Why the State might let Bobi Wine proceed with his tours

It’s not clear as of filing with story if the State will bar Kyagulanyi from continuing with his rallies, with some scheduled in areas he has strong support such as Mayuge, Mbale, and Busia districts.

But some commentators say the regime will let the musician–turned–politician to carry on in a bid to restore faith Ugandans have lost in the electoral system.

“Parties have successful tours because President Museveni allows, not because of the law. We need to ascertain why NUP has now been allowed to hold their tours. My view is President Museveni wants the population to have trust in the electoral system,” says Charles Rwomushana, a former head of the political intelligence desk in the State House under the Internal Security Organisation (ISO). 

In the run-up to the 2016 elections, a poll done by Research World International indicated that 45 percent of Ugandans didn’t believe that the electoral process can lead to power change, while 32 percent didn’t believe that elections would be free and fair.

The 2016 General Election figures released by the Electoral Commission (EC) put voter turnout at 67.61 percent. With people losing interest in the election, Dr Kizza Besigye, who has contested for presidency four times, insisted that elections can’t bring about change. 

“This campaign is about changing that - that power goes back to the people, institutions become institutions of the people of Uganda and serve the people of Uganda…This campaign is about first and foremost the liberation of our country, the taking back of our power from the few people who monopolise it using instruments of terror,” Besigye said in 2015 after being nominated for the 2016 General Election. 

“We have to liberate our power back to the people. This campaign is about the taking back of our country… And this is why I have said without any shade of doubt that this campaign is a campaign of defiance, not of compliance. We can’t have a compliant campaign; complying with a dictatorship.”

In 2021, there was an expectation that general voter turn out would increase following the emergency of Kyagulanyi, a self-proclaimed “youth candidate” who was expected to increase the number of youth who constitute a majority of Uganda’s population. 

However, while Kyagulanyi captured the Opposition vote, he was unable to create a new youth constituency that could overcome existing political and regional cleavages and the voter turnout decreased from 67. 61 percent to 57 percent. 

In their paper titled Explaining Youth Political Mobilisation and its Absence: The Case of Bobi Wine and Uganda’s 2021 Election, Anna Macdonald, Arthur Owor, and Rebecca Tapscott say the election was discredited after the regime unleashed violence on Kyagulanyi’s supporters before and after the elections.

“The 2021 elections were the deadliest in Uganda since 1980. Other government measures frustrated the Opposition. For instance, the regime stopped registering voters in 2019, disenfranchising up to one million Ugandans who turned 18 in the intervening period. The regime also used Covid-19 containment measures as a pretext to limit campaigning by the political Opposition,” they wrote. 

The West seemed to reject the electoral process when it refused to participate in the monitoring process. 

“It is with profound disappointment that I announce the US Mission in Uganda’s decision to cancel our diplomatic observation of Uganda’s January 14 [2021] elections due to the decision by the Electoral Commission of Uganda to deny more than 75 percent of the US election observer accreditations requested,” Natalie Brown, then US ambassador to Uganda, said.

“With only 15 accreditations approved, it is not possible for the United States to meaningfully observe the conduct of Uganda’s elections at polling sites across the country,” she added. 

For its part, the EU, through Attilio Pacifici, its ambassador and head of the delegation to Uganda, said they wouldn’t participate in observing Uganda’s elections because the regime in Kampala hadn’t implemented the recommendations they had made after the 2016 elections. 

The by-elections that have been organised after the 2021 elections have all been punctuated by violence and vote rigging. 

The campaigns for the Soroti East by-elections that pitted Forum for Democratic Change’s (FDC) Moses Attan and National Resistance Movement’s (NRM) Herbert Ariko were peaceful, but violence broke out on the eve of the election, with cars without number plates patrolling the streets of Soroti, reminding voters of events that happened before the Kayunga District chairperson by-election in 2021 which was controversially won by NRM’s Andrew Muwonge, and the Omoro parliamentary by-election which was won by Andrew Ojok Oulanyah, again of NRM. 

The Bukedea LC5 by-election, which was won by NRM’s Mary Akol, was also riddled with violence and election rigging claims, forcing President Museveni to instruct the State House’s Anti-Corruption Unit to investigate the matter. 

This resulted in the arrest and charging of Bukedea Resident District Commissioner (RDC) William Tukei, District Police Commander Charles Okoto, Gombolola Internal Security Officer Maimud Oluka, and seven others.

They were charged with robbery and assaulting David Stephen Omagor, a former Bukedea by-election candidate, and were remanded for their roles in the violent by-elections.

While the by-elections have been marred with violence, Gen Muhoozi has been traversing the country with no clear message, with many insisting he is getting ready to aim at the presidency either in 2026, or five years after that. 

When he was in Teso sub-region in August, Muhoozi attended activities that included a football tournament dubbed MK [Muhoozi Kainerugaba] Teso Football Cup, and conducted a Barraza. 
He arrived in Teso through Bukedea District and was welcomed by Speaker of Parliament Anita Among, and her Deputy Thomas Tayebwa.

Muhoozi’s message, which he typically read off a small chit, was aimed at the youth. 
“Whenever we meet them we encourage all our farmers and land owners to avoid the practice of land fragmentation,” Muhoozi said. “The youth can’t be only dancing. No, you should also have some good ideas for the country.”

In a sign of where power lies – though Vice President Jessica Alupo comes from Teso – the MPs told the First Son to remind his father about the issue of cattle compensation in the sub-region.

The MPs expressed concern over the delay and perceived discriminatory approach in the cattle compensation programme launched in 2022, saying the livestock compensation provided does not adequately match the losses suffered during the stormy times in Teso. 

Despite government’s revision of compensation rates from Shs600,000 to Shs1 million for each cow before the launch, many claimants received less compensation than anticipated.
It’s not clear what exactly Muhoozi is trying achieve, but his supporters claim the rallies are indicative that he can mount a serious presidential campaign.

“We think we have been able to show that we are ready for the presidency,” says Linus Ngopek, the Kibanda North MP and supporter of Muhoozi. “I think we have shown we can get support across the country.”

For Kyagulanyi, while on this countywide tour, he has stayed clear of the defiance message in which he calls the citizens to bring down the Museveni regime even before the next elections. 

In the western town of Mbarara, he talked about government extravagance amid financial hardships. 
“This is because the country spends much on things that don’t address the needs of local people, but rather high class. The taxes we pay should be able to give us services, but not equip the police with tear gas to harass the citizens,” Kyagulanyi said.

While Kyagulanyi is traversing the country, the eye will be kept on security agencies if they don’t crush his rallies.

“The country has been programmed that elections can’t bring about change because of election rigging instances, but Museveni wants to cleanse himself and he needs legitimacy. That’s why he is allowing Kyagulanyi to move across the country,” Rwomushana says. 

Kyagulanyi’s supporters don’t seem to share that view. They think as the Opposition leader criss-crosses the country and attracts bigger crowds, the State might be forced back to its underhand methods. 

“I can assure you that next week we shall be here talking about how NUP people have been beaten during these tours. What the government is doing now is they are still studying the situation,” says Betty Nambooze, the Mukono Municipality MP.

Museveni has been under pressure from the West following the enactment of the Ant-Homosexuality Act, but with Kyagulanyi moving across the country without being met by teargas as the norm has been for many opposition politicians, the President – who has been in power since 1986 – might claim to have democratic credentials.