Prime
Uganda’s 2024 projections and other regional dynamics
Author: Asuman Bisiika. PHOTO/FILE
What you need to know:
- The year 2024 will also be the business end of the various electoral processes in the region. To start with, Tanzania and Burundi will hold presidential and parliamentary elections in 2025. That means the year 2024 will be a very politically busy year in those countries.
The year 2024 is likely to be a defining year for Uganda and other countries in the region. Felix Antoine Tshilombo wa Tshisekedi will be sworn in for his second (and last term) of office as the president of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
And I have been advised that save for any heavenly total recall, Mr Paul Kagame will also be sworn in as president of Rwanda this year. In the result, these two men are likely to continue verbally firing at each other during their respective five-year terms of office in their respective countries.
The year 2024 will also be the business end of the various electoral processes in the region. To start with, Tanzania and Burundi will hold presidential and parliamentary elections in 2025. That means the year 2024 will be a very politically busy year in those countries.
Tanzanian voters will be choosing between the amiable President Samia Suluhu and their craving for change from Chama Cha Mapinduzi leadership. There will of course be regional (and international) moral support for Suluhu’s bid for the presidency.
The significance of the 2025 elections in Tanzania and Burundi is that incumbent presidents qualify (and are likely) to run for office. In which case, the year 2024 is their political business year.
President Everest Ndayishimiye of Burundi will also most likely win the election in 2025. But there seems to be some bad blood between President Ndayishimiye of Burundi and Kagame of Rwanda. As we write this, we have just learnt that Burundi has closed its border with Rwanda. And boy, that makes it two countries in the East African Community having issues with Rwanda (we don’t know whether Uganda still has issues with Rwanda).
One would be on safe ground to bet that Ndayishimiye will win the elections. But one would still need to pray he doesn’t end up in an open public outburst with the president of Rwanda like President Tshisekedi of DR Congo.
Yet President Ndayishimiye is not likely to go unchallenged. I hold a feeling that some Burundians may resort to the old methods of resolving political issues in Burundi: armed rebellion. And if there were to be an armed rebellion in Burundi, it is highly likely that one of Burundi’s neighbours (guess who?) would support it.
In Uganda, all preparations for the 2026 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections will be made and reflected in 2024. This will be manifested in the 2024-2025 National Budget. The key area in the 2024-2025 of budgetary outlays will be for the famous Parish Development Model (PDM).
In 2024, we shall have the Electoral Commission reconstituted. And this will mark the beginning of the electoral process leading to the 2026 General Elections. And whoever wants to win the 2026 elections will have to win it with his or her posture in the 2024. For aspiring candidates for the 2026 General Elections, the most significant decisions on the election- related issues will be in 2024. Activities in 2025 will merely be for consolidation of the outcomes of activities carried out in 2024. All coalitions are likely to be cobbled together in 2024.
Some political parties may hold their delegates conference in the year 2024. However, these delegates conferences will not be acts of ideological renewal or redirection. They will actually be some kind of internal manoeuvring and outsmarting acts directed at some actors.
For instance, NRM may hold its delegates conference this year to shut off the MK Movement’s bid as early as possible. This will help NRM to unite under the same structural rally.
Mr Bisiika is the executive editor of the East African Flagpost. [email protected]
