Prime
It’s Latin America versus Europe
On the one side you have unbridled passion, on the other cold, calculated professionalism. This might be Africa’s World Cup, but as far as the pot of gold goes, it really is between Latin America and Europe, the continents which have always won it and which fit those two contrasting descriptions I have just made.
An African team is not going to lift the trophy lets face it, but as a continent we are already winners, all the way from Nelson Mandela down to the babies destined to be born on July 11th.
The Latin Americans still revere the World Cup in its original form and for its intended purpose, and still embrace the true romance of the greatest spectacle of them all, while a good chunk of the European continent have been sucked in by the tribalism of their club sides, the thrill of their leagues and the financial power of the Champions League, and this tournament is increasingly becoming a distraction.
It is not complete doom and gloom there yet, as the passionate English fans and the Orange Army are sure to prove over the next few days, as well as the small hordes of Portuguese fans (there is a latent hope), Danish fans (they know their limits) or the Slovenians and Slovaks (over the moon to be here and not sure when the next time will be).
Yet, even if the Germans went absolutely mental as hosts in 2006 and the Italians were ecstatic as Fabio Cannavaro held the trophy, I can’t help but wonder how much of a thrill it would be in either country if they were to win it in far away South Africa.
The European conundrum, from the distant observer, is more real than they might care to admit. The English look like they are waiting to get beaten so they can pounce on and rip apart whoever the scapegoat will turn out to be now that David Beckham is not playing, for he would surely have been, while the French must live in the eternal hope that every next game is Raymond Domenech’s last.
The Spaniards should want it more as they have never won it, only having loved the long-forgotten feeling of being kings of Europe; but I would dare a Catalan to look me in the eye and swear he wouldn’t have preferred a Barcelona victory at Santiago Bernabeu in the CL final to Spain being crowned world champions next month.
And if the European press speaks for the people, you can’t help but wonder if the football is not going to be a sidekick to cynical bashing of the tournament, everything from Sepp Blatter through to crime all the way down to the vuvuzela as pollutant and health hazard.
Yet the Europeans are consummate professionals who will give 100 percent when they enter a tournament, detaching any emotions from the job at hand; and at an individual level a good many of the players still confess that the World Cup is the pinnacle of their careers.
The Latinos on the other hand put a lot of feeling into it, and while Beckenbauer, Lothar Mattheus and Cannavaro were methodical champions, Pele, Maradona, Romario and Ronaldo Da Lima rode on a wave of emotion to glory.
Paraguay (a well knit unit of worker-ants), Uruguay (a talented but unpredictable and inconsistent attacking force) and Chile (enough said) are here for the ride, so Latin America has TWO contenders against Europe’s SEVEN.
Even if outnumbered though, the two Latin American countries can more than hold their own and top my list of favourites.
Brazil
Felipe Scolari built a winning unit around a good goalkeeper, solid defence, good midfield cover, great team shape and tactics, and Dunga has done the same.
But the trio of Kaka-Robinho-Fabiano doesn’t come close to Ronaldo-Rivaldo-Ronaldinho 2002, so they will need help on the other end, especially since Fabiano doesn’t cut the figure of a World Cup winning striker. But this is the World Cup, and this is Brazil.
Argentina
Brazil won 24 years after Pele, this is 24 years after Maradona. Argentina’s ‘86 team had the world’s best player, had to beat Peru to qualify and opened its campaign against South Korea, same as this team.
If you don’t believe in destiny, then consider that they have a tough back four and three of the world’s most in-form strikers in Milito, Higuain and Tevez. And Angel Di Maria could be the revelation of the tournament. But who covers for Veron and Gutierrez in the middle?
Spain
First-time winners are a rarity, yet Argentina in ’78 and France in ’98 had two advantages – they were both hosts and didn’t have the added pressure of being overwhelming favourites.
But Spain are the best team going into the tournament, in every sense of the word.
Holland
After Spain, here are the second best bet for a first-time winner, an outfit with a decent goalkeeper, better defence than before, quality midfield cover, the Fab Four of van Persie, Sneijder, van der vaart and Robben, and good young subs. South Africa is a home of sorts too.
Italy
Old, uninspiring assembly with question marks over every department.
But when have they ever looked like world beaters anyway (except at Italia ’90 maybe?) They don’t look it, they just do it.
Germany
You can’t have your cake and eat it. What used to be an all-Arian unit is now a cosmopolitan assembly, and therefore the addition of youth and flair has come at the cost of ruthless efficiency. Mesut Ozil is an extremely skilful playmaker, but does he have the killer instinct of a Hassler or Moller? Boateng is no Jurgen Koller and Mario Gomez is no Rudi Voller. Then again, this is the World Cup and this is Germany.
England
Weaknesses at the back, in the middle, upfront and in their heads (the penalty-spot mental block for one). They can’t keep the ball, which is a prerequisite for victory on this stage, but there are goals everywhere and a manager addicted to winning.
Portugal
The defence is better than it is given credit for, and only one team in the whole tournament can keep the ball better.
Ronaldo can win games on his own and Dani is a clever schemer, but Nani is a near-fatal blow. Problem is, there are nights when they can’t buy a goal.
France
Question marks at the back, and public enemy number is the coach whose selection and tactics go beyond the bizarre. But we’ve seen teams go into tournaments in this state and ride on the back of a siege mentality to glory. If only a team with Ribery, Gourcruff, Anelka and Henry could stop looking to William Gallas for goals…
VERDICT: Spain. A World Cup in Africa is a tournament of many firsts.
