Somalia can’t afford needless wars

The Horn of Africa, a region characterised by its complex geopolitical landscape, faces numerous challenges that threaten its stability. Among these challenges, Somalia stands out as a nation struggling with internal disunity and security issues.

Recent developments in the Horn of Africa have stirred significant controversy, particularly regarding the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Ethiopia and the self-declared separatist state of Somaliland.

This agreement, which grants Ethiopia access to the Red Sea through Somaliland’s ports, has sparked debate and heightened regional tensions. This MoU has been met with strong opposition from Somalia, which views the agreement as a direct challenge to its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The MoU has been condemned by Somalia as illegal and provocative, leading to the recall of Somalia’s ambassador to Ethiopia and a declaration of the agreement as null and void. Somalia has also sought international support from the African Union and the United Nations.

In a bid to resolve the tensions, Turkey took on a mediation role. However, these talks ended without a formal agreement.

Internal challenges

Somalia’s ability to engage in or sustain large-scale conflicts is compromised by its ongoing internal struggles. The country is grappling with a multitude of issues that hinder its capacity for military engagement and overall stability.

Somalia has been plagued by political violence for decades. The power vacuum left by the collapse of the central government in the early 1990s has led to the rise of various factions, warlords, and militant groups. Political violence continues to undermine efforts to establish a cohesive and elective government.

The presence of militant groups, including al-Shabaab, poses a significant security threat within Somalia.

These groups exploit the country’s instability to advance their agendas, further complicating efforts to maintain peace and order.

The country faces severe humanitarian crises, including widespread poverty, food insecurity, and a lack of basic services. Somalia’s internal disunity, marked by clan-based politics and regional rivalries, further complicates the nation's ability to present a unified front. 

Given these internal challenges, Somalia is ill-equipped to serve as a battleground for external conflicts, including the tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. The nation’s current situation highlights several reasons why it cannot afford to be drawn into future wars.

The Somali government and its people are primarily focused on addressing internal issues rather than engaging in external conflicts. The priority remains on achieving stability, rebuilding the nation, and addressing humanitarian needs.

Any external conflict involving Somalia would likely exacerbate the existing instability. The country’s already fragile state could deteriorate further, leading to more severe humanitarian crises and political fragmentation.

Possibility of Egyptian troops in Somalia

Egypt has announced a new security arrangement with Somalia, which would see Egyptian soldiers stationed in Somalia and cooperating directly with their Somali counterparts. The stated goal is to shore up regional security in line with the renewed African Union stabilisation force in Somalia. The security deal comes at a time of heightened tension and instability in the region.

Ethiopia has strongly criticised the deal, claiming that certain actors are “taking measures to destabilise the region”.

The announcement also comes fresh off the heels of a bilateral meeting between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his Egypt counterpart in August.

In conclusion, the Horn of Africa stands at a crossroads, with Somalia facing a critical juncture in its struggle for stability amid escalating regional tensions as the geopolitical landscape becomes increasingly complex, marked by the controversial MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland.In this context, it is essential to recognise that Somalia cannot afford to be drawn into new, needless wars. 

Prioritising peace and stability is essential for the region to navigate its path towards recovery and prosperity.

Sadik Adawe is a former Somali diplomat and an analyst on the Horn of Africa, Red Sea and Gulf of Aden