Author: Asuman Bisiika. PHOTO/FILE
The 2026 General Elections will be the story of political Buganda under Pax Musevenica. It will be the story of Mr Mathias Mpuuga and Mr Bobi Wine. After 2026, new faces to influence political attitudes (voting patterns) in Buganda will emerge. Yet at below 50, one would expect both Bobi Wine and Mr Mathias Mpuuga to continue influencing things for 10 to 20 years after 2026.
So, what is it with Mr Mpuuga and Mr Bobi Wine? They seem to have reduced what they call ‘their struggle’ against the Museveni Junta to a turf war between urban ghetto sub-culture and traditional political disposition.
I was scandalised when I heard Mr Abed Bwanika’s utterances that verged on an attempt to stop some National Unity Platform leadership from visiting Masaka. Mr Bwanika’s utterances were dangerous and one would expect Mr Mpuuga to dissociate himself from Bwanika’s unseemly utterances.
And so, this is how a leading opposition political party is going into the 2026 General Elections with huge fissures in its rank and file. However, with the confusion in NUP, Dr Kizza Besigye seems to be feeling (okay, filling) the leadership gap in the political opposition.
Analysts say that Dr Besigye is likely to lead the formation of a new political party. Names have been thrown around. I even personally made some name suggestions: Liberation Front, Peoples Front and Congress of the People (COP) etc.
Yet Ugandans do not seem to be able to put a finger on the vortex of Dr Besigye’s endgame. Will he be a presidential candidate in the 2026 general elections? Will he help found a political party and lead from behind? As the person with the highest national profile among the people around, Dr Besigye is not likely to lead from behind.
Dr Besigye seems to have recaptured the imaginations of Ugandans. Some cynics say that is why Bobi Wine has also started what seems to be a countrywide tour. He just wants to wrest the initiative from Dr Besigye to whom Ugandans seem to be warm.
On the other side of things, there is a man called Mr Museveni. Yeye pia ana mipango yake ya kisiasa (he too has his own political plans). Mr Museveni will be going on a nationwide tour of the country to popularise Parish Development Model. This tour will take a whole financial year. And mid next year, he will be making open promotional rallies for the NRM and his presidential candidature for the 2026 general elections.
Then there is the Patriotic League of Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the Chief of Defence Forces. How will the league behave next year? Will it offer a platform for parliamentary candidates? If so, to what extent would such an action disrupt the NRM? Can Mr Museveni, thought to be very sensitive in such matters, allow such an arrangement? Very unlikely, if you asked me.
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I have a strong feeling that Besigye’s new party will be called People’s Front. After the formal registration of the People’s Front as a bona fide political party, some MPs will formally leave NUP and FDC to join the said Peoples Front.
Both Dr Besigye (or Peoples Front) and NUP view their fight against Mr Museveni’s regime as a ‘struggle’. But struggles demand exposure (of leaders and followers) to mortal danger. As Mr Museveni once said: there is no struggle without sacrifices. Unfortunately (for NUP), most Ugandans still see Dr Besigye as the man behind whom to rally when it comes to political activities carrying the element of exposure to danger; even mortal danger.
Mr Bisiika is the executive editor of the East African Flagpost. [email protected]
