Writer: James Opito. PHOTO/FILE/COURTESY
In December 2023, the 28th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change (COP28) concluded with a call for nations to decarbonize. World leaders have been pursuing this cause since the adoption in 2015 of the climate accord during COP21.
Coming in the wake of Uganda’s announcement of commercial availability of about 6.5 billion barrels of Crude oil in the Albertine Graben in 2006, the global call for decarbonisation of energy is both problematic and opportunistic for Uganda. Energy transition which refers to the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources in an effort to reduce carbon dioxide emissions presents a crossroads for Uganda that hopes her investments in exploiting 1.4 billion barrels of expected recoverable crude oil will pay off in both the short and long runs.
Scientists say since the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) human generation of energy from fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) caused an average rise of our earth’s surface temperature by up to 1.20Celcius, and every effort must be made to keep it below 1.50C above pre-industrial level.
For Uganda, the problem is that 90 percent of her population still depends on biomass as a primary source of energy (MEMD, 2023). Electricity access stands at 45 percent; including solar, wind, thermal, and biogas.
According to Electricity Regulatory Authority (2024), Uganda’s energy potential includes an estimated 2,000MW of hydroelectric power (with installed capacity of 1,510.9 MW, and unexploited potential of 489.1MW), 450MW of geothermal energy, 1,650MW of biomass cogeneration mainly at sugar manufacturing plants, 460 million tons of biomass in stock with a sustainable annual output of 50 million tons, an average of 5.1kWh/m2 /day of solar energy, and about 250 million tons of peat (800MW).
The estimated total potential of renewable energy power generation is 5,300MW. With a total installed grid capacity of 1846.1MW, the unexploited potential is 3,453.9MW.
In science, energy is defined as the ability to do work. This ability is generated through transforming potential energy, which is the energy stored in an object due to its position, properties, and forces acting on it, into various forms. Uganda’s over dependence on biomass is true evidence of the country’s infant economy with vastly untapped energy potential. The country is not ideally a culprit for the global carbon mess but a victim of its climate effects. The social fabrics that should support her citizens’ resilience and adaptive capacity to erratic weather patterns are dismal. The country needs her petroleum investment as an equity ladder to jump over the energy transition gap.
Fortunately, the country’s national grid is mainly renewable. With per capita emission of 0.13 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, Uganda’s carbon footprint of 5,674.6 as of 2020 is no cause for alarm in the global climate conundrum but her vulnerability is.
Despite the need to clean, and green her energy, Uganda needs energy addition to serve its population and build the momentum for a national energy transition.
Energy transition must deal with the current global carbon asymmetry. Roughly, the global per capita inequality of carbon emission is 30 times higher for developed countries than in developing countries. Africa contributes below 4 percent of the global carbon emission, although her 1.49billion people constitute over 17 percent of the world’s 8.1billion. Uganda should closely follow the energy transition debate without problematizing its petroleum investments but take from it key lessons to help fasten her energy transition.
Uganda should safeguard its minerals regime, recognize the important role these minerals play, and take measures to prevent any negative externalities of the rush for them.
James Opito, and works at ACODE as the National Coordinator for the Civil Society Coalition on Oil and Gas.
