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Sad: Rwanda-Uganda tiff could collapse East African Community
Asuman Bisiika
What you need to know:
- Question. Will the other East African leaders just look on and fail to call their warrior brothers to order? Why are the other East African leaders silent?
Let me ask experts on the Geopolitics, Security and Military affairs of the Great Lakes Region: At what level of death is the Luanda Memorandum of Understanding between Gen Paul Kagame and Gen Yoweri Museveni? Has the said MoU been ‘deathed’ or is it being managed in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and heading for the inevitable ‘deathing’?
This story should be written in a manner that reflects its seriousness and the potential negative impact (it has already caused) on livelihoods of Ugandans and Rwandans. Gen Kagame and Gen Museveni to sort their issues and let Ugandans and Rwandans be.
Even when Rwandan authorities offered a temporary opening of the border, no Rwandan freight destined for Uganda was allowed and a travel advisory ‘guiding’ Rwandan citizens against travelling to Uganda remained in force.
Rwandan citizens still face the risk of death for using un-gazetted routes to cross into Uganda. When Rwandan citizens being killed (on Rwanda soil), Ugandans were like: ‘utwik’urwe…’ (Kinyarwanda: He who burns his house… should be assisted).
But some Ugandan citizens were recently killed on Rwanda soil on accusations of smuggling. Other Ugandans were lucky to be deported (without bodily harm). And we pose the question: To what extent are these generals ready ‘to stand’ their egos? Put another way: What would it take for Gen Museveni and Gen Kagame to understand that they are hurting their people?
As these warrior princes of East Africa are digging at each other, Arusha’s silence is deafeningly dangerous. And East African leaders like Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya and John Magufuli of Tanzanai seem to be saying with cynic disinterest: Si waache mudomo wapigane tu…’ (Swahili: Let them stop shouting and just fight…).
Yet beyond hurting their people, these two men are inadvertently hurting the region (and the East African Community). To put it rather plainly, the Uganda-Rwanda tiff could collapse the East African Community in a manner that reflects off the Nyerere-Amin friction.
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Anyway, can someone kindly confirm to me the veracity of the rumour that the East African Summit of Heads of State and Government has been postponed? If this is true, then it is ominous…; there may soon come a time when Gen Museveni and Gen Kagame will do anything to avoid meeting anywhere. And then bang: End of East African Community!
I think until the East African Summit was postponed, Nairobi and Dodoma didn’t seem to give a damn about these fellows who think all issues should be toughed out. But these regional leaders should know that the actions of the two governments do not represent any popular interests on both sides.
Do the other East African leaders realise that the tiff between Gen Kagame, Gen Museveni and president Pierre Kurunziza of Burundi has negatively impacted the East African Community (and what it is supposed to stand for)? Will the other East African leaders just look on and fail to call their warrior brothers to order? Why are the other East African leaders silent? Don’t they realise that the misunderstanding between these leaders could collapse the East African Community?
For those interesting themselves in a war between Rwanda and Uganda, here is some strategic projection: Any fight between Rwanda and Uganda would lead into unintended consequences like regime change in one of (or both) the countries. The opportunity to fight in a foreign soil (DRC?) may also not be available; ditto for using proxy armed rebels.
In the end, the duty (with all the honour) to save the East African Community (and of course saving the tough guys in Kigali and Kampala themselves) lies with Kenya and Tanzania.
