The advisory would be to pray for Uganda but you probably already are

Of course, things could get better, a lot better, if we get a few things right. And that is exactly what the scholar, Michael Buteera Mugisha sought to highlight in his policy research that wonders whether Uganda is teetering on the brink of a “Looming Demographic Dividend of Disaster”.

A Demographic Dividend is basically what happens when you have more people in the workforce population compared to the number of people in the dependent population. Uganda has made that turn, as starts show that there are now more people within the labor force bracket (16 and over) than those in the dependents (14 and below).

Think of it as you would a typical home. If you had a household with 10 members who depend on the income of one or two breadwinners, there will likely be more days without bread than days with it. But if six members of that household join the working category, find good jobs, and start to make money, then taking care of the four dependents becomes light work. The family will have enough left to save and invest without compromising the standard and quality of life.

But you see, just because you have more people ready to work doesn’t mean that they will work. And that is the conundrum for Uganda because we are not investing enough in building the human capacity for that core population segment to be productive.

As a result, they are as dependent as the minors that they are supposed to be taking care of. And as the population structure continues to take this shape, what we are likely to end up with is a “population disaster”. A good illustration of this is a recent revelation that apparently, a significant number of Ugandans are applying to the NIRA, to have their dates of birth changed – some so that they are younger, others so that they are older.

Reason? The economy is not working. The majority of those who are applying to get younger are young women who are looking to move to the Middle East as domestic workers but have passed the required age grade. Editing their age gets them that next big break they need to find income to support their families and build whatever dreams they might nurse.

The category of those who are applying to be a little older is even more interesting. It follows the NSSF Amendment Act of 2021, where members of the fund who hit 45 years and have been saving for 10 years can access up to 20 percent of their monies. Without significant income to meet all the responsibilities, anxieties, and demands of a Ugandan mid-life, many people are choosing to up their age as a means to get their hands on their retirement monies as early as they possibly can.

So how do you get out of this quandary? Thankfully, there is nothing that good policies cannot fix. But to get good policies you need good quality politicians and national leadership that can build institutions that make connections between how an action or intervention in one area affects events in another area. You need a collective agenda that, in this column, we have called the “Irreducible Minimums”. The things that all of us can agree on as vital for the advancement of Uganda and Ugandans, even if we are not of the same political inclination, tribe, or religion.

When you look around, unfortunately, there is little evidence that the required quality is readily available. Most of what you see of the leadership is mediocrity at best, as evidenced by the pedestrian debates, petty fights, and resultant catastrophic laws and policies.

Mr Rukwengye is the founder, Boundless Minds.

@Rukwengye