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Muhoozi, Odrek and Bobi Wine: Who would be the voters’ favourite?
Author: Musaazi Namiti. PHOTO/COURTESY
What you need to know:
- Constitutionally, though, Mr Kyagulanyi ticks all the boxes. What is more, in a free and fair election, Gen Muhoozi and Mr Rwabwogo would struggle to beat Mr Kyagulanyi.
President Museveni will stand for re-election in 2026, and as Ugandans know, it is impossible for him to lose an election in which he is a candidate. That means he will continue his run of (disputed) electoral victories, which started in 1996, and by the time the next election is held in 2031, he will have been in power for 45 years.
No one knows for sure whether Mr Museveni will be alive in 2031 and whether he will still want to renew his mandate. He turned 80 this year and will be 87 in 2031. Will he be too old to lead? Probably not.
Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad was 92 in 2018 when he was elected prime minister, returning to the top job he had held from 1981 until 2003.
Whether Mr Museveni seeks re-election in 2031 or not, there will be new and old faces on the political landscape.
NUP’s Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, will be 49 and will be still strong physically and mentally. If Mr Museveni quits, Mr Kyagulanyi will likely stand one more time, hoping that a Museveni-less election could boost his chances of victory.
Then there will be a candidate or candidates from Mr Museveni’s family. Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the army chief, is eyeing the presidency, though he announced two weeks ago that he would not be a candidate in the 2026 election. He may join the contest in 203.
And there is Mr Odrek Rwabwogo, the son-in-law of Mr Museveni and the chairperson of the Presidential Advisory Committee on Exports and Industrial Development (PACEID).
Mr Rwabwogo, 55, has not declared any presidential ambition. However, while he says “my three key priorities are to bring honour and glory to God [...], to nurture, protect and strengthen my family and to immerse myself in the work of the country where I have been called to serve”, he has previously attempted to jump into the political fray.
In 2016, he tried to run for the position of National Resistance Movement (NRM) vice-chairperson for the western region, which was held by Maj Gen Matayo Kyaligonza, one of the soldiers who led the armed rebellion that brought Mr Museveni to power.
The NRM’s Central Executive Committee (CEC) dropped Mr Rwabwogo to ease tensions within the party, but he continues to mobilise young Ugandans and keeps talking about his work in the Movement.
It is hard to predict with certainty who will contest the presidential election in 2031. But assuming all three will be on the ballot paper, who will be the voters’ favourite?I will begin with Gen Muhoozi. Ugandans who think Uganda needs a leader with a military background — and they are many — will find him electable. But Gen Muhoozi’s (verbal) communication skills are shockingly weak. He would struggle to run an effective electoral campaign that charms and wows voters. He is also weak in tact and diplomacy.
Enter Mr Rwabwogo. A former journalist, he has decent communication skills, he is diplomatic and seems to have a vision for the country. But on the campaign trail in the central region, where voters are charmed by fluent Luganda speakers, he and Gen Muhoozi would struggle. (Museveni does not speak fluent Luganda, but he did not get power through the ballot).
How about Mr Kyagulanyi? He is popular, especially in the central region, but mature voters and the elite think he is unfit to lead Uganda.
Constitutionally, though, Mr Kyagulanyi ticks all the boxes. What is more, in a free and fair election, Gen Muhoozi and Mr Rwabwogo would struggle to beat Mr Kyagulanyi.
