FDC’s faction could realign 2026 political landscape

Earlier in 2018, FDC’s former president Mugisha Muntu departed from the party after he failed to resolve ‘irreconcilable differences’ with the party president Patrick Amuriat, after fractious internal polls. In the November 2017 election, Mr Besigye backed his then erstwhile ally, Mr Amuriat against Mr Muntu in an election that pitted those perceived to be ‘radical activists’ against ‘moderates’ in the party. 
 
But in August 2023, Besigye accused the FDC party Secretary General Nandala Mafabi and Mr Amuriat of receiving ‘dirty money’ and feeding from the same trough with the government. Besigye claimed that he received a questionable amount of Shs300m from Mr Nandala, which he later returned, barely after getting a tip from intelligence that the FDC leadership had accepted bribes from the State House meant to be used to co-opt and enfeeble the Opposition as it had done with the pliant Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) and Democratic Party (DP). An FDC elders committee led by former Kagoma MP Frank Nabwiso concluded that there was no incriminating evidence to pin Mr Nandala and Mr Amuriat.

Largely led by the Opposition doyen Besigye and Lukwago, who is meant to rekindle the passion of the vote-rich Buganda, the new formation will be confronted by the state that could be reluctant to allow a level playing field.

In 2020, shortly before the 2021 General Election, Mr Robert Kyagulanyi was compelled to enter a contractual obligation with Mr Moses Kibalama, the founder of the National Unity Reconciliation and Development Party (NURP) who handed over his party that later became the National Unity Platform (NUP).

Mr Kibalama later claimed that he did not authorise the transfer of the party to Mr Kyagulanyi. He alleged that the NUP leadership failed to fulfill their bargain to pay him $5 million. This resulted in a protracted legal fight, which he later lost. 

But Dr Kisekka Ntale, a political science lecturer at Makerere University posits that the State may be reluctant to clamp down on the Katonga faction on the premise that it is aware that Mr Besigye’s halo continues to slip and this would be a chance to sanitise its image. Instead, he says the mainstream FDC could engage in dark arts to frustrate the Katonga faction. 

“The break-way faction, FDC in the current status quo, had lost the sharp appeal amongst the electorate. The trouble is that parties often suffer from the residual effects of the individual merit system. Once the brand of the major leader is in decline, the entire stock goes down like a pack of cards. The state intelligentsia is aware that his brand has dwindled, right now the biggest fear is in Kyagulanyi and NUP,” he says.

He says the mainstream FDC could rely on informal methods such as deploying vigilantes and though these challenges may be easy to surmount, they can be quite distracting. 
However, Mr Besigye— who has been written off, has in the past upset the apple cart to draw huge crowds. In 2016, he used his oratory skills to gain a broad appeal by preaching the message of resilience on the rostrum.

Mr Timothy Kalyegira who is a veteran journalist and researcher, argues: “The public is more interested in the message than name. Once Buganda felt DP had been compromised by the NRM State, it simply switched allegiance to NUP.  What happened to the DP will happen to the FDC once FDC-Katonga forms a new party. Besigye as its figurehead will bring the identity to FDC members the ‘great taste’ they have believed in since 2004.”

However, Mr Kalyegira argues that the FDC faction, which has been eclipsed by NUP indicates that the new Besigye-led Katonga party should not assume it will get wide support. 
“The hope put in Besigye in 2001-2006, was that he would cause a change in government. The new party must give Ugandans new hope of that and not become a re-branded FDC with the same election strategies that have yielded no change at State House,” he said.
FDC party MPs who are aligned with the Katonga including Kiira Municipality MP Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda and Buhweju MP Francis Mwijukye may need
to rely on individual merit to retain their seats on the premise that the new party may not gain traction with the electorate.

Beyond its ideological philosophy, if the party is legally allowed to register, it will need to offer clarity regarding whether it intends to field a torch-bearer in the 2026 polls. In 2021, Mr Besigye while declining to contest as the FDC flag bearer in what he claimed would be a sham election told party delegates at Najjanankumbi that, “The 2016 results declaration forms are still in our hands. We won the elections and when we demanded an audit through the Swedish agency that had agreed to do it, President Museveni chickened out after realising that we had him this time. We signed a memorandum of understanding and Mr Museveni also signed on it but all in vain.”  

He added: “I declared myself as the President because I won the elections and I was cheated. I was charged with treason for declaring myself President, which I admitted in court but to date, the final ruling has not taken place because they fear and do not want the evidence to come out.”

Can the mainstream FDC remain vibrant amidst these accusations or could this spell the death knell of the party? 
“The Najjanankumbi faction lacks the firepower to articulate issues like some of the firebrand members including Besigye, Lukwago, and Ssemujju who have left. They could lose their broad appeal because they have gone into a marriage with the State,” Mr Kisekka says.

He argues that the breakaway must be looked at, in a broader picture. 
“A political party is an associative common purpose vehicle. When we form a political party, we are convinced that this is our agenda, we sit into this vehicle driving this agenda and ideology. Once the members feel uncomfortable, the logical thing to do is to jump ship and join another truck,” he said.