Author, Benjamin Rukwengye. PHOTO/FILE.
Three weeks ago, the data guys at Visual Capitalist released a graph that was more than confounding.
They had aggregated data from the 2024 UN Population Prospects to find out which countries were registering more emigrants than immigrants. Basically, which countries had more people fleeing from than to them. When people decide to move country, it is usually down to very bad politics or economics – or both. So, countries like Sudan, South Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Palestine, would obviously make the list. Except, Uganda comes in at Number 12 as well, despite having not been at war and official data showing that the economy has been growing at a very impressive 3-7 percent over the last decade or so.
Something just didn’t seem right. Till this week, when a panel at a conference convened by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, to discuss brain drain. During one of the activities, a presenter asked the audience to put up their hand if they would take the chance to leave Uganda were it to present itself. Almost everyone did, and it isn’t surprising why.
About four years ago, we had a conversation with my grandfather to just understand what life was like for him as a businessman during Uganda’s turbulent period. He had transitioned from teaching to trade, running a general merchandise shop in Ishaka Town, Bushenyi District. Apparently, the returns from doing business guaranteed that he could take care of his family better than he would have on a teacher’s salary.
He said that while life had been grim during the Amin and Obote years, the NRM bush war did not destabilise life for many people in western Uganda. They knew that there was a war going on in pretty much the same distant way that a lot of the south related with the Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency that was wiping out a generation in northern Uganda.
That picture is helpful if you want to understand the theory that we might not be at war but that does not mean that we are at peace. There are no bombs dropping from the sky and buildings turning to rubble in Kampala, in the way that it has been happening in Gaza and the Sudan for a year now. Yet, people are on the run.
Their businesses are sinking. Their kin can’t find work. There aren’t enough doctors, medicines and equipment in hospitals. School dropout rates are knocking on the 70th percentile. Their land and properties are getting grabbed. Criminals – common and sophisticated – are operating with impunity. Yet there are others who are seemingly oblivious of these realities. In that case, there is a kind of civil war – between those experiencing Uganda and the ones superintending it. Like in the other countries with net negative migration, our politics and economics are in the abyss. Both politicians and bureaucrats are in a gridlock from the regime fatigue, and that explains why decisions like the parliamentary tourism make sense.
If you are a politician, you know that in the current circumstances, your views hold no significant value. The mandate of Parliament has been neutered and the House is now an appendage of a bulky inefficient and tired Executive that has nothing new to offer. The citizens know this and that is why those who can are opting to leave.
So, you resort to gimmicks such as taking Parliament on a roadshow. At a macro level, there is no benefit to the decision. Your average Ugandan couldn’t be bothered if the House was sitting in Kampala, Karamoja, the National Theatre or not at all. Many would in fact code it as a liability and an unnecessary expenditure. But secondary cities like Gulu – where it is sitting this week – will be grateful for the opportunity to tap into whatever crumbs are dropped.
Hoteliers, bar managers, side chics, food suppliers and whoever makes an honest will at the very least have the chance to make something back. The incumbent politicians will also see this as lottery ticket ahead of what is likely to be an even more competitive next election. And that is where the problem begins – because we can expect to see more clamouring and petitions from tens of districts, requesting to host parliamentary sittings. Brace yourself, it is going to be a long wild ride before the crash.
Benjamin Rukwengye is the founder of Boundless Minds. [email protected]
