Why 30% voters stayed away at every election since 1996

Voter turnout per region

At the 2016 election cycle, voter apathy in the western region stood at 71.3 per cent, northern 66.3 per cent, south/central 66.2 per cent, eastern region 69.8 per cent, West Nile 68.7 per cent and Karamoja 72.8 per cent. This is according to data from the Electoral Commission.

In 2011, the turnout in western region was 67.8 per cent; northern region 59.5 per cent, south and central 52.1 per cent.

 Eastern region had 62.7 per cent, West Nile 56.8 per cent and Karamoja 56.5 per cent. 

In 2001, western region had 76.7 per cent, northern region 66.8 per cent, south and central stood at 63.8 per cent, Eastern region 71 per cent, West Nile 60.1 per cent and Karamoja 73 per cent.

Although some political analysts project more voter turnout in next year’s election, the above trends do not support this claim.

Mr Timothy Kalyegira, a political analyst, told Daily Monitor yesterday that the voter turnout will increase in the 2021 general election and that Mr Robert Kyagulanyi, alias Bobi Wine, will be one of the key drivers. 

Mr Kyagulanyi is the presidential candidate for National Unity Platform  party. 

Mr Kalyegira says the emergence of new and influential challengers to President Museveni from different ethnic backgrounds and age brackets will reignite the interest of Ugandans in the electoral process.

“The arrival of Mr Kyagulanyi has changed the situation and energised voters, especially in central and eastern parts of the country,” he argues.   

Mr Museveni, who captured power in 1986 after a five-year guerrilla war, is contesting against 10 candidates for the State House seat he has occupied for 34 years. 

His probably closest challenger artiste cum politician Kyagulanyi, aged 38, is half his age and from Buganda/Central region.  Mr Museveni is from western region.  

Mr Nobert Mao of the Democratic Party (DP) is from Acholi in northern Uganda, while Mr Patrick Oboi Amuriat of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), and  Ms Nancy Nakalembe are from eastern region. 

Five of the contestants are in the age bracket of 24 to 40, nearly half or a third of Museveni’s age (77).

“We might have the kind of voter turnout we had in 2001 when Dr Kizza Besigye hit the political scene to contest for presidency,” Mr Kalyegira said.

Why declining voter turnout

The voter turnout has been consistently declining, according to data from Centre for Policy Analysis (CEPA), an election monitoring and civic education  non-governmental organisation.

In 1996, when Mr Museveni was still popular, voter turnout was 72.6 per cent. In 2001, it dropped to 70.3 per cent.

In 2006, it dropped again to 69.2 per cent, and in 2011, it slumped to 59.1 percent. In 2016, it staggered upward to 67.6 per cent. 

During the hearing of the presidential election petitions by Dr Besigye in 2001 and 2006, there was unchallenged significant evidence of election malpractices and sheer vote stealing. 

The judges on both occasions unanimously agreed there was widespread rigging but on a split majority decision they disagreed whether such vote stealing was substantive enough to annul the election. 

Since the first general election under President Museveni in 1996, there has been widespread violence, mainly orchestrated by security forces and other state agencies, against the President’s opponents in all the subsequent election cycles.  

Analysts say that these revelations of election violence and vote rigging have undermined the credibility of the electoral process and tilted the voters’ perception that no Electoral Commission (EC) can conduct a meaningful election under the current government.

They say this partly and largely explains the high voter apathy because a big section of the population perceive voting as meaningless—that their vote does not count for anything in as far as changing government through the ballot is concerned. 

Election violence is already rearing its ugly head with only three weeks into the campaigns. Two presidential candidates have been arrested on the campaign trail and more than 50 people were killed in the ensuing protests against the arrests. One candidate is facing treason charges. Several presidential candidates have protested to EC about the harassment by police and other security agencies on the campaign trail but the electoral body has not come out to publicly state its position on the alleged election violence or unfairness.    

Observers say the Electoral Commission (EC) is either helpless over the electoral process or condones actions of the security forces and this serves to diminish voters’ interest in voting and escalates their apathy. 

Mr Yusuf Sserunkuma, a researcher at Makerere University Institute for Social Research, says many Ugandans lost interest in voting when the  election processes failed to cause the peaceful and democratic change of leadership they have longed for.

“In addition to the rigging of votes, Ugandans believe that election doesn’t matter and determine who becomes the next president. Most Ugandans don’t see a connection between government and their daily living, so they don’t take interest in election processes,”  Mr Sserunkuma argues.

The EC is appointed by President Museveni, who is one of the contestants in the electoral race. Persistent calls by Opposition and civil society organisations to have EC  appointed by an independent arm of government such as the judiciary have been flatly rejected.

Mr Sserunkuma says due to low civic education of the masses “government has created a passive ignorant voter public.”

“Even when people vote, in Uganda figures are manipulated and you can’t be sure about anything,” he adds.

Prof Winston Muhwezi, a behavioural scientist at Makerere University and head of research at Advocacy Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE), attributes the decline in voter turnout to lost confidence on voter benefits. “There are many Ugandans who have lost interest in voting because of the many unfulfilled promises by politicians,” he says.

Prof Sabiti Makara, an economist at Makerere University School of Economics, says elections have lost meaning because of the continued manipulations of the outcome by the ruling party. 

“….the President [Museveni] and his National Resistance Movement party have used the power of the presidency, state resources, patronage, and intimidation to ensure a favourable outcome at every electoral turn,” he wrote in his analysis report titled ‘Presidential Term Limits in Uganda: Do Elections Provide an Avenue for Alternate Power Succession?’

Prof Muhwezi says the country may witness continued decline in voter turnout.

 “From my perspective, the voter turnout could be lower in the 2021 election. This is because of the circumstances such as fear of Covid-19 and voter education which is very low,” he notes. 

Will young supporters turn into voters?

Presidential candidate Kyagulanyi has wooed the youth to show up and vote for change. But Prof Muhwezi says most of the young people following Mr Kyagulanyi may not show up to vote on polling day. 

“We have a big proportion of the population who are 18 to 20 years that will not vote because they didn’t register,” he said.

Mr Sserunkuma says what is perceived as popularity may sometimes not translate into votes. 

“What we don’t know is whether the supporters of Mr Kyagulanyi will turn into election support. I don’t know whether the girls and boys running after him understand that they need to vote,” he says.