Prime
It’s more of a Kadaga versus Museveni do
Author: Asuman Bisiika. PHOTO/FILE.
What you need to know:
- Mr Asuman Bisiika says: Even with his UPC roots, Oulanya’s appeal to the opposition pales off Kadaga’s.
Who will be the next Speaker of Parliament? That is the hottest political story on social media. There are three main contenders: Mr Ibrahim Ssemuju Nganda, Mr Jacob Oulanyah and Ms Rebecca Kadaga. Mr Nganda is the incumbent MP (and MP-Elect) for Kiira Municipality. Mr Oulanyah is the Deputy Speaker and MP (and MP-Elect) for Omoro County. Ms Kadaga is the incumbent Speaker and District Woman MP (and MP-elect) for Kamuli District.
The election of the Speaker for the current Parliament was a tussle between Kadaga and Oulanyah. It attracted Mr Museveni’s physical presence in Parliament. So, for Kadaga and Oulanyah, this is a continuation of their 2016 brawl.
It was assumed that Kadaga would be serving her last term (2016-2021) and that Oulanyah would be the NRM candidate for Speaker of Parliament in 2021. With this, one would say Kadaga is just doing the Dickensian Oliver Twist: I want more.
The Speaker of Parliament is the third most powerful person in the country. But I don’t think those vying for the position have the pursuit of power as their objective. What they want are the perks; because in Uganda, everyone knows Mr Museveni hogs all the levers of power (soft and hard). But Kadaga is more disposed to use that office to project some power (off Mr Museveni). That’s why the contest for Speaker has boiled down to ‘a Kadaga versus Museveni challenge’.
Kadaga has three major advantages on her side. We have just come from a bruising electoral process in which Buganda region broke ranks with Mr Museveni. Would it be politically wise for Mr Museveni to antagonise Busoga region where Kadaga is portrayed as the undisputable political leader?
Another advantage for Kadaga is the gender card; which she is emotively whipping without let. The third advantage is that she enjoys more national appeal than her main challenger: Oulanya. Even with his Uganda People’s Congress roots, Oulanya’s appeal to the opposition pales off Kadaga’s.
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There is a general feeling that this could be Museveni’s last term of service (I can’t bet even a coin on this). If this is his last term, therefore, those holding constitutional offices like that of the Vice President, Speaker of Parliament and Prime Minister should fit in his (personal) 2026 calculations. For this reason, Museveni needs a more loyal Speaker of Parliament than Kadaga can offer; Oulanya seems to be the best bet.
Kadaga’s disposition to project power has alienated her from the party. And for most of the people around Museveni, Kadaga doesn’t score highly on the issue of loyalty. If it were the old YKM, Kadaga would be elevated to the lifeless position of Vice President. But…? Yes, but there is the NAMP (New Amama Mbabazi Phenomenon) to contend with.
There is this unending rumour that Amama Mbabazi may return to government as vice president. Although I don’t take to rumours rather easily, I can bet all my royal inheritance that Amama Mbabazi was involved in a State House meeting where Mr Museveni laid out his ‘entente cordiale’ (cordial relationship) vision with DR Congo. In attendance were the Prime Minister, Minister for Foreign Affairs, a UPDF colonel and a French speaking UPDF general.
Now, most Ugandans know that Kadaga would feel uncomfortable working under Mbabazi (and other political actors who have been objects of her wrathful tongue).
For Museveni, it may just boil down to choosing between 2021 and 2026 or between Kadaga and Mbabazi.
Mr Bisiika is the executive editor of the East African Flagpost. [email protected]
