Prime
Putting the Daily Monitor opinion polls in context
Mr Ofwono Opondo speaks for the NRM party.
What you need to know:
Most of the civil war related issues and grievances in West Nile, Acholi, Lango and Teso regions that Dr Besigye exploited in previous elections, and made him get near block votes have been successfully and effectively resolved by President Museveni.
The opinion polls commissioned by the Daily Monitor that was published last week giving NRM presidential candidate Yoweri Museveni 59.9 per cent lead has fouled the festive season for some of the presumed leading contenders. While the NRM acknowledges the trend, we believe from our own surveys that Museveni will get a much higher percentage.
In fact, President Museveni has said he expects 80 per cent, while we, the rest of his handlers believe he will get at least 70 per cent. We also think a 5.9 per cent for Mr Amama Mbabazi is very high as our survey shows just 2.7 per cent at the most, and his handlers have admitted that he isn’t as yet as visible two months into the campaigns.
While talking to the media two weeks ago, Museveni said his campaign trail so far showed him a celebratory mood around the country. He wrote an article in which he listed security, peace and stability prevailing throughout the country, completion of the rehabilitation process, universal access to and successes in basic services, healthcare, education, water, electricity and transportation network as some of the things generating celebrations among most Ugandans.
In addition, Museveni said the many new development projects underway by the government, private sector and successes by individual Ugandans across the country from Kisoro to Karamoja, Bundibugyo to Moyo and Adjumani, and Busia to Bulisa districts were un-precedented, and therefore a good and very firm foundation to thrust Uganda into a lower middle income country by 2021.
Many Ugandans putting in daily and consistent efforts believe this is true, and hence having hope in brighter future for Uganda, the reason perhaps the majority in the Daily Monitor survey said Uganda was moving in the right direction.
For the NRM, the massive numbers from its membership registration even when bloated, the returns from the parliamentary and local government nominations, which shows the combined Opposition could not front candidates in many electoral areas, gives additional confidence of victory in the election outcomes in February 2016. While NRM has candidates for all the 409 MP seats, FDC managed just 345, DP 81 and UPC even fewer. NRM already has 12 MPs and District LCV chairpersons un-opposed.
Dr Kizza Besigye, the FDC presidential candidate, in his usual mean spirit has not only disputed and rejected the poll findings; he has had the audacity to allege the figures were cooked, and a handiwork of the State machinery to favour President Museveni. Besigye ought to swallow the political humble pie and perhaps overhaul his entire strategy. Unfortunately, that may already be too late for him.
And like Besigye, there are those in the NRM who also think the recent favourable polls’ results is a sinister political bait by the Daily Monitor, which they say plans to concoct future polls showing Museveni on the decline. And so, should NRM accept the results from this poll, it will find itself in a dilemma to dispute or reject the subsequent ‘bad news.'
However, for Dr Besigye, contrary to his bravado, even the numbers from the 2011 elections in which he dropped from 37 per cent in 2006 to 26 per cent, don’t favour him. He should be humble enough to admit as much. Also, in 2006, FDC won 39 MP seats, but in 2011 fell to 33, but later through by-elections recovered two hence the current 35 MPs. Out of the 112 districts, FDC has just two LCV chairpersons in Gulu and Serere!
And that is not all Dr Besigye’s political headache. From 2001 Dr Besigye had been supported by the traditional Opposition parties and their leaders who have shifted alliance to a ‘newer’ Opposition figure Mbabazi. Clearly, Dr Besigye does not have DP and UPC leaders, and perhaps most supporters of those parties behind him. Even within FDC, Dr Besigye no longer enjoys the universal support as he did in 2006 and 2011.
Finally, most of the civil war related issues and grievances in West Nile, Acholi, Lango and Teso regions that Dr Besigye exploited in previous elections, and made him get near block votes have been successfully and effectively resolved by President Museveni, and hence the positive shift since 2006.
Mr Ofwono Opondo speaks for the NRM party. [email protected]
