Prime
What to train our eyes on this year
Raymond Mujuni
What you need to know:
The first and brightest warning light is that inflation will be with us for the better part of the year – not double-digit but above 7% for at least more than half the year
There’s a fair amount of warning lights on the 2023 economic dashboard that it is likely to be a rough year. The first and brightest warning light is that inflation will be with us for the better part of the year – not double-digit but above 7% for at least more than half the year.
The second is that the taxman has indicated how worried they are that the tax-to-GDP ratio is still low. This is an important number for government to be able to access more loans, just as it is an important number for government to finance its ambitious agenda.
To raise this tax to GDP ratio, the government isn’t going to tax farmers who have increased productivity, or idle landlords who are boxing us off Kampala roads just to go to cocktails and show friends how much land they have back in the village, it’s going to tax you and I that make an honest income, being wiped away by inflation.
The good news is, the fuel process is coming down so basic commodities will get back into the range of affordable.
This year, taxpaying Ugandans need to have an honest conversation about the size of our political service – it is broad, ineffective in most parts, lives in luxury, and affects productive investment. We also need to have an honest conversation about whether we need to spend more money providing services like health and education or paying salaries and taking gambles on infrastructure. We need to insist that people we pay to do infrastructure work, deliver on time, deliver the quality paid for and deliver without asking for more money. We also need to have a very honest conversation on whether we still need a central government deciding for everyone or federated/devolved governments paying allegiance to the centre but quickening decision-making and spreading the risk evenly.
I also imagine we need to have a conversation about the runaway income inequality. There are people reading this column spending the annual salary of their waiters/waitresses in one swipe every night. Granted, it’s your money, but is it really your money alone?
The politics and history of the Middle East in Bugolobi, where many bars furthering our inequality are located should wake up the party-goers there; fierce fighting happened in that area between the monied and secured of Mbuya and their lowly paid workers in the slums and market. There are people alive who will tell us we haven’t learned a thing from history but the ticking time bomb that our inequality is will be a political problem to solve this year.
Lastly, I pray we carry hope into this new year. Hope that our individual struggles contribute to a large whole, hope that not all is lost, and hope that we will see a better day.
Have a good 2023!
