Philip Matogo
No civilian will lead Uganda after President Museveni. The security forces will not allow it. The next leader will be a soldier or policeman,” Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba posted a week ago on X (formerly Twitter). Gen Muhoozi is the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) and is also the First Son. His post, predictably, caused a furore.
Many are outraged by his seeming involvement in partisan politics. Unfortunately, this is what we have come to, politically. However, there is a silver lining.Most of the officialese surrounding pronouncements on succession have been tame about what role the army will play.
Ordinarily, we would not have to ask this. Chiefly because the army is supposed to defend the Constitution and, by extension, the prerogatives of President Museveni’s successor, regardless of whom that might be. But, the billion shilling question is: was he lying? No.
The Opposition and other critics of the status quo have often said the army is the one thing keeping President Museveni in power. So it follows that his successor will also require the benefit of force in the context of our martial politics.
We can all see the army playing puppeteer to all the puppets in the Punch-and-Judy show we call Ugandan politics. With that in mind, we can all appreciate that Gen Muhoozi is being brutally honest. And this honesty is something our politicians have all too often elided in favour of a mealy-mouthed disposition.
You rarely hear our politicos calling a spade a spade when discussing succession and how it will play out with a partisan army.
The truth hurts, they say, and the CDF’s posts hurt a great deal. That said, since the army’s role in our politics is appreciated by all as central. The CDF’s words can be taken for what they are: words. They will not shape any new political realities because they reflect our old political realities.
To be sure, we are not talking about the famous Blood and Iron speech made by Otto von Bismarck on September 30, 1862.
Bismarck’s address led to German unification, immediately leading to the Franco-Prussian War while putting paid to all intra-German conflicts.
Bismarck’s speech was transformational because it spoke to new beginnings. The CDF’s post will not be because it exposes old endings. We have seen the CDF’s words play out several times in our history.
Thus, our political class should ignore his post for its obviousness. To indulge in calls for the disciplining of the CDF is to deny that the army holds sway.
The CDF is fast personifying this ruling group. Still, we could probe his post for what it did not explicitly say. That is all those who hope to go up against the CDF in pursuit of the presidency should pack it in and quit. Not his family members or anybody else will stand in his way.
Sure, the CDF did say he was not running for any political office at the moment. But political contest does not only begin when one puts themselves forward.
Many times it starts by one ensuring their competitors are not in the running in the first place.
Accordingly, you have to break their confidence in thinking they can compete with you. This is what the CDF was attempting to do. Whether he will succeed in this attempt is anybody’s guess.
