Prime
Ecowas now faces litmus test over troubled Niger
Tom Musira
What you need to know:
There was once a time, when Ecowas became an object of admiration as a regional interstate grouping, especially after successful exploits in countries like the Gambia and others.
Former students of Political Education, as well as those who studied political science at university, should remember a topic about coups and their causes in Africa. Many of the reasons revolve around the prevalence of outright oppression, human rights abuse and generally the lack of democracy. The prevalence of coups, had seemingly become a rested and forgotten matter, as a significant number of African countries embraced democratic rule though after an exertion of pressure from the Western world during the 1990s.
Unfortunately, we are witnessing a typical reversal of trend, through the current West African pattern, where coups have re-emerged as a concern in recent years.
The case of Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and recently Niger, are perfect examples of democratic failure as armies seize state control in order to assume authority over the civilian population.
There was once a time, when Ecowas became an object of admiration as a regional interstate grouping, especially after successful exploits in countries like the Gambia and others.
The Gambian experience witnessed the might of Ecomog forces, led by Senegal to throw out Yahya Jammeh, the former Gambian dictator who had attempted to stretch his rule against the will of the Gambian people.
The world watched with glee, as Jammeh was reduced to a helpless coward, by sight of the advancing Senegalese forces. He inevitably swallowed his pride, became desperate and rushed to board the fastest plane to Equatorial Guinea, where he sought asylum.
The Niger experience, unlike that of the Gambia seems to have left Ecowas trapped in a dilemma as a section of West African states vow to ally with Niger’s coup leaders. The leaders of Mali and Burkina Faso are resolute to put up a fight alongside their Nigerien counterparts, against a possible Ecomog onslaught.
On the other hand, the threat of a Niger-based military alliance, seems to have driven Ecowas into being cautious, by contemplating on reconsidering the earlier position to invade Niger. The Niger coup leaders are apparently adamant, deliberate and determined to hold on to power, just like a newly married couple, in need of protecting their hard-won marriage.
In this case, they will fight to death in a bid to guard against anyone with intention to undermine their rule, irrespective of the consequences of war to such an impoverished country and the entire Sahel region.
In the meantime, the strong-willed coup leaders, have reduced Ecowas to managing a public relations strategy, through invasion threats and the rhetoric about their determination to restore democracy in Niger.
This could have as well been influenced by the unpredictable outcome of a full scale war which warrants a serious weighing of options. A defeat of the Ecomog forces will make Ecowas fractured as a regional interstate body. It will lose command over affairs concerning its member states. It might also leave the regional body divided, which will make its existence threatened and generally rendered irrelevant in the long-run.
As of now, Ecowas needs to play it safe. It’s much better for Ecowas to go slow on Niger and rather stick to diplomatic channels of managing the Niger crisis. Waging war against Niger amounts to walking a tight rope. It is a showdown that will plung the Sahel region into greater chaos.
Mr Tom Musira is a social worker and development consultant based in Kamuli Municipality.
