Happy New Year 2024

Tomorrow is a public holiday to celebrate January 1, 2024, New Year’s Day in the Gregorian calendar. It is always one of the most festive occasions of the year, especially for young people who are the vast majority of the population of Uganda and Africa. In the Julian calendar which most Orthodox Churches use, New Year will be celebrated on January 14, 2024.      
     The Chinese New Year 2024 will fall on February 10, 2024 and it is the “Year of the Dragon” specifically the wood dragon year which lasts until January 28, 2025. In Chinese culture the dragon represents authority, power, prosperity and good fortune.

     The year 2024 promises to be very busy with many political, social, economic and other activities taking place. There will be elections in many countries in Africa and elsewhere in the world such as, USA, UK, Venezuela, Pakistan, India, Indonesia and Bangladesh. In Africa elections will, inter alia, take place in Algeria, Botswana, Ghana, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, South Sudan and Tunisia.

    From July 26 to August 11, 2024 Paris will host the Olympic and Paralympic Games which will be the biggest event ever organised in France. Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte must be turning in his grave and wishing he was alive to supervise this global activity in his former empire.
      South Africa’s 2024 elections will be a watershed since the end of the evil apartheid regime 30 years ago in 1994. Almost 27 million South Africans will in 2024 go to the polls to elect 400 members of the National Assembly or parliament and members of provincial legislatures for each of the 9 provinces. This will be the seventh elections to be held since the end of apartheid. Unlike in the past when the African National Congress (ANC) easily won a majority of seats in Parliament, this time round ANC may fail to do so.

    ANC’s popularity and support in South Africa dropped to below 50 per cent for the first time at the 2021 elections due to the fact that successive ANC governments have failed to live up to the aspirations and expectations of and deliver desired results to the vast majority who are black South Africans. The leaders of ANC have been accused of primitive accumulation of wealth while endemic and systemic corruption on a massive scale has sadly become a hallmark of ANC which is a tragedy for Nelson Mandela’s party. I would not be surprised if a coalition of opposition political parties such as the Democratic Alliance, Julius Malema’s EFF and others deny ANC and President Cyril Ramaphosa another term of office.
     If all goes well, our neighbour to the north, namely South Sudan will hold the long-awaited general elections in December 2024. President Salva Kiir, candidate of SPLM, will seek another term as head of state. 

    In the USA the stage is set for a repeat of the 2020 presidential elections between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump on November 5, 2024. According to opinion polls the two rivals will most likely be nominated as Presidential candidates for the Democratic party and Republican party respectively. My prediction is that Joe Biden will win once again. Elections will also be held for Senators, members of the lower House of Congress, governors of  states, cities and many local authorities.

    India which boasts as the largest democracy in the world will hold general elections in April-May 2024; about 1 billion Indian voters are expected to participate and elect 543 members of the Lok Sabha or parliament which will in turn choose the prime Minister of India with a population of 1.4 billion people. The incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi of BJP has served two terms. First Indian Prime Minister Nehru’s Congress party stands a good chance at the elections. 
    I wish all Ugandans a happy and prosperous New Year.
   
Mr Acemah is a political scientist and retired career diplomat.                     [email protected]