Author: Asuman Bisiika. PHOTO/FILE.
It is quite long since we last heard of any troubles in South Sudan.
That, though, is not to say all is well. It looks like no African-led process will resolve the leadership crisis in South Sudan. And that a post-Kirr South Sudan will be a tough one. All the African leaders involved in finding a solution to the South Sudan political crisis seem to be more interested in their egos than ending the suffering visited on the people by their so-called leaders.
A friend from Juba told me that without the Uganda People’s Defence Foreces (UPDF), the government would have collapsed long time ago. But most Ugandans are not aware of the UPDF’s status in South Sudan. Indeed, the only time Parliament discussed South Sudan, it was made clear; government was not seeking parliamentary endorsement or authorisation for UPDF deployment in South Sudan.
Government wanted to update the August house about UPDF troops in South Sudan. Yet there was no need to brief or update parliament. At that time, the UPDF operation in South Sudan had seamlessly (or shamelessly?) transitioned through four phases; 1) evacuation of Ugandan citizens from Juba City; 2) Evacuation of Ugandan citizens from the entire South Sudan); 3) Securing strategic installations in Juba; and 4) Combat ops.
Dr Crispus Kiyonga, then minister for Defence, even moved the motion on the floor of Parliament under a wrong Section of the UPDF Act! And in a typical act of thespic candour, the Speaker begged MPs to allow the minister to amend his own motion.
He then moved the motion under Section 40 of the UPDF Act (instead of Section 39 under which the original text of the motion was premised). That was a long time ago.
Later, the Parliament of South Sudan extended the life of the current government for three years (to 2018). Initially, the life of the (current) government led by President Salva Kirr (and Parliament) was supposed to end in 2015 (after an election). Up to now (2024), no one knows when South Sudan will hold elections. Neither do people like me care.
As foreigners, our argument is: As long as the guns are silent, we should keep silent too. And I know someone in Entebbe who says: “As long as Salva Kirr is president in South Sudan, no need for noise.” It is very probable that South Sudanese are now inclined to prep themselves for Mr SKirr as president-for-life. But will that go without any challenge? Methinks not.
If there is no challenge, then there will be challenges in post-Kirr South Sudan. Does Uganda still have troops in South Sudan? I dont know; neither do I need to know.
But I am more inclined to say there are no UPDF troops in South Sudan. Why? Don't laugh…; because there is no record of Parliament of Uganda authorising government to deploy troops in South Sudan. Lol! Plus: even if they were there, what could be their objective of their deployment and under what process?
When will South Sudan hold presidential elections? I am not sure. The only thing I am sure of is: President Salva Kiir doesnt have the political and psychological wherewithal to organise, participate (in) and win an election in South Sudan. And what does this mean?
It means that we either have Mr. Kirr as life president or have a messy election that could trigger a justification for armed rebellion. Both are not good. Is there a third option? Nze na we (Luganda: none of us knows). What was the question again? How will the mess in South Sudan end? None of us knows.
Mr Bisiika is the executive editor of the East African Flagpost.
