Odinga declares war on electoral fraud, takes oath as ‘president’

Raila Amolo Odinga, 73, dusted himself off on Tuesday for another run for president in 2022 when he will take on Kenyan deputy president William Samoei Ruto if his fortune cookie gives him the ruling party’s flag.
Mr Odinga adored and reviled in equal measure, beat the odds to take oath as the “people’s president of the Republic of Kenya” at Uhuru Park. The same ceremony was “missed” by his deputy Kalonzo Musyoka, senator Moses Wetang’ula, the minority leader, and his chief campaigner Musalia Mudavadi. This historical fate excludes the three from any consideration to lead the ODM dominated outfit and ensures that the current Jubilee-ODM impasse is likely to continue unless resolved politically soon.
At the end of the last campaigns, both Kenyatta and Odinga swore off mnusu kati or the politics of the coalition. The election ended up in the courts but CORD lost more ground than it gained. In parliament, Jubilee achieved a majority in both houses and a majority of the governorships. It also delivered the psychological blow of wrestling Nairobi County from ODM.
Odinga, whose troops are younger, energetic and shut out of the political system through his successful election petition, managed to poke enough holes in the electoral tabulation system that even where balloting was free and fair, the state is so much an agent as a beneficiary in the final ballot results.
Election results have remained a major source of contention in democracy’s backward march across the African continent. Different countries have widely reported electoral grievances; Gabon, Angola, Congo-Brazzaville, Zambia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Madagascar. In Tanzania, courts cannot review a presidential election and Edward Lowassa, former presidential candidate and prime minister, has already mended fences with president John Magufuli. Burundi and the DRC have postponed elections.
Odinga, three times presidential candidate, twice cheated is positioning himself for yet another run by saying enough is enough. Curiously, he has adopted “guerilla” tactics from Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye by “swearing” in as the “people’s president.” Both Mr Odinga and Besigye’s are doomed by their continued participation in a flawed system mostly rigged against them. Mobutu played the same game with Etienne Tshikeddi, his former prime minister, who would “win” all elections but never quite made it to State House.
If Odinga runs in 2022, he will face the same constellation of forces that are determined to lock him out for good. Elections are about the people at the top, but they are also very much about who gets to eat the bread crumbs from the table, nnusu kati. Besigye deposed Muntu because of the mileage he was drawing from mnusu kati. Odinga is likely to do the same with his fragmented counterparts in CORD.
Uhuru Kenyatta arrived from Addis Ababa oblivious to the fact that there were now two presidents in his realm. The huge crowds at Uhuru Park had returned home by that time. Not even a single drop of tear gas was sighted in Nairobi. Having closed out his cabinet by reappointing many of them, Uhuru is setting sights on other teething problems, a sluggish economy and corruption.
Odinga at that point has become an inherited problem. It will be for his successor to deal with. So was Morgan Tsvangirai, who is ailing now in Zimbabwe and probably Besigye, who may outlive President Museveni. He is just 62, an adolescent compared to Tingatinga Odinga. This electoral system of publishing results or locking up opponents creates a very costly IOU system. The big victors of this system are State actors, who learn how to read the boss’ mood, and trap him in office. With president Odinga, we are just getting started.

Last week’s column contained reference to Sadab Kitatta. The person referred to in the column is Abdallah Kitatta. We regret any inconvenience caused to the parties.