Prime
Why Museveni is bringing Mbabazi back to the fold
Yoga Adhola
What you need to know:
- I don’t live in Uganda, so some of my reading may be disputed. However, the situation in Uganda today is very similar to the one that obtained towards the coup of 1985. At that time the army was controlled by two identities, the Langi and the Acholi. Today, the army is believed to be controlled, real or perceived, by identities from the same region.
When NTV Panorama aired a programme titled ‘What does Amama Mbabazi’s return to the fold mean?’ I sort of felt this title misses a number of points; the key one being that Mbabazi’s return is nothing but succession politics.
I don’t live in Uganda, so some of my reading may be disputed. However, the situation in Uganda today is very similar to the one that obtained towards the coup of 1985. At that time the army was controlled by two identities, the Langi and the Acholi. Today, the army is believed to be controlled, real or perceived, by identities from the same region.
There is a lot of talk that Museveni desires his son Muhoozi Kainerugaba to succeed him. This is a position which may even carry favour with some members of the Museveni family. The problem is Muhoozi is so far away in line of succession that any attempt to impose him would trigger a revolt from some senior officers. Museveni is not stupid not to see this.
In the meantime, there are strong rumours that Mbabazi is very much favoured by a substantial section of people. It seems Museveni knows this. He has, therefore, moved not only to resolve his problems with Mbabazi but to bring him back into the fold.
Like Mbabazi, I was in Fronasa. And Mbabazi and I have had occasions to share experiences of our time in Fronasa. I was in the first phase and him in the second phase. Museveni and Fronasa owe a lot to him. Museveni has reviewed and realised this. Despite whatever has happened, Museveni realises Mbabazi’s contributions.
He realises Mbabazi is a steeled cadre of Fronasa and NRM. He finds him the best choice to continue the line. In my view he may even rectify the political line. The foregoing is what is happening around Mbabazi. Talks of things like the crisis the NRM.
The panorama story also tells us upon his return, Mbabazi will realise that a lot has changed since he left. I am not sure there are any changes that are beyond Mbabazi’s comprehension. I sort of think it is Mbabazi who might have changed. My own guess is that Mbabazi has realised the history that undergirded the politics of the Movement from the time of the war, was faulty.
I also have a feeling that the Luweero Bush War itself is something Mbabazi might have questioned himself if it was the right action to take.
Given these two new perspectives, Mbabazi might be in favour of a government of national unity. And you know Mbabazi has been here before. When he ran last time, he insisted on a coalition.
However, the arguments I have spelt out above never featured in the panorama show. Instead, they concentrated on the role they expected Mbabazi to play in diplomacy to clean up the image of government.
That image stuff is far from Museveni’s mind. Museveni is deeply involved with imperialism and he knows it. He is a very useful tool in sub-Saharan Africa as journalist Timothy Kalyegira intimated. He always carries himself as a pan-Africanist solving Africa’s problems.
That is a great image for him. It is a cover which enables him to carry out missions for imperialism.
But the most crucial part of all this is his role in Somalia. He is fighting the Somalia war for the US for the cheap. Plus he has this cover of solving an African problem for Africans. You can’t beat that.
For those who are interested in reading about how Museveni got involved in Somalia, please read: ‘Managing donor perception’ published in the journal African Affairs, 111/444, 404–423.
Yoga Adhola is a leading ideologue of UPC.
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