process and I suggested that the FDC considers withdrawing Turinawe.
Of course the best measure would have been a proactive approach taken in time by the Opposition to negotiate with NRM. That is why the DP opened up the Eala contest to all parties in Parliament. But to contest is one thing, to win is another. In the Eala contest, the NRM majority vote hangs menacingly over the prospects of anyone who seeks election.
Above all like in any difficult political situation, you don’t get what you deserve but what you negotiate. We have to overcome our fear of negotiation and set a clear negotiation agenda. As John F. Kennedy said, we should not negotiate out of fear, but we should not fear to negotiate. [email protected]